Think Smart - Act Smart: Avoiding The Business Mistakes That Even Intelligent People Make

179 Pages·2007·3.02 MB·English

by  J. Nightingale

Think Smart—
Act Smart
Avoiding the Business
Mistakes That Even
Intelligent People Make
Jim Nightingale
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Think Smart—Act Smart

Think Smart—
Act Smart
Avoiding the Business
Mistakes That Even
Intelligent People Make
Jim Nightingale
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Thisbookisprintedonacid-freepaper.(cid:1)1
Copyright#2008byJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.Allrightsreserved.
PublishedbyJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,Hoboken,NewJersey.
PublishedsimultaneouslyinCanada.
WileyBicentennialLogo:RichardJ.Pacifico.
Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmittedinanyformor
byanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording,scanning,orotherwise,exceptas
permittedunderSection107or108ofthe1976UnitedStatesCopyrightAct,withouteithertheprior
writtenpermissionofthePublisher,orauthorizationthroughpaymentoftheappropriateper-copyfeeto
theCopyrightClearanceCenter,Inc.,222RosewoodDrive,Danvers,MA01923,978-750-8400,fax
978-646-8600,oronthewebatwww.copyright.com.RequeststothePublisherforpermissionshould
beaddressedtothePermissionsDepartment,JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,111RiverStreet,Hoboken,NJ
07030,201-748-6011,fax[phone],oronlineathttp://www.wiley.com/go/permissions.
LimitofLiability/DisclaimerofWarranty:Whilethepublisherandauthorhaveusedtheirbesteffortsin
preparingthisbook,theymakenorepresentationsorwarrantieswithrespecttotheaccuracyor
completenessofthecontentsofthisbookandspecificallydisclaimanyimpliedwarrantiesof
merchantabilityorfitnessforaparticularpurpose.Nowarrantymaybecreatedorextendedbysales
representativesorwrittensalesmaterials.Theadviceandstrategiescontainedhereinmaynotbesuitable
foryoursituation.Youshouldconsultwithaprofessionalwhereappropriate.Neitherthepublishernor
authorshallbeliableforanylossofprofitoranyothercommercialdamages,includingbutnotlimitedto
special,incidental,consequential,orotherdamages.
Forgeneralinformationonourotherproductsandservices,ortechnicalsupport,pleasecontactour
CustomerCareDepartmentwithintheUnitedStatesat800–762–2974,outsidetheUnitedStatesat
317-572-3993orfax317-572-4002.
Wileyalsopublishesitsbooksinavarietyofelectronicformats.Somecontentthatappearsinprintmay
notbeavailableinelectronicbooks.
FormoreinformationaboutWileyproducts,visitourWebsiteathttp://www.wiley.com.
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData:
Nightingale,Jim,1960–
Thinksmart—actsmart:avoidingthebusinessmistakesthatevenintelligentpeoplemake/Jim
Nightingale.
p.cm.
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN978-0-470-17129-5(cloth)
1.Decisionmaking. 2.Errors. 3.Management. I.Title.
HD30.23.N5252008
658.4003—dc22 2007022148
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
To my wife

&
Contents
Preface ix
Acknowledgements xv
CHAPTER1 Avoiding Error: An Introduction 1
TheRight Goals 5
TheRight Information(to the Right People at
the Right Time) 6
TheRight People 7
TheRight Process 8
TheRight Habits 8
CHAPTER2 Wishful Thinking 13
Science 15
Cases 17
SirArthur Conan Doyle andthe Cottingly Fairies 17
Financial Euphoria 27
South Sea Bubble 29
Dot.Com Crash: ValueAmerica 33
Appeasement ofNazi Germany 39
Medical Quackery 47
Missing Airport 50
CHAPTER3 Mythical Thinking 57
Science 59
Cases 61
Failures ofProphecy: TheMythofthe
End ofthe World 61
Tanks andHorses: TheMythofthe Cavalry 68
Business Myths 74
Swiss Watch Industry 76
Long-TermCapitalManagement 78
vii