The World's Religions in Figures: An Introduction to International Religious Demography PDF
Preview The World's Religions in Figures: An Introduction to International Religious Demography
The World’s Religions in Figures The World’s Religions in Figures An Introduction to International Religious Demography Todd M. Johnson and Brian J. Grim With Gina A. Bellofatto Foreword by Peter L. Berger A John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Publication This edition first published 2013 © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd Wiley-Blackwell is an imprint of John Wiley & Sons, formed by the merger of Wiley’s global Scientific, Technical and Medical business with Blackwell Publishing. Registered Office John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, UK Editorial Offices 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148-5020, USA 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford, OX4 2DQ, UK The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, UK For details of our global editorial offices, for customer services, and for information about how to apply for permission to reuse the copyright material in this book please see our website at www.wiley.com/wiley-blackwell. The right of Todd M. Johnson and Brian J. Grim to be identified as the authors of this work has been asserted in accordance with the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, except as permitted by the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, without the prior permission of the publisher. Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books. Designations used by companies to distinguish their products are often claimed as trademarks. All brand names and product names used in this book are trade names, service marks, trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners. The publisher is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book. This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold on the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services. If professional advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Johnson, Todd M. (Todd Michael), 1958– The world’s religions in figures: an introduction to international religious demography/ Todd M. Johnson, Brian J. Grim; editorial associate, Gina A. Bellofatto. pages cm Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-470-67454-3 (cloth) 1. Religions–Statistics. I. Bellofatto, Gina A. II. Title. BL80.3.J65 2013 200.2′1–dc23 2012047272 A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Cover image: Top: Praying with rosary beads © spxChrome. Detail from people praying on a sajadah © Eray Haciosmanoglu. Priest in robe blessing wine for Communion © kokophoto. Bottom: Sadhu Indian holyman sitting in the temple © Bartosz Hadyniak. Three Hasidic Jews © Keith Reicher. Detail of bust of Buddha © Navin Khianey. Cover design by www.simonlevyassociates.co.uk Set in 10/12.5pt Galliard by SPi Publisher Services, Pondicherry, India 1 2013 Brief Contents List of Figures xiii List of Tables xiv Foreword xix Acknowledgments xxiv Introduction 1 Part I Overview 7 1 Global Religious Populations, 1910–2010 9 2 Regional Religious Populations, 1910–2010 81 3 Religious Diversity 93 4 Projecting Religious Populations, 2010–50 111 Part II Data and Methods 133 5 Defining Religion and Religious Identity 135 6 Religious Demography as an Emerging Discipline 143 7 Major Sources and Collections of Data 163 8 Analyzing Data on Religion 190 9 Dynamics of Change in Religious Populations 205 Part III Case Studies 227 10 Estimating Changes in the Global Muslim Population 229 11 Factors Driving Change in the Global Muslim Population 258 12 Estimating China’s Religious Populations 286 vi Brief Contents 13 Assessing Religious Populations in the Sudans 313 14 Migration and Religious Diasporas 321 Conclusion 333 Appendix: World Religions by Country 337 Glossary 346 Index 360 Contents List of Figures xiii List of Tables xiv Foreword xix Acknowledgments xxiv Introduction 1 Part I Overview 7 1 Global Religious Populations, 1910–2010 9 Religiously Affiliated and Unaffiliated 11 Christians 12 Muslims 16 Hindus 23 Agnostics 26 Chinese Folk-Religionists 30 Buddhists 31 Ethnoreligionists 38 Atheists 41 New Religionists 41 Sikhs 47 Jews 50 Spiritists 53 Daoists 56 Baha’is 59 Confucianists 62 Jains 65 Shintoists 68 Zoroastrians 71 Notes 74 References 78 viii Contents 2 Regional Religious Populations, 1910–2010 81 Africa 81 Asia 83 Europe 83 Latin America 86 Northern America 86 Oceania 90 Notes 90 References 91 3 Religious Diversity 93 Diversity versus Pluralism 93 Changes in Religious Diversity from 1910 to 2010 94 Method 1: Religious Diversity Index (RDI) 94 Method 2: Religious Diversity by Number of Religions 95 Method 3: Religious Diversity by Size of Population 98 Measuring the impact of size on diversity 99 Threshold question 1: What size populations are needed for the majority to experience religious diversity? 99 Hypothetical example 100 Illustrative real examples 100 Threshold question 2: To determine what population thresholds are reasonable, how much size bias is tolerable? 101 Religious Diversity in the United States 103 Globalization 104 Conclusion 105 Notes 105 References 109 4 Projecting Religious Populations, 2010–50 111 Methodology 114 Findings for the Larger World Religions 115 Christians 115 Muslims 117 Hindus 121 Buddhists 122 Agnostics/atheists 122 Research on the Future of Religion 124 Notes 129 References 130 Part II Data and Methods 133 5 Defining Religion and Religious Identity 135 How Many Religions, and What Religions, Are World Religions? 137 Defining world religions 137 Defining new religions 137 Defining folk religion 138 Doubly affiliated religionists 138 Contents ix Defining not “Religion” but “a Religion” 139 Notes 140 References 141 6 Religious Demography as an Emerging Discipline 143 Demography as a Growing Field of Study 143 Changes in methodology 144 Challenges, strengths, and weaknesses 145 Religious Demography 146 Popular writing on the future of religion 146 Positive developments in religious demography 147 Scholarly reflections on religious data 148 International coverage in religious demography 149 Innumeracy and religious demography 150 Religious Demography and Other Disciplines 151 Demography as a Disconnected Field of Study 151 Religious Demography Is Also Disconnected 152 Religious Demography and International Relations 153 Notes 155 References 159 7 Major Sources and Collections of Data 163 Censuses in Which a Religion Question Is Asked 164 Limitations of census religion questions 165 Censuses in Which an Ethnicity or Language Question Is Asked 168 Limitations of census ethnicity and language questions 169 Surveys and Polls 169 Limitations of surveys and polls 170 Scholarly Monographs 171 Limitations of scholarly monographs 171 Religion Statistics in Yearbooks and Handbooks 171 Limitations of yearbooks and handbooks 173 Governmental Statistical Reports 173 Limitations of governmental statistical reports 174 Questionnaires and Reports from Collaborators 175 Limitations of questionnaires and reports from collaborators 176 Field Surveys and Interviews 176 Limitations of field surveys and interviews 176 Correspondence with National Informants 176 Limitations of correspondence with national informants 177 Unpublished Documentation (or Published Items with Limited Distribution) 177 Limitations of unpublished documentation 177 Encyclopedias, Dictionaries, and Directories of Religions 177 Limitations of encyclopedias, dictionaries, and directories 178 Print and Web-Based Contemporary Descriptions of Religions 178 Limitations of print and web-based contemporary descriptions 178 Dissertations and Theses on Religion 178 Limitations of dissertations and theses 179 Physical and Electronic Collections of Data 179 x Contents Notes 179 References 185 8 Analyzing Data on Religion 190 International Religious Demography Data Quality Index 190 Census data 194 Demographic and health surveys 195 Other survey sources 196 World Religion Database (WRD) 198 Examples of other WRD sources 199 Reconciling Discrepancies Between Data 200 Notes 201 References 203 9 Dynamics of Change in Religious Populations 205 Births 206 Deaths 209 Births Minus Deaths/Total Fertility Rate 209 Converts To 210 Converts From 212 Converts To Minus Converts From 213 Immigrants 213 Emigrants 217 Immigrants Minus Emigrants 218 Notes 219 References 223 Part III Case Studies 227 10 Estimating Changes in the Global Muslim Population 229 Data 231 Baseline Muslim populations 231 Fertility 231 Age and sex structure 232 Life expectancy at birth 232 Migration: Important primarily in Europe and North America 232 Projection Assumptions 233 Fertility assumptions 233 Mortality assumptions 234 Migration assumptions 234 The Projected Global Muslim Population Scenarios 235 Definition of Muslims 237 Differences between this study and the Pew Forum’s 2009 report 237 Historical data 238 Discussion of Sources 239 United Nations and other international research agencies 239 Censuses 239 Contents xi Demographic surveys 239 General population surveys 240 World Religion Database 240 A Note on Country and Territory Designation 240 Overview of the Findings 241 Growing, but at a Slower Rate 243 Muslim-Majority Countries 246 Sunni and Shi’a Muslims 250 Other Key Findings of the Study 252 Worldwide 252 Asia–Pacific 252 Middle East–North Africa 252 Sub-Saharan Africa 253 Europe 253 The Americas 254 Notes 255 References 256 11 Factors Driving Change in the Global Muslim Population 258 Main Factors Driving Population Growth 258 Fertility 258 Life expectancy at birth 261 Migration 266 Age structure 269 Related Factors 274 Education 275 Economic well-being 275 Conversion 277 Notes 282 References 285 12 Estimating China’s Religious Populations 286 Overview 286 Reported Religious Affiliation in China According to Surveys 287 Toward a More Comprehensive Count of Religion 289 Chinese Folk- or Traditional Religion 290 Buddhism and Taoism 292 Christianity 292 Background on the Chinese context 295 Chinese government estimates 296 Membership-based estimates 298 Independent survey estimates 299 Islam 300 Atheism 301 A Comprehensive Estimate of Religious Affiliation in China 302 Government Officials Interested in Hearing about Religion 303 Notes 304 References 310
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