The Zapatista Social Netwar in Mexico

179 Pages·7.839 MB·English

by  Ronfeldt D., Aroquilla J., Fuller G.E., Fuller M.

The research described in this report was sponsored by the United
States Army under Contract No. DASW01-96-C-0004.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
The Zapatista "social netwar" in Mexico / David Ronfeldt ...
[etal.].
p. cm.
"Prepared for the U.S. Army by RAND's Arroyo Center."
"MR-994-A."
Includes bibliographical references (p. - ).
ISBN 0-8330-2656-9
1. Chiapas (Mexico)—History—Peasant Uprising, 1994—
Propaganda. 2. Ejercito Zapatista de Liberacion Nacional
(Mexico)—Public opinion. 3. Mexico—Military policy.
4. National security—Mexico. 5. Internet (Computer net-
work)—Social aspects—Mexico. 6. Information networks—
Social aspects—Mexico. 7. Public opinion—Mexico.
I. Ronfeldt, David F. II. Arroyo Center.
F1256.Z28 1998
972 ' .750836—dc21 98-30809
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The
Zapatista
Social Netwar
in
Mexico
DAVID RONFELDT • JOHN ARQUILLA • GRAHAM E. FULLER • MELISSA FULLER
MR- Irf-A
Prepared for the United States Army
ArroyoCenter
RAND
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
DTIG QT7AUZY OKSPECSED 1
For more information on the RAND Arroyo Center,
contact the Director of Operations, [phone],
extension 6500, or visit the Arroyo Center's Web site at
http://www.rand.org/organization/ard/
PREFACE
This study was prepared for a research project on "Stability and the
Military in Mexico." The research was sponsored by Deputy Chief of
Staff for Intelligence and was conducted in RAND Arroyo Center's
Strategy and Doctrine Program. The Arroyo Center is a federally
funded research and development center sponsored by the United
States Army.
The study reports on a case of "netwar," a concept that we have been
developing for the purpose of understanding the nature of conflict in
the information age (Arquilla and Ronfeldt, 1996b). Although the
focus is on the Zapatista movement in Mexico, and on the responses
thereto of the Mexican government and army, the study also identi-
fies some implications for possible future netwars elsewhere around
the world.
This study focuses mainly on the 1994-1996 period, in part because
that was the heyday of this social netwar, but also because the
study's preliminary findings were initially briefed to the sponsor in
June 1996, and the first draft appeared in December 1996. This final
publication is much revised and updated from the draft.
Please direct comments to:
David Ronfeldt John Arquilla
International Studies Group Interdisciplinary Academic Center
RAND U.S. Naval Postgraduate School
Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 Monterey, CA 93943
[phone], extension 7717 [phone]
[email protected] [email protected]
CONTENTS
Preface iii
Figures vii
Tables ix
Summary xi
Acknowledgments xiii
Chapter One
AN INSURGENCY BECOMES A SOCIAL NETWAR 1
Chapter Two
THE ADVENT OF NETWAR: ANALYTIC BACKGROUND . 7
Definition of Netwar 9
Networks vs. Hierarchies: Challenges for Counternetwar . 17
Varieties of Netwar 18
Mexico—Scene of Multiple Netwars 22
Chapter Three
EMERGENCE OF THE ZAPATISTA NETWAR 23
Three Layers to the Zapatista Movement 24
The Indigenas: Growing Desperation and Politicization . . 26
The EZLN: Mixture of Vertical and Horizontal Designs ... 31
Activist NGOs: Global, Regional, and Local Networks .... 35
On the Eve of War 43
Chapter Four
MOBILIZATION FOR CONFLICT 45
The EZLN in Combat—A "War of the Flea" 45
Transnational NGO Mobilization—A "War of the Swarm" . 50
vi The Zapatista "Social Netwar" in Mexico
Chapter Five
TRANSFORMATION OF THE CONFLICT 61
Zapatista Emphasis on "Information Operations" 62
Attenuation and Restructuring of Combat Operations ... 74
Government Efforts at Counternetwar 79
Chapter Six
THE NETWAR SIMMERS—AND DIFFUSES 85
Situational Standoff 85
From the EZLN to the EPR—Diffusion In Mexico 88
The Zapatista Netwar Goes Global 95
Assessments of the EZLN/Zapatista Movement 98
Actors to Watch: The Military and the NGOs 107
Basic Implication for U.S. Military Policy: "Guarded
Openness" HI
Chapter Seven
BEYOND MEXICO 113
Toward a Demography of Social Netwar 116
Evolution of Organization, Doctrine, and Strategy 118
Favorable Conditions for Social Netwar 120
Challenges to Authoritarian Systems 124
Implications for the U.S. Army and Military Strategy 128
Concluding Comment 130
Appendix
A. CHRONOLOGY OF THE ZAPATISTA SOCIAL NETWAR
(1994-1996) 133
B. RETHINKING MEXICO'S STABILITY AND
TRANSFORMABILITY 141
Bibliography 155
FIGURES
1. Types of Networks 12
2. EZLN Organization 35
TABLES
1. Human-Rights NGOs 58
2. Ecumenical NGOs 59
3. Indigenous-Rights NGOs 59
4. Trade and Development NGOs 59
5. Infrastructure-Building and Network-Facilitating
NGOs 60
6. Timeline Highlights, 1994-1998 90
SUMMARY
The information revolution is leading to the rise of network forms of
organization, whereby small, previously isolated groups can com-
municate, link up, and conduct coordinated joint actions as never
before. This, in turn, is leading to a new mode of conflict—
"netwar"—in which the protagonists depend on using network forms
of organization, doctrine, strategy, and technology. Many actors
across the spectrum of conflict—from terrorists, guerrillas, and crim-
inals who pose security threats to social activists who do not—are
developing netwar designs and capabilities.
The Zapatista movement in Mexico provides a seminal case of
"social netwar." In January 1994, a guerrilla-like insurgency begun in
Chiapas by the Zapatista National Liberation Army (EZLN), and the
Mexican government's response to it, aroused a multitude of civil-
society activists associated with a variety of nongovernmental orga-
nizations (NGOs) to "swarm"—electronically as well as physically—
from the United States, Canada, and elsewhere into Mexico City and
Chiapas. There, they linked up with Mexican NGOs to voice solidar-
ity with the EZLN's demands and to press for nonviolent change.
Thus, what began as a violent insurgency in an isolated region mu-
tated into a nonviolent though no less disruptive "social netwar" that
engaged activists from far and wide and had both national and for-
eign repercussions for Mexico.
This study examines the rise of this netwar, the information-age be-
haviors that characterize it (e.g., use of the Internet), its effects on the
Mexican military, its implications for Mexico's stability, and its im-