Theoryo f International Politics KENNETH N. WALTZ UniverosfCi atlyi foBrneirak,e ley .. ...... Addison-WeslPeuyb lishiCnogm pany ReadingM,a ssachusetts MenlPoa rkC,a lifornia Londo•n A msterdam DonM illOsn,t ar•i oS ydnye Thibso oki sin the Addison-SWeersiilnee syP oliSticiceanlc e Copyrig©h 1t9 7b9y A ddison-WPesulbelyi sChoimnpga nIyn,cP .h ilipcpoinpesy ri1g9h7tb9 y Addsion-Weslye uPblshiingC ompanIyn,c . Alrilgh tsr eserved. Nop aroftt hpisu blitoicnam ayb er eproducsetdo,re id na r etriesyvseatml,o r tramnistt,edi na nfoyrm orb ya nmye anse,l ectromneicch,a nipcahlo,t ocorpecyoinrgd,oi rno gth;e r wisew,i thotuthp er iworirtt enpe rmissiono ft hpeub ilshe.rP rintientd h Ue nitSetda otfeA mse rica. Publisshimedu ltaneo uslyi nC anadaL.i broafryC o ngresCsa taClaorgNd o .7 8-62549. ISB� J-201-Ua34�-3 ABCUlFGttlJK-MA-79 Preface Theyo irsf unmdeanttaosl c iceena,n dt heoraierr eoso tienid d aesT.h eN atoinal ScieFnocuen dawtaiswo ilnl itnobg e otn a ni debae feoi rcto ubledw elelx pilnaed. Thef ollowpiaengsgI, h op,ej sutiy fthFeo nudtaoin'jsu degmntO.th eri nstitu tions hmeeal lpnoegtd h een dlreosastd ot heyo.Ir nr eceyneta trhsI en sttueito f InetrnatioSnutadlia ensdt hCeo mmieteto nR esecahar tt hUen ivseiyr otfC afloir niaB,ek relehye,le pdf incaemn yw orka,s t hCee ntfeorIr n etrnatioAnfafilara st Harvarddi eda rlFielelros.wh ifprso tmh Geu ggenhFeoiumn daatnidfo rno tmh e Insttief toutrh Seut dyo fW orlPdo tliiecsn albed tmoce o mptleae drafotf t he manusicpartn da lstoor leaept robmlsoe fi tnerntaionpaotlli-ictahle otryo dweir issuiens pthhielo opshoyfs cienFcoer. l taheterpt uprosteh,pe h ilohysd oeppart mento ft hLeo ndoSnc hooofEl c onompirocvisd eadne xtciinagn df rnideleyn vi ronmte.n RobeJretr vainsdJ ohRnu ggrieea mdy n ext-tdor-alwfaitst tcha re and in sitgt hhtaw ouladma zaen ynoeu nacqauitnewdi tthh ecirirt itcaallte sRn.o bert Arta ndG lennS nyder maaldseto e llcionmmge ntsJ.o hCna vanha cgollected quanttiioefsp reilmianryd at;Sa etphePne tercsoontnsru ctetdh Tea beJsf oudni n thAep pnedxi;H arryH ansocno mipletdh bei bglriaophayn,d dNianZee linis k expertcloyp ewdi tahn u nerletninflgo wo f t.aT phersohu mganyd isscsuiso,n mainwliyt mhy w ifaen dw itghr dauaet sutdenattBs r andeainsdB erkye,la e numbeorft hpeo inItm sa kewe rdee voepled. Mosotf C haeprt2sa nd3 ,a nd soofmC eh aeprt1sa nd6ap, peairn m y1 975 essayt;hy e werpea sro tft hoeri ginpallaf no trh sib ookH.e raend thee rhIa ev drawpna ssafgoremso hteers ysasa ndf roamn e arlbiooekrT. h esean do hter soucreasp peairnt hbebi liaopghrnye rat heen do ft hbeoo k. Becauas teh ery oisn evecro mptleedI,h avbee ernle ucnttta od eclea trhe manucsrtid pon.eI d os on ow-wihtouats enosfec omplteiobnu,wt iht dae ep sihgo fr elainedafd eespe nosfeg rtaitudteot hmea noyr gantiziaoannsdi ndiidv uals hwehlop meed. HarbosdrieM,a ine K.N.W. Jul1y9 78· Contents l Chapter lawasn dT heories 1 2 Chapter ReductiTohneiosrti es 18 3 Chaprt e SysteAmpipcr oacahnedTs h eories 38 4 Chapter ReductiaonndSiy sstt emTihce ories 60 5 Chapter PolitSitcruaclt ures 79 16 Chapter AnarcOhridce arnsdB alanocfPe osw er 102 7 Chapter StructCuaruasle sE caonndo mic Effects 129 8 Chapter StructCuaruasalen sdM ilitEafryf ects 161 9 Chapter TheM anagemoefnI tn ternaAtfifoaniarls 194 Appendix 211 Bibliography 223 Index 241 I LaW'sa ndTh eories Iw ritteh ibso okw itthh raeiesm inm indf:is tr,t oe xamitnhee oroifei stn er natiopnoalli taincdas p proacthote hsse u bjmeacttt tehra mta kes omcel aitmo beintgh eoretiimcpaolrltya nt;t osc eocnosntdrat,u h ceto orfiy n ternatpioolnal ititchsa rte medtiheeds e feocftp sr esetnhte orainedst ;h irtdoe, x amisnoem e applicaotfit ohntesh eocroyn struTchteere dqu.ri epdr elimitnota hryae c com plishmoeftn hte tsae sikstso s ayw hatth eoraireaens d t os tatthere e quirements fotre sttihnegm . I Studeonfti sn ternaptoiiltoicnsua slte h tee rm" theofryr"ee l,yo fttenoc ovearn y workt hadte parftrso mme rdee scripiotn andse ldmo tor efoenrl tyo w ortkh at meetpsh ilosophy-osft-asncdiaeTrnhdecas e.i mIsi ntetnodp ursuree qutirhea t definiotfit ohneks ey termst heoarynd lawb ec aerfulclhyo s.eWh nereast wo definiotfit ohneryso vief oarc ceptaan cisempl,e definiotfil oanwi sw iedly acceptLaedws. e stablrieslha tbieotnwse veanr iabvlaerisa,b lbeesig n concepts thactan taek diffevraelnute Isfa. ,t hebn, w herea satndfso orn eo rm ore idnepnednetv arisaa bnldbes atndsf otrh dee pendveanaritb lInef :o rm,t ihsits he sttaemeonfat l a.wI f rtehalieto bnet weeana n db i sin vriaant,th lea wi sa bso ltu.eI ft hree latiisho ing hclonys t,at nhtoungho itn viaanrtt,hl ea ww oulrdae d likteh: iI fsa , thenb w itphr boaibliyt.x . A lawis b asenodt s ipmylo na r ealtion thahtab se efno u,nb duotn o net hahtasb eenf ounredp etaedlRyepetiotnig ives . risteot heex pteactitohnai tfIf ina din thfeut rue,t hewni tshpec fiiedp roabbility Iw illo f ailnbsd.I nt hnea tusrcali enecveepsnr obabilicsotnitcaa s ilrtnao wnsg imputaotfin oencse tisy.I nt hseo cisacli esn tcose ayt hapetrs onso fs pecified incmoev otDee moctriwaci tahc ertparionbb ialiistt yo mea klaa w-lsitkaet e mentT.h ew ord limiplkiese lase seserns eo fn ecessiyt. St,it lhlset atement would nobte a ta lllie k laa wun lsset hree lahtaidos ono fteann ds ore liabylb eefonu nd 2 ChaptIe r int hpea stth atthe ex epctatofii othnso ldiinn gft uhrteeuw itcho mparparbolbe abiliithsiy g .h• Byo ndee fiiitnon,t heoarriceeo sl lecotrsi teoson fls wa sp ertaitnoaip nagr tciulbaerh avoirop rh enomne.nI ona ddittioio nnc o,mf eoerx amplaes,s o ciatmiaoynb see stablbiesthweevdeo ntr ese'd utcia,ot nheriegrli ioann,dt heir partesnp'o tliilcc aommit,mo ennt thoen eh an,da ndt hwea yt hevyo toen,t he othhearn .dI ft he apbriolbliaswttsih csue stablairsteha ekdte oneg thehgrih,e r corlraetnisao raec hiebvetewde evnot ercsh'aa rctetriisc(hste i ndepetnv daerni ablesan)d c hoiocfpe a rt(yt hdee pendveanrbtil aeT)h.e oraire,ets h e,mn oer compltehxal na wbsu,ot n lqyu atnittiavyse ol.B etweewns a lnadt heioenrso d if fereonfkc ien adp pe.a rs Thifsi rdsetfi itniooftn h eosruyp potrhtaess piraotfti ohosnme a nsyo cial sicentwihsotw so ul"db uitlhde"o bryyc olleccatriuenlfglv ye reidfi,itn ercon nectheydp tohe.sT ehse lfoowlisntgyo sruggetssh owm ospto tliicsacelin tists thionftk h eory: Homerd escrtihbweea sl olfTs r oaysb eiengigh fte etth i.Ic fkhi asc coiusn t truteh,em ni lllenatioeanr se houladb lbteeof intdh owsael blysc aredfiuggli .n g Thitsh oguhto ccurtroHe edi nrSicchhl ieamsaa b nony a,n da sa manp uhtteh e theotroey m pirtisectalK. a rDle ucthsu setsh set oarysa ne xamploefh own ew stytlhee ioearser t est(9e16d,6 p p.1 68-)6A.9 theoirybs onri nc onjeeca tnudir s viablteh ceio nftj uecriesc onfi.rmD eedutsrcehg atrhdesio eorsf t hsei mpilfe thesno rats" spetchieaol,r w"ih eiscmha y' 1aotneb re coemmeb eddienadg rand theo.ry"H et hegni voehtse erx mapleasn di nd oisnog sh"iffrtoasmy es-or-no questtioaoh now -mucqhu est.iW"oe sn houtlrydt of inoduh to wm ucohf a c on tribu"tdiiofnf erentm avkatero aig aibvlreeenuss l"(t 16 96,p p2.1 9-)2.1 Whati s'spiobsulsye fiunslu cahp aetrnto ft hinkainnwdgh ,ai tns o tE7v ery onek nowtsh aatc oeifcfioefnc to rariteolne,v eanh igohn ed,o enso t watr ran sayitnhgaa ct a usralelai toenx ti.ssS quianrtgh ceo efinfetihc,o wveert,e chnliyc al permituss staoty h awteh avea ccountfeoardc ertpaeirnc enotfta hgveea rian.c e Iitst hen teoba eslyi tehvaae t rceaauls caoln nechtaiso nbi edeetnni fainemdde a sur,et do tthihnatkth r ee tliaobnet weeann eipnedndaenndatd ependveanrit ablhea bse eens taebldai,ns dth of ortgt ehasto methhiabnseg e sna iodn ly about dotosna p ieocfpe a paenrd rtehger ieoslnsie dn rawtnrh ougthh e.mI s ctohre realtisopnui rouThsa7t suggtehsrietg sth q uestwiiotnh qouuitat sek gii ntC.o r- •onem usbte c arefulTh.e abovset atemiesln atw -loinkleiy fi tca nb ev erifiinve adr ious ways.C ounterfacctoudnailt iofnoser,x maplew,o ulhda vteo mbeet i nt hiwsa y:P ersobn isi nt he income coaflt eiegkloyRry e publics;ai nfb 'si ncome were rteoad cuecretda in levehle,w ouldp robabbleyc omae D emocrta.M orep recisetlhyel, a w-klesi ttaement establisthheesese xpectatiIofbn issa: n R witphr obabixl, aintdyi fa isa D witphr obabil ityy, t heinfb b ecomesa ,h et hereby beacD o wmietsph r obabiyl.i ty Lawsa nd[ heorieJs realtioanrnsee tihesrp urinoougrsen uintheey; amreer enluym bertsh aotne g ets by rpfeormisnigm pmlaete hmatiocpaealirt on.s cAorr elaiotn isn eitshpeurr ious nogre unin,b eutt hreea ltiotnh awte i nefrf roimmt a yb ee it.h uepSrposes ome one propaol uanwfd,ose r xa mpe,l byc aruelfleys tabltihsrehe ilnagbt eitownt> en thaem ouonftp usihm parttoae c da ratn d atmhoeu onfti tmso vemteT.nb -· .:a tioens tabliifcs ohnetddii,o anrske e pcto nstaanndmt e aseumrenitsc aretiusi . simpal fya cotfo bsveartiao lna,wt harte mains covnasl.tiT adhneet xlpy la natoifofne froetrdh arltea tiofop nu sahn dm ovemteh,no weevri,sr adicdailfly ferednetp endoinnw ghe therc ownes Aruilsttt looer G aliolreN oe wt.oT nhe uncriatciccteaapln ocfea n umbearsi ndicatthiaantc g o ncnteioobnat inisst he firdsatn gteogr u aradg asitnT.o d os oi sf aieralsy.Ty hen ext priosb leme omr improtaanntdh ardteosr o lve. Eveinwf e hasvaiets foiuerds elivnve asri ous twhaaayct so rrealtipooni nts toa connectthitar oenl ihaoblldyws es, it lhla vneo atc counftoterhd a cto nnec tioinnt hsee nosfhe a vienxgap ilnietdW. eh avaec cotuenfdo irt tihwnea y-and onliynt hwea y-thaArti stoteplhiyasanic ccso tuenfdo trh ree tliaobnew teen push maonvde nmetF.r oamp racatlsi tncadpotik,nn olwedogfet hhei ghc orrela tiobnet ween pumsohv eamnteid nv se ruys ue.lfT hadtec sriptkinvoelw edmgaey suggcelsutae bso utthp er incoifpm loetsi. oI tmn aya se asbielg yr osmsisllye ad inga,s i ndeiettd u rnoeudtt ob e.N umbesrm ayd escriwbhea gto eosn i nt he wolrdB.u nto m attheorws ecurweenl ayia d le srciptdioownnw itnhum besr,w e sthialvlne oetxp lnaeidw hat hwaevd ee scerd.iS bttaisdtoin cosst h ohwo wa ny thing owrof ristk toseg theSrtt.ai satriseci sm pdleysci rptnisio nn umriecalf orm. Thef ormi se cnoomicalb ecausstteait sidcessc ribae u nievres trhoughma nipu la tion ofsa mples drawn froim tS.t aitciarsse t usefbule cauosfet hvea rioeft y ingenoipoeutrsia otnhsac ta bne pe rofrm ed, somoefw hiccha bne u sedt oc heck ont hsei gcnanicefo ifo hter.Ts her esuhltow,e verre,m aiand ses criptoino fs ome parotft hweo rladn dn otan e xplanatoifio ntS .att isticalo peraticoannsn ot bridgteh gea pt halti ebse tweedne scriptainonde xplanatKiaornlD. e utsch advisuess" tfoo rmulatoerr ,eo frmulaatp er,o posiintt ieormnso fpr obabityl i andt os ahy owm ucohft hoeu tcomceo ulbde a ccotuned bfyoo nree lmeenatn d howm ucho ft hoe uctomceo ulbde a ccountefdo r fortoehmre lmeentosri s autonomoaunsdf re(e1"9 6p6.2 ,2 0If) .w ef lolotwh aadtv icwee, w ilble have lkieAri stotelain hpycsiitss. We wiltlr eaap t roblaestm oh ugh it wlieekrt eh oe ne oft ryintgo s atyo w hate xnttea c artm'osv emenrte sulftrso pm usahn ds loapned tow hate xteinttms o vemnetis i mpedebdyf rictioWnesw .i lclo ntintuote h inikn sequenatnidac lo rrelatteirmosn.aB ly d oingso ,re sutlthsaa rtpe r acticuaslelfyu l mayb ea chievaeldt,h ousgthu deonfti sn ternatipoonlailth iacevsd isappointingly litttols eh owf osru cehf foretvse,ni np racticatle rms.An d ifu sefiunflo rmation werune covered, them ored iffitcaulstok f fi guri ng outi ttsh eoretmiecaaln ing wouldr emain. 4 Chap1t er The" inducitlilvui,ss"ait sos nturctuarntalh ropolLeovgiit-asrSuts tse rmis t, its hbee ltiheaftt ru tihws o na nde xplanoanat cihietvherdo utghahec cumtuiloan ofm oraen dm ordea taan dt heex amitniaoonfm oera ndm oerc aseIsf. g waet her moraen dm ordea taan de stabmloiersa hn dm oraes saoitcoinhso,we vewre,w ill nofti lnlafyi ntdh awtek nwo somentgh.Wi e wsiilmlp elnydu ph avimnogr aen d more daantdla a rgseerto sfc orerltaio.nD satnae vesrp eafko rt hemse.l ves Observatainoden x periennecveel re addie rcttloykn owledogfec aus.e sAst he Americapnr agtmiasCt.S, .P eriec,o ncsea i"dd,i rect eixnspe eirticheeenrrct ea in nourn cretabiecna,ue is atf finromtishn -gitj uisstI. it n vvoelnso e rrorb,e cause itte fsitetiosn othibnugit t osw na ppreaancFeo.tr h sea mree asioatnf ,f onrod s certtayi("nq utoeidn N age1l9 5p6.,1 50.D) atasee,m infga catpsp,ea nrats so citaiontsh-earseen otc ertkanionw leodfgs eo mentghT.ih emya yb ep uzzles thacta on ned ayb ee xpla;it nhyee mdayb et ritvhiaat nebeed penlxnoaetid a t al.l Iwfe f olltohwie n dtuicvriousett, we can wdietpahil e cooefnps lr yo bmls.e Theb eltiheaftt hpe i ecceabsn e a ddeudp t,h atth ey bceta rne aatsie ndd ependent varbilaewsh osseum mede ffectasc ocwuinfltol ar c ertpaoirnt oifoa dn e pendent variasmb olveme'entr,et sso nn othimnoergt hafnat ih.W ed on oktn owwh atto addu pa,n dw ed on otk noww hetheard dtiioinst haep porprioapteer a.tT ihoen numbeorf p ieesct hamti gthb et aekna sp arotfsa p robliesim n fei,na nidts oi s thneu mbeorf w ayisn w hicthh peei cemsay b ec ombnie.dN eitohbesre trviaon allnyo re xpertiamleclnayno new orwki tahn i nfionfio tbyj eacntdcs o mibna tionIns t.h feo lloewxianmgp Rloes,As s hbyo ffearnas p cta utiAsotrno.p hysi cissetesk t oe xaplitnh bee havoifos rt ar clwuist2th0e 00,r0s m embe.rT she beginAnesrh,b y obs"ewrvieslsal,ys imptlhya htew anst tok noww hatt he cluswtieldrlo i,e .,.h ew anttsh ter acjotreioefst hceom poenn.tI sft hiksn owl edg,he owveerc,ou lbde g ivetnoh i,mi tw oultdae kt hfeo romfm anyvo luems filwlietdnh u meritcaablsl ,ae ndh ew oultdh ernae litshteah ed indo rtae llwya nt altlht a.T"h ep rolbemA,s hbcyo ncluidhseo sw, f tniodo uwth at rweea wlalyn t tok now wit"bheoiuontvg e rwhelmweidht u seldeestsa (i15l96"p, .1 13)T.h eo ld mott"okn,o wledfgoetr h sea koef k nolwedgiesan" appeag loinnep,e rahps becauosneec ank eebpu sayn da tt hsea mtei maev oitdhd ei fufliqtcu estoifo n knowledfgoewr h atB.ec aufsaecd tosn ostp eakt hfeomrs eblevceasua,ss es ocia tinosn evecro ntoaric no nlcusivseulgygtt e hseoiwrne xpltaoinnat,h qeu estion musbte f aceTdh.ei deoaf " knowlefodrg et shaeek o fkn oweldgel"o siests charm, and iintmdsee aeindn go,n ce roeniaezl etsh atth peo sbslioeb jeocft s knowleadrgieen n fiite. Today'sst udteson fp oilitcnse vretlheesdsi spal satyor ngc omimmtentto induiocntT.h eeyx aminnuem erocuasswe ist thh heo pteh acto nnecatnipodna st ternwsi lelm eragned t hatth ocsoen nteicoannsdp atternwsi lrler pesentt hfer e quetnly moenne"tdri aelyi tthaitso utt hee.rT"h eh opea pparernetslotynst he convictthiakotnn o wlebdeggneisw itche rteasia nntdti haitn ducctaiunon nc over the.mB utw ec ann evesra yw itahss urancet haat s taotfafe f aiirdnusc itvely arriavtce odr srpeontdoss o metohbjiec ntivgely r e.aWh latw et hionfk r aesa lity iss eialtnfe alborteac onecptiocnon structaenddr ecnosutcrttehdr outghhae g e.s Reaityl emergferso m soeeulcrt iaonndo rganizoafmt aiterioanls t haatr aev ail ablieni fniient uqantiyt.H owc awne d eciwhdiecm ha triealtsose lecatn dho wt o arrantghee mN7o i ndutcievp rocecdaunar nes rwt ehqeu setiofnot,rh vee ry probliesm f tiog ouurtte h ceri tebriyaw hicihn ducctaiunos nel flupyro cede . Thosweh ob eli,eo dvdely,t haknto wledgbee giwnihstc retianttiheison fk theoriesa se difoicftes r u,tw hhicthh ewyo uldb uiilndd ueclt.yiT vhedye fine theoarshi yeposth estehsa atr ceo nfirmaenddc onnec.Bt ueetdm priiclak nowl edgiesa lwapyrsol ebmaticExperieonfcteme inls eaudssA. s H einriHcehrz pt ut . it",t hwahti cihsd erivde froemx periecnacnae g abienan nulldeb ye xpenrciee" (8194p,.3 57.) otNihngi sev ebro tehm piril cnaada bsolutealp yro potsriiuoten, estabeldbi ysI hmmauneKlan ta ndn ow wideyla cecptaetdle a stb yn atusrcaile n tiss.Ant d sinecmep riicakln owlgeei dspot enitalliynn fieiti ne xnttew,i thout somgeui dnacew ec aknn ow neitwhhearit n fmoartitoogn at henroh ro wt op uitt togetshote hrai tbt e comcoemsp rehsielbneI.fw ec oudliedrct lyap perhend the worltdh aittn ertesus sw,e w oulhadv neo n eefdo trh eoryWec annotO.n eca n . reliabyl fihnidws a ya mongi fnintie temriaalson yl witthh geu diacneof t heory defiinnte hdsee cosnedn .s e Ratrh tehabne ing cmoelrlee cotfli oanwsts h,oeri esa re statemenst that explaint he(mc .Nf age1l96 1p,p 8.0 -18;I sa1a9k6 p9p,1. 3 8-)3T.9h eoireasr e qualtaitively diffefrreonmt .lL aawwsisd eny tiinafviratno rp robalbea ssoica tionTsh.e orsiheosww h yt hoassesc oitaioonbst a.Ei ancdhes cripteit vermi na laiwsd iretceitdtlo yo bservatoirlo anbaloo ryra rtpocedure,sa ndl awaser e stba lishoendl iyf t hepya sosbs eravtionalo re xeprmientalt es.tI sna ddiiotn to decsrivpett eirmst,h eioercso tnaitnh eorentoiotcni.asT lh eorcinaenso btec on structde throuhg induocnat lionfeo,tr h eeotcrianlo tnisco anon lyb ei nven,t ed nodti scovAreirsettdo.ld eea lwti trhe amloi tont,h aits wtihtretha isoo fe fftoor t movemnett haaetrm attsoe frc ommoenx pecrei.Ge anlitloeook sbtoelapdws a y frotmh reae lw ordl ino rdteore xpilnia. tAri stotle belietvheaodbt je cts are naturaatrl eltsy n da theaftf iosrr etq uitrome odv et he;mG alilaesos umtehdta botrhe satnd u nifocrimr cmuloatria ornne a utraaln dth aatno bjercmeta inisn eitohfet rh ecsoedn iotniisn t haeb seoncfoe ut sifdoeer scN.ew tocno nceoivfae d unfiorrme tcilimnoetoanirT het heyoh re edvidst eoe xlpiani ti ntdruocesdu ch . theoircenatolt iaospn os itn-maissnst,ta anneaoccues lateirofno,ra cndea ,b solute spaacnet di mneo,n oefw hiccha n obbes erovree xdpr eiemnatllyd etenrmei.dA t eacsht efpr,o Arims otlte through tGoaN lewitloento,h t eh eorectiocnacle pts becabmoel d-etrhaitsf ,ut rherre movferdoo mu sre nesxep erei.e nc A tehoretniotcialom na yb ea c onctes,pu chf oarsco era, na smsuptisounc,h ast haes sutmipotnh amtas sc onctertnaeasta p onit.A theoreitcnaolt idoonen so t expalino rp rdiecta nyth.Wi en kngow,a nsdo d iNde wtont,h amta sdso enso t
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