Three Essays on the College Admissions Process by Daniel M. Leeds

174 Pages·2013·1.71 MB·English

Three Essays on the College Admissions
Process
by
Daniel M. Leeds
A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment
of the requirements for the degree of
Doctor of Philosophy
(Economics)
in the University of Michigan
2013
Doctoral Committee:
Professor Jeffrey A. Smith, Co-Chair
Professor Brian P. McCall, Co-Chair
Professor Charles C. Brown
Assistant Professor Kevin M. Stange
To my family and to Rachel,
for their constant love and support.
ii
I would like to thank Dan Ackerberg, Emily Beam, Charlie Brown, Emily Collins,
Lindsay Daugherty, Steve DesJardins, John DiNardo, Sue Dynarski, Rachel Ezzell,
Rob Garlick, Jesse Gregory, Brad Hershbein, Chris House, Bob Hunt, Josh Hyman,
BrianJacob, HyunjeeKim, EvaLeeds, MichaelLeeds, PacoMartorell, BrianMcCall,
Isaac McFarlin, Edie Ostapik, Jeff Smith, Kevin Stange, Jacob Vigdor, Elias Walsh,
Ophira Vishkin, Laura Zimmermann, participants at Michigan’s Labor Lunch and
Causal Inference in Education Research Seminars and at the MEA conference, and
any others whom I have not mentioned above for their advice and assistance, without
which this would have been impossible.
iii
Table of Contents
Dedication ii
Acknowledgements iii
List of Tables vi
List of Figures ix
Introduction 1
Chapter 1: The Impact of Admissions Policies and Test Prep on SAT
Scores 5
Introduction 6
Background and Literature 11
Model 18
Data 28
Simulations 35
Results 37
Conclusion 44
Chapter 2: Does Student Effort Respond to Incentives? Evidence from
Automatic College Admissions 61
Introduction 62
The Texas Top Ten Percent Law 65
iv
Literature and Background 68
Regression Discontinuity 72
Data 77
Results 82
Conclusion 93
Chapter 3: Iowa’s National Scholars Award and the Efficiency of Merit
Aid: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis 118
Introduction 119
Background and Literature 121
Model and Theory 125
Data 132
Results 136
Conclusion 144
Appendix: Flagship Characteristics 163
v
List of Tables
Table1.1: Summary Statistics by Tests Taken 49
Table 1.1.A: Demographics 49
Table 1.1.B: Expectations 49
Table 1.1.C: College Outcomes 50
Table 1.1.D: Prep Usage 50
Table 1.2: Summary Statistics by PSAT Score Reporting 51
Table 1.2.A: Demographics 51
Table 1.2.B: Expectations 51
Table 1.2.C: College Outcomes 52
Table 1.2.D: Prep Usage 52
Table 1.3: SES and SAT Sittings by PSAT Score Reporting 53
Table 1.3.A: Socioeconomic Quartiles 53
Table 1.3.B: Observed SAT Sittings 53
Table 1.4: Prep Usage by SES Quartile 53
Table 1.5: Data Moments 54
Table 1.6: Fixed Values 54
Table 1.7: Calibrated Parameter Values 55
Table 1.8: Moment Matching 56
vi
Table 1.8.A: Score Moment Matching 56
Table 1.8.B: Behavioral Moment Matching 56
Table 1.8.C: Overall 56
Table 1.9: Counterfactual Outcomes 57
Table 1.9.A: Counterfactual Testing 57
Table 1.9.B: Counterfactual Applications 57
Table 1.9.C: Counterfactual Costs 58
Table 1.9.D: Score Accuracy 58
Table 2.1: Continuity of Student Characteristics 105
Table 2.2: First-Stage Outcomes 105
Table 2.3: Probability of Obtaining at Least a Recommended-Level Diploma 106
Table 2.4: Probability of Obtaining a Distinguished-Level Diploma 107
Table 2.5: Number of Courses Taken in 12th Grade 108
Table 2.6: Difference in Courses Taken 109
Table 2.7: Number of Credits Taken in 12th Grade 110
Table 2.8: Difference in Credits Taken 111
Table 2.9: 12th Grade GPA 112
Table 2.10: 12th Grade GPA (1st Semester Only) 113
Table 2.11: 12th Grade GPA (2nd Semester Only) 114
Table 2.12: Difference in GPAs 115
Table 3.1: Summary Statistics 155
Table 3.2: RD Estimates Without Additional Covariates 156
vii
Table 3.2.A: 2009-2011 Pooled 156
Table 3.2.B: 2005-2008 Pooled 157
Table 3.2.C: 2004 158
Table 3.3: RD Estimates With Additional Covariates 159
Table 3.3.A: 2009-2011 Pooled 159
Table 3.3.B: 2005-2008 Pooled 160
Table 3.3.C: 2004 161
Appendix: Flagship Characteristics 163
viii
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: 2-Test VC Model 46
Figure 1.2: 2-Test Leeds Model 47
Figure 1.3: Maximization Problems 48
Figure 2.1: Enrollment 96
Figure 2.2: Recommended or Distinguished Diplomas 97
Figure 2.3:Distinguished Diplomas 98
Figure 2.4: Classes Taken 99
Figure 2.5: Difference in Classes Taken 100
Figure 2.6: Honors/AP Credits Taken 101
Figure 2.7: Difference in Honors/AP Credits Taken 102
Figure 2.8: Senior Year GPA 103
Figure 2.8: Difference in GPA 104
Figure 3.1: Award Comparison Rate 148
Figure 3.2.A: McCrary Density Tests, 2009-2011 149
Figure 3.2.B: McCrary Density Tests, 2005-2008 150
Figure 3.2.C: McCrary Density Tests, 2004 151
Figure 3.3: RAI Graphs, Bandwidth 30 152
ix
Figure 3.4: AIS Flat Rate Graphs, Bandwidth 20 153
Figure 3.5: AIS Tiered Graphs, Bandwidth 10 154
x