Thinking in bets : making smarter decisions when you don’t have all the facts

227 Pages·2009·2.14 MB·English

by  Annie Duke

Portfolio/Penguin
An imprint of Penguin Random House LLC
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New York, New York 10014
Copyright © 2018 by Annie Duke
Penguin supports copyright. Copyright fuels creativity, encourages diverse voices, promotes free speech,
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Duke, Annie, 1965-author.
Title: Thinking in bets : making smarter decisions when you don’t have all the facts / Annie Duke.
Description: New York : Portfolio, 2018. | Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2017042666 | ISBN 9780735216358 (hardback) | ISBN 9780735216365 (epub)
Subjects: LCSH: Management games. | Decision making. | BISAC: BUSINESS & ECONOMICS /
Decision-Making & Problem Solving. | PSYCHOLOGY Cognitive Psychology. | BUSINESS &
ECONOMICS Strategic Planning.
Classification: LCC HD30.6 .D85 2018 | DDC 658.4/0353—dc23 LC record available at
https://lccn.loc.gov/2017042666
Version_1
To Lila and Henry Gleitman, generous of heart and intellect
CONTENTS
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
INTRODUCTION Why This Isn’t a Poker Book
CHAPTER 1 Life Is Poker, Not Chess
Pete Carroll and the Monday Morning Quarterbacks
The hazards of resulting
Quick or dead: our brains weren’t built for rationality
Two-minute warning
Dr. Strangelove
Poker vs. chess
A lethal battle of wits
“I’m not sure”: using uncertainty to our advantage
Redefining wrong
CHAPTER 2 Wanna Bet?
Thirty days in Des Moines
We’ve all been to Des Moines
All decisions are bets
Most bets are bets against ourselves
Our bets are only as good as our beliefs
Hearing is believing
“They saw a game”
The stubbornness of beliefs
Being smart makes it worse
Wanna bet?
Redefining confidence
CHAPTER 3 Bet to Learn: Fielding the Unfolding Future
Nick the Greek, and other lessons from the Crystal Lounge
Outcomes are feedback
Luck vs. skill: fielding outcomes
Working backward is hard: the SnackWell’s Phenomenon
“If it weren’t for luck, I’d win every one”
All-or-nothing thinking rears its head again
People watching
Other people’s outcomes reflect on us
Reshaping habit
“Wanna bet?” redux
The hard way
CHAPTER 4 The Buddy System
“Maybe you’re the problem, do you think?”
The red pill or the blue pill?
Not all groups are created equal
The group rewards focus on accuracy2
“One Hundred White Castles . . . and a large chocolate shake”: how accountability improves decision-
making
The group ideally exposes us to a diversity of viewpoints
Federal judges: drift happens
Social psychologists: confirmatory drift and Heterodox Academy
Wanna bet (on science)?
CHAPTER 5 Dissent to Win
CUDOS to a magician
Mertonian communism: more is more
Universalism: don’t shoot the message
Disinterestedness: we all have a conflict of interest, and it’s contagious
Organized skepticism: real skeptics make arguments and friends
Communicating with the world beyond our group
CHAPTER 6 Adventures in Mental Time Travel
Let Marty McFly run into Marty McFly
Night Jerry
Moving regret in front of our decisions
A flat tire, the ticker, and a zoom lens
“Yeah, but what have you done for me lately?”
Tilt
Ulysses contracts: time traveling to precommit
Decision swear jar
Reconnaissance: mapping the future
Scenario planning in practice
Backcasting: working backward from a positive future
Premortems: working backward from a negative future
Dendrology and hindsight bias (or, Give the chainsaw a rest)
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
NOTES
SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR FURTHER READING
INDEX
INTRODUCTION
Why This Isn’t a Poker Book
W
hen I was twenty-six, I thought I had my future mapped out. I had grown
up on the grounds of a famous New Hampshire prep school, where my
father chaired the English department. I had graduated from Columbia
University with degrees in English and psychology. I had attended graduate
school at the University of Pennsylvania, where I won a fellowship from the
National Science Foundation, earning a master’s and completing my doctoral
course work in cognitive psychology.
But I got sick right before finishing my dissertation. I took a leave of
absence, left Penn, got married, and moved to a small town in Montana. Not
surprisingly, my NSF fellowship didn’t cover my cross-country experiment in
adulting, so I needed money. My brother Howard, a professional poker player
who had already made the final table of the World Series of Poker by this time,
suggested I check out the legal poker games in Billings. This suggestion wasn’t
as random as it might sound. I grew up in a competitive, games-playing family,
and Howard had brought me out to Las Vegas a few times for vacations I
couldn’t otherwise afford on my stipend. I had watched him play, and played in
a few low-stakes games myself.
I fell in love with poker right away. It wasn’t the bright lights of Vegas that
lured me in, but the thrill of playing and testing my skills in the basement of a
Billings bar named the Crystal Lounge. I had a lot to learn, but I was excited to
learn it. My plan was to earn some money during this break from school, stay on
the academic path, and continue playing poker as a hobby.
My temporary break turned into a twenty-year career as a professional poker
player. When I retired from playing in 2012, I had won a World Series of Poker
gold bracelet, the WSOP Tournament of Champions, and the NBC National
Heads-Up Championship, and earned more than $4 million in poker
tournaments. Howard, meanwhile, went on to win two World Series bracelets, a
tournaments. Howard, meanwhile, went on to win two World Series bracelets, a
pair of titles at the Hall of Fame Poker Classic, two World Poker Tour
championships, and over $6.4 million in tournament prize money.
To say that I had strayed from the academic path might seem like an
understatement. But I realized pretty quickly that I hadn’t really left academics
so much as moved to a new kind of lab for studying how people learn and make
decisions. A hand of poker takes about two minutes. Over the course of that
hand, I could be involved in up to twenty decisions. And each hand ends with a
concrete result: I win money or I lose money. The result of each hand provides
immediate feedback on how your decisions are faring. But it’s a tricky kind of
feedback because winning and losing are only loose signals of decision quality.
You can win lucky hands and lose unlucky ones. Consequently, it’s hard to
leverage all that feedback for learning.
The prospect of some grizzled ranchers in Montana systematically taking
my money at a poker table forced me to find practical ways to either solve this
learning puzzle or go broke. I was lucky, early in my career, to meet some
exceptional poker players and learn from them how they handled not only luck
and uncertainty but also the relationship between learning and decision-making.
Over time, those world-class poker players taught me to understand what a
bet really is: a decision about an uncertain future. The implications of treating
decisions as bets made it possible for me to find learning opportunities in
uncertain environments. Treating decisions as bets, I discovered, helped me
avoid common decision traps, learn from results in a more rational way, and
keep emotions out of the process as much as possible.
In 2002, thanks to my friend and super-successful poker player Erik Seidel
turning down a speaking engagement, a hedge-fund manager asked me to speak
to a group of traders and share some poker tips that might apply to securities
trading. Since then, I have spoken to professional groups across many industries,
looking inward at the approach I learned in poker, continually refining it, and
helping others apply it to decisions in financial markets, strategic planning,
human resources, law, and entrepreneurship.
The good news is that we can find practical work-arounds and strategies to
keep us out of the traps that lie between the decisions we’d like to be making and
the execution of those decisions. The promise of this book is that thinking in bets
will improve decision-making throughout our lives. We can get better at
separating outcome quality from decision quality, discover the power of saying,
“I’m not sure,” learn strategies to map out the future, become less reactive
decision-makers, build and sustain pods of fellow truthseekers to improve our
decision-makers, build and sustain pods of fellow truthseekers to improve our
decision process, and recruit our past and future selves to make fewer emotional
decisions.
I didn’t become an always-rational, emotion-free decision-maker from
thinking in bets. I still made (and make) plenty of mistakes. Mistakes, emotions,
losing—those things are all inevitable because we are human. The approach of
thinking in bets moved me toward objectivity, accuracy, and open-mindedness.
That movement compounds over time to create significant changes in our lives.
So this is not a book about poker strategy or gambling. It is, however, about
things poker taught me about learning and decision-making. The practical
solutions I learned in those smoky poker rooms turned out to be pretty good
strategies for anyone trying to be a better decision-maker.
• • •
Thinking in bets starts with recognizing that there are exactly two things that
determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck. Learning
to recognize the difference between the two is what thinking in bets is all about.