The Weekly Standard, Volume 1, Number 18, January 22, 1996

36 Pages·0.89 MB·English

by  The Weekly Standard

Iss. 19/Jan. 22 Cover 7/23/02 3:17 PM Page 1
JANUARY 22, 1996 $2.95
TTRRIICCKKYY
HHIILLLLAARRYY
Byron York
The Truth Behind Travelgate
Tod Lindberg
Whitewater Goes North
Carl M. Cannon
A White House in Extremis
Intellectuals and Politics
David Brooks
Lessons of the Budget Showdown
Fred Barnes • The Editors
Iss. 19/Jan. 22 TOC 7/23/02 3:18 PM Page 1
VOLUME 1, NUMBER 18 • JANUARY 22, 1996
2 Scrapbook 12 Buchanan’s unlikely fans
How Pat became a media darling—really.BYMATTHEWREES
4 Casual
Neomi Rao finds, in India, an orderly mayhem. 14 Runaround Suharto
6 Correspondence Indonesia today and tomorrow. BYJOSHUAMURAVCHIK
16 abortion and cancer
9 EDITORIAL
Conservatism After the Budget Battle The recognition of a worrying link. BYJUDITHE. KOEHLER
10 Advantage: Bill Clinton 40 Parody
The president maneuvers with craft. BYFREDBARNES Who Is Socks? (II)
18 the hidden tale of travelgate
Why a humble White House office was so important to the powerful. BYBYRONYORK
21 Whitewater in Washington
The scandal is no longer an Arkansas affair. It has hit D.C., big-time. BYTODLINDBERG
25 as the white House spins
At 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., the damage controllers are in overdrive. BYCARLM. CANNON
28 Culture equals politics
Green eyeshades should come second when so much more is at stake. BYDAVIDBROOKS
Cover illustration
by Michael Ramirez
movies 32 Disney’s desecrations Classics are debased. Uncle Walt, where are you? BYMICHAELGILTZ
Books 34 story of their lives Elizabeth Fox-Genovese against the feminists. BYCLAUDIAWINKLER
36 roll over, rushdie A new book smashes all records in anti-Islamic heresy. BYDANIELPIPES
38 Godless in America Again: Just how naked is the public square to be? BYJEREMYRABKIN
William Kristol,Editor and Publisher Fred Barnes, Executive Editor John Podhoretz, Deputy Editor
David Tell, Opinion Editor David Brooks, Andrew Ferguson, Senior Editors Richard Starr, Claudia Winkler, Managing Editors
Christopher Caldwell, Senior Writer Scott M. Morris, Jay Nordlinger, Associate Editors
Tucker Carlson, Matt Labash, Matthew Rees, Staff Writers
Kent Bain, Art Director Henry Nolan, Design Consultant Daniel McKivergan, Research Director Neomi Rao, Reporter
David Frum, Robert Kagan, Charles Krauthammer, Tod Lindberg, P. J. O’Rourke, Contributing Editors
James L. Pitts, Deputy Publisher Jennifer L. Komosa, Business Manager Francine M. McMahon, Advertising Director
James D. McVey, Advertising Consultant Dianne H. Snively, Subscription Director Kathleen Connolly, Polly Coreth, Doris Ridley, Executive Assistants
Josephine DeLorenzo, Catherine Edwards, Rebecca Gustafson, Alison Maresco, Staff Assistants Juleanna Glover, Publicity
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Iss. 19/Jan. 22 scrap 7/23/02 3:18 PM Page 2
W K T C W ’ S
HAT THE EMP AX OMMISSION ON T AY
The final report of the Kemp that it’s foolhardy to put forward a Deductibility of payroll taxes is
commission—the tax reform program ripe for attack before the urged as an additional sweetener for
panel appointed by Newt intellectual groundwork has been working people. And the document
Gingrich and Bob Dole—was sup- laid for the general public. Dole, urges a legislative guarantee long
posed to be unveiled in Washington who’ll have to defend the commis- sought by conservative tax protest-
last week with all three big shots pre- sion’s report on the hustings, was ers: “These changes, once in place,
sent. But snow stranded Jack Kemp more adamant on the matter than should be sealed with a guarantee of
on the ski slopes of Vail, and so the Gingrich. long-term stability requiring a
event was held up, maybe until this The result? A supply-side docu- supermajority vote of the U.S. Con-
week. So what’s the commission ment that names no specific rates gress to raise the tax rate.”
going to say? anywhere but insists that the gov- Kemp’s introduction to the report
It’s what it won’t say that’s more ernment should “tax income once at is called “Setting the Eagle Free,”
interesting. Kemp wanted to name a a single low rate, with a generous and he uses it as an opportunity to
specific flat-tax rate that would be a exemption.” This exemption would make a wildly heterodox claim about
starting point for future discussions take the form of a floor below which the size and strength of the Ameri-
and could be thought of as “the no taxes would be paid. That would can economy: “An economic growth
Kemp plan.” Dole and Gingrich ensure the tax system would still be rate of 2.5 percent is unacceptable to
wanted to avoid specifics, with both progressive; nobody poor would pay the American people.” Take that,
explicitly following the principle at the same rate as, say, Steve Forbes. Alan Greenspan.
SCHOOL CHOICE IS BACK!
parents wished to have their child switch schools and
With the overwhelming defeat of California’s ambi- remain in the public education system. Parents who
tious school-voucher initiative in November 1993, wished to transfer their children to private nonsectarian
it became clear that progress toward school choice would or religious schools would be eligible for as much as
have to occur incrementally. Middle-class parents who $4,500 for each pupil.
had scraped and saved to move to neighborhoods with Now we can look forward to the imaginative argu-
good public schools were unwilling to throw everything ments of the education establishment defending the
up for grabs with some sort of across-the-board choice proposition that parents shouldn’t be helped to liberate
program. But the case for choice for parents whose kids their kids from schools that are manifestly failing—just
are in miserable public schools has always been a winner, because it might inconvenience those whose incompe-
and Governors Thompson of Wisconsin and Voinovich of tence and cynicism have made these reforms necessary.
Ohio were able to move ahead with targeted choice pro-
grams for low-income students in Milwaukee and
Cleveland. (Both are, needless to say, under legal attack
from the teachers’ unions and the ACLU.) STOP ME BEFORE I DO SOMETHING
Now California governor Pete Wilson has joined the GOOD
parade. In his annual State of the State speech last week,
he proposed a school-voucher program that would pay During the balanced-budget stalemate, Newt Gingrich
tuition in public, private, and religious schools for pupils and Bob Dole have often wistfully said they just wish
currently enrolled in the state’s worst performing schools. they could get Bill Clinton alone for a few hours because
Wilson argued that “no child should be trapped in these they were sure they could wrap up the whole business
failing schools because their parents can’t afford an alter- among themselves. The White House doesn’t want to let
native.” that happen, perhaps because chief of staff Leon Panetta
Wilson’s plan would make students eligible if they and others think Gingrich and Dole are onto something.
attend schools that score in the bottom 5 percent of pub- Case in point: Dole and Gingrich arranged for a meeting
lic schools on national standardized tests. State aid would last November about Medicaid between Clinton and three
simply be transferred from one public school to another if governors—Republicans Engler of Michigan and Leavitt
2/ THEWEEKLYSTANDARD JANUARY22, 1996
Iss. 19/Jan. 22 scrap 7/23/02 3:18 PM Page 3
Scrapppbook
agrees with the OMB over the BLS estimate
of CPI and GDP, then we’ll be forced to pass a
TA after the reconciliation bill affecting FY
’96 by UC.” CBO=Congressional Budget
Office. OMB=Office of Management and
Budget. BLS=Bureau of Labor Statistics.
TA=targeted appropriation. UC=unanimous
consent. This is the way Bob Dole talks when
he tries to describe what’s going on with the
budget. He should stop. Now.
THE READING LIST
Ah, Petruschka, this week the Reading List
goes for a dance in the snow. (Remember:
Every Reading List now contains a deliberate
error in search of correction by an alert read-
er.) Herewith, some works featuring les neiges
d’antan:
Call of the Wild, by Jack London. Now
mostly forgotten, London was the most pop-
ular American writer in the first two decades
of the 20th century. Call of the Wild, written
from the perspective of an Alaskan sled dog
named Rover,is his best novel.
Ethan Frome, by Edith Wharton. This is
Wharton’s tenderest and most hauntingly
gloomy book—set, for once, not in the fash-
ionable drawing rooms of New York and the
Continent but in the snows of western Mass-
of Utah and Colorado Democrat Roy Romer. During the achusetts.
meeting, Clinton surprised and delighted the three men One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich, by Alexander
by offering to let them work out a transfer of Medicaid to Solzhenitsyn. His first, shortest, and possibly greatest
the states that he can sign. The so-called “block-granting” piece of writing, the unforgettable portrait of a “good day”
of Medicaid is one of the centerpieces of the Republican in the Gulag—below zero temperatures, harsh treatment,
budget plan. The next day, Panetta called Romer and told but a little more bread and soup than usual and some
his fellow Democrat, whoa there: The president didn’t pleasant conversation.
mean what he said. And so an opportunity for meaningful
entitlement reform was lost.
NOTICE
BOB DOLE, TAKE NOTE THE WEEKLY STANDARD is looking for an assistant art
director, and since we don’t have a classified section, we
An unlikely ally for those who worry that Washington thought we would mention it here. The job requires pro-
policy wonks make it impossible for ordinary people ficiency with Macintosh computers, the ability to use a
to understand politics: John Kasich, the chairman of scanner, and familiarity with the design programs
Wonk Central—i.e., the House budget committee. Kasich QuarkXPress, Photoshop, and Freehand. The pay is
fears that the argot he calls “Washington-ese” turns modest, but you do get to spend quality time with a happy
important political battles into an incomprehensible band of right-wing maniacs. Please do not call about the
swamp. He has even come up with what he considers the job; rather, send a résumé and samples of your work to:
ultimate Washington-ese sentence: “When the CBO dis- Art Director, THEWEEKLYSTANDARD, 1150 17th St., NW,
JANUARY22, 1996 THEWEEKLYSTANDARD/ 3
Iss. 19/Jan. 22 casual 7/23/02 3:17 PM Page 1
Casual those wishing to pass should just
“horn.”
One frequently needs to slow
down to pass bullock carts, camel
India by Car and Taxi
carts, and farmers pushing carts.
The lush country alongside us is a
riot of wheat, corn, castor, sunflow-
In Bombay, the most cosmopoli- the back of my taxis, I spend hours ers, and tobacco. We stop at what
tan of Indian cities, one rarely staring at shiny billboards advertis- my aunt and uncle assure us is a
even sees the road. The streets ing cellular phones, fax machines, respectable snack bar and eat hot
are covered by a thick carpet of JP Morgan, and of course movies, fried bujyas. Amazingly, no one falls
taxis, trucks, and people—and ranging from James Bond’s Golden- sick.
bereft of lanes or signals. Traffic is a Eyeto something called Lady Termi- After several hours, we reach
free-for-all resulting in what my nator(“She mates and then she ter- Dohad. In this small place, I am
teenage brother calls NDEs (for minates”). Only 10 years ago, the unquestionably a foreigner, and
“near death experiences”), what only show on television was I Love people stare at me intently, despite
with cars and trucks continually Lucy. Now Indians are treated to the fact that I am dressed in Indian
swerving around people, beggars, Baywatch, Beverly Hills 90210, and attire identical to my cousins’. A
and animals. Libertarians ought to The Bold and the Beautiful, not to wedding party of about 30 men
pay the city a visit, because one day mention CNN, BBC, MTV, and dancing to the bride’s house inter-
there is sure to give any anarchist a ESPN. In the past, bashful media rupts their song and begins impro-
healthy appreciation for the rule of heroines only kissed behind bush- vising a new one, which translates
law, especially when it comes to es. Now they are all Madonna pro- to “Pale, pale face, with dark, dark
traffic signals. totypes, baring their midriffs in glasses.” Only in Dohad would I be
Traveling from my grandmoth- dance videos reminiscent of called a “paleface.”
er’s apartment in northern Bombay Michael Jackson’s “Beat It.” My mother takes me around St.
to the city’s southern tip takes over From Bombay we travel to Baro- Stephen’s school, where she learned
an hour, although the distance is da, a city of about 3 million (and from Catholic priests in a class-
less than 10 miles. The average citi- considered small!) in the prosper- room of thatched mud walls (they
zen navigates the traffic by bus, but ous state of Gujarat. My mother’s now have several very respectable
since I was forbidden by my Indi- family has lived in Baroda for sev- concrete structures). We also visit
an-born mother to ride the buses eral hundred years. On my cousin’s Maya Talkies, the movie theater
(she feared pickpockets, pinchers, Honda Kinetic (a two-wheeler), I owned by my family—a scene right
and kidnappers), I became very pass prominent buildings erected out of Cinema Paradiso. Could the
familiar with taxis and their dri- by my ancestors and the crocodile residents of Dohad imagine the
vers. pond where my parents went dur- world my mother has emigrated
Each cab starts with the same ing their courtship to hold hands to—specifically, the Detroit suburb
base, a squat yellow and black Fiat away from inquisitive neighbors. of Bloomfield Hills? Only from a
comfortable for four, but often used My aunt, an accountant with a movie. But then, Dohad is itself
as transportation for eight or nine. degree from the London School of unimaginable to most Americans,
Lap space, seat space, it’s all the Economics, takes to the roads with accustomed as we are to cleanliness
same. Each taxi celebrates the dri- a real sporting spirit. In Baroda one and order, supermarkets and strip
ver’s religious or cultural passions. has to avoid not only the trucks, malls.
One driver had a small plastic mod- taxis, and crowds, but also three- My road trips allowed me to see
el of a temple attached to the dash- wheel rickshaws carrying 12 chil- as never before the confusion of
board and surrounded by red and dren, families on scooters, cows, India, but also the warmth, com-
green blinking lights. Another had oxen, and sheep. munity, and hospitality that our
zebra-print velour upholstery in We decide to take a road trip to more individualistic culture lacks.
the entire car, ceiling included. the town of Dohad, where my After a few days in the smaller
Many have the names of film mother spent her first nine years. cities, one gets accustomed to the
heroes, movies, or gods painted on And so I have my first experience mayhem, and perhaps even begins
the back window. of Indian highways and their large, to believe, as a friend’s grandmoth-
Driving through Bombay with hulking cargo trucks—trucks with er said, that “in Bombay, we have
words like “Love Goddess” scream- the words “Please, Horn, OK” excellent traffic control.”
NNeeoommii RRaaoo
ing out in fluorescent orange from painted on the back to indicate that
4/ THEWEEKLYSTANDARD JANUARY22, 1996
Iss. 19/Jan. 22 letters 7/23/02 3:18 PM Page 2
GGEENN XXEERRSS,, FFRREEEE AANNDD PPRROO--LLIIFFEE NNOOTT AABBAANNDDOONNEEDD MMAARRTTHHAA SSTTEEWWAARRTT,, GGRRIINNCCHH
RR
EESSPPOONNSSIIBBLLEE
Ibelieve Phyllis Schlafly’s response to Christopher Caldwell misses the
Noemie Emery (“Abortion and the nail and hits his thumb when he
Iam a bit taken aback by Andrew Pey- Republican Party: Three Responses,” says, “What really bothers Stewart’s
ton Thomas’s comments on libertari- Jan. 1/Jan. 8) seriously mischaracter- detractors is that she cares about the
anism in “Dear Generation X: A Letter ized Emery’s position and offered a home” (“In Praise of Martha Stewart,”
to My Cohort” (Jan. 1/Jan. 8). Perhaps weak defense of the pro-life move- Jan. 1/Jan. 8).
unknowingly, Thomas echoes the ment’s traditional legal approach. The American home lost its soul
know-nothing left on conservatism. Emery’s strategy is not a call for the when women turned their backs on
Doesn’t that ilk routinely argue that Republican party to “abandon the fight family and hearth in the 1970s to pur-
conservative thought is no more than a to make abortion illegal,” as Schlafly sue some ethereal sense of greater per-
rationalization for class interest? I contends. True, her moral approach sonal worth and stature. Now the art of
think this sort of reductionism of liber- would postpone a direct attack on the homemaking is lost to fast food, imper-
tarianism is no more appealing coming legal status of abortion, but it need not sonal decor, and psycho-babble about
from the neo-con right, which should require pro-life Republicans to abandon child rearing.
know better. this goal altogether. Americans are feeling this loss and
Why is Thomas appalled that one of some are turning to Stewart to rekindle
these libertarians asserts that the indi- the flame that feminism extinguished.
vidual is the most basic unit of society? What really bothers Stewart’s detrac-
It strikes me as a banal observation. tors is that this flame is being rekindled
Most people who assert this recognize by a Grinch in mother’s clothing.
the significance of families, and also Jan Krauss
understand that families are made up of Annapolis, MD
individuals. If Thomas wants to argue
with Max Stirner’s ghost, he’s welcome
to it, but he shouldn’t pretend that his TTHHEE PPEERRSSOONNAALL IISSNN’’TT PPOOLLIITTIICCAALL
argument is with contemporary liber-
tarians, most of whom are decidedly Let me get this straight: You approve
conservative on family issues. of the fact that Newt Gingrich is
The cause of our social breakdown is one of those people who “burn with the
not individualism, but the willingness knowledge that everything is politi-
of the state to subsidize individual im- cal—that every decision they must
morality and encourage a state-fostered make, every thought they think, is
culture that promotes moral, aesthetic, laden with ideological meaning” (“In
and intellectual cretinism. Defense of Newt Gingrich,” Dec. 25).
John A. Kelleher Excuse me? Since when did “the
Summit, NJ personal is the political” become con-
servative doctrine? The last time I
Schlafly insists that the moral venue looked, it was a left-wing slogan with
As Generation Xers, Andrew Peyton concerning abortion is complete be- totalitarian implications.
Thomas and I share “an almost cause it “exists in the holy books of the Maybe your editorial writer needs to
eerie ability to recite dialogue from The world’s great religions.” Thus, the pro- take a couple of weeks off and spend
Brady Bunch,” but not much else. life movement should try to turn these them outside the Beltway, talking to
Thomas believes that the wish of principles into legal reality. This over- non-wonks about non-policy. He might
Generation Xer’s to be free from “high- looks the fact that we live in a democra- even consider joining a support group:
er taxes and restrictions on sexual liber- cy, where consensus must be reached Enthusiasts Anonymous.
ation” has destroyed families, un- among citizens, not religions. Terry Teachout
leashed social pathologies, and in- We also need to focus on a moral New York, NY
creased women’s role in the work force. approach in order to win protection for
He could be forgiven for his hyperbole the unborn in the future, and to stop the TThhee eeddiittoorrss rreessppoonndd:: We were
if he weren’t so far off the mark. number of abortions being performed being ironic.
It’s not freedom from personal res- in the present. How can anyone quarrel
ponsibility that Generation Xers are with our political successes? The
seeking, but freedom from government answer is simple: They have not JJEEFFFFOORRDDSS,, GGOOPP DDEETTRRAACCTTOORR
excess. There’s no correlation between reduced the number of abortions. To
coming from a loving family and believ- achieve that kind of success requires a Thanks to Matthew Rees for his por-
ing that taxes are too high and that new strategy that seeks first to win the trayal of the perfidious Sen. James
morality ought not be legislated. hearts of Americans. Jeffords (“How Jeffords Obstructs,”
Lee Kessler Tracy Locklin Jan. 1/Jan. 8). Jeffords’s crimes are not
Palatine, IL Charlottesville, VA confined to inveterate liberalism. Since
6/ THEWEEKLYSTANDARD JANUARY22, 1996
Iss. 19/Jan. 22 letters 7/23/02 3:18 PM Page 3
Correspppondence
at least 1980 he has exhibited a perverse TTHHIIRRDD PPAARRTTIIEESS AARREE SSHHUUTT OOUUTT view to a Dutch pedophile magazine
delight in sticking it to his own party. with ties to NAMBLA in which he
He was the only Republican to sign a Contrary to your editorial (“The appeared to endorse pedophilia.
pledge to support Kemp-Roth in 1980 Vanity of Third-Party Politics,” (Underwager later said that he’d been
and then renege on it. He supported Jan. 1/Jan. 8), there are significant misunderstood and that he opposes
John Anderson over Ronald Reagan for structural barriers to independent par- pedophilia.)
president in 1980. He was the only ties operating in the U.S. Underwager’s findings, that children
Republican in the House to oppose In Florida, the ballot-access laws for repeatedly asked leading questions
Reagan’s tax bill. He provided the sole new parties are so severe, there has not about sexual abuse may report they
Republican vote for a Democratic bud- been a third-party or independent can- were abused even if they were not, may
get bill that passed by one vote. didate on the ballot for governor since well be true. But by applying those find-
On recent trips back to Vermont, 1920. Florida requires parties with less ings to Fells Acres, Rabinowitz and oth-
Jeffords made a special point of blasting than 5 percent registration membership ers ignore evidence that most of the
Newt Gingrich and the Contract with to submit 196,788 valid signatures to be children who testified against the
America. It seems the first thing that on the ballot for statewide office. Amiraults disclosed what had hap-
comes to this man’s mind every day is In addition, third-party and inde- pened to them spontaneously, or dis-
“How can I revile fellow Republicans?” pendent candidates must also pay can- closed specific details of abuse in
Except when he is up for reelection, of didate filing fees, which are over response to general, non-specific ques-
course, when he preaches “party unity.” $10,000 for congressional candidates. tions.
The school-voucher caper offers an- Except for the Henry Wallace As with all child-abuse cases, Fells
other example of Jeffords at his worst. Progressive Party in California in 1948, Acres is immensely complicated. A
At least he has enough integrity to no third-party or independent candi- judge’s decision last summer to over-
repay the NEA for backing him in 1994. date has ever managed to overcome a turn two of the three convictions
John McClaughry petition hurdle greater than 135,000 because the children who testified were
Kirby, VT signatures, in any state, in the history of allowed to face the judge and the jury
the United States. rather than the defendants raises an
The Florida petition requirement of important constitutional question: the
IINN DDEEFFEENNSSEE OOFF CCOOCCHHRRAANN 196,788, on top of huge filing fees, is right literally to face one’s accuser.
prohibitive. If you think it is easy to What’s crucial to keep in mind is
In “Cochran of the Walk” (Dec. 25), obtain 196,788 valid signatures, please that not one piece of new evidence has
Matt Labash bashes the Olender note that two days ago, the Rhode emerged in the decade since the
Foundation for giving Johnnie Coch- Island secretary of state announced that Amiraults’ two trials took place.
ran the Advocate for Justice award. He Pat Buchanan, Phil Gramm, and Steve Every issue raised by Rabinowitz
further erroneously asserts that as Forbes all failed to qualify for the presi- was explored at length by the
“Washington’s medical malpractice dential primary because they failed to Amiraults’ talented, aggressive defense
king,” my ads seek out “brain dead submit 1,000 valid signatures. lawyers. There is no reason to believe
babies.” My ads are aimed at the par- Richard Winger that anyone reviewing the case today is
ents of brain-damaged babies. I have San Francisco, CA more likely to arrive at the truth than
pioneered their representation, obtain- the 24 jurors who sat through those tri-
ing the first multimillion-dollar verdict als.
for such injuries in 1976. CCHHIILLDD--AABBUUSSEE CCOOMMPPLLIICCAATTIIOONNSS Dan Kennedy
I expected that some might disagree Boston, MA
with my choice, so I made myself avail- In his profile of Wall Street Journal
able to explain why I believe Cochran is editorial-page writer Dorothy Rabi-
one of the great lawyers of this genera- nowitz (“America’s Foremost Muckrak-
tion. But Labash was less interested in er,” Jan. 1/Jan. 8), Tucker Carlson wrote
hearing why I, along with many others, that Boston’s “local alternative paper
respect Cochran. He stalked around our implied that Rabinowitz was in league THEWEEKLYSTANDARD
event looking for someone who would with the North American Man-Boy welcomes letters to the editor.
say something bad about our honoree. Love Association.” Letters will be edited for length and
Since that didn’t happen, Labash I wrote the article Carlson cited, and clarity and must include the writer’s
decided to take a few whacks himself, I dispute his characterization. I have name, address, and phone number.
referring to some of my guests as never questioned Rabinowitz’s integri- All letters should be addressed:
“crows’-footed atrophied socialites.” ty, although I believe she misconstrued
Did I say his article was about Cochran? the evidence against the Amirault fami- Correspondence Editor
Well, let’s just say it meandered a bit to ly in her commentaries on the Fells THEWEEKLYSTANDARD
sneer at just about everyone who wasn’t Acres child-sexual-abuse case. 1150 17th St., NW
able-bodied, white, and young, or, for I did write that Rabinowitz was rely- Washington, DC 20036.
that matter, like-minded. ing in part on research pioneered by a You may also fax letters: [phone].
Jack H. Olender controversial psychologist, Ralph
Washington, DC Underwager, who in 1992 gave an inter-
JANUARY, 1996 THEWEEKLYSTANDARD/ 7
Iss. 19/Jan. 22 log 7/23/02 3:18 PM Page 1
Conservatism After
the Budget Battle
It was nice while it lasted. The GOP owned sole Wait, wait, conservatives will say: no fair. And
bragging rights to credibility on the balanced bud- they’re right. The credit the White House claims for
get. It was a hugely popular goal and issue. It was good-faith budget bargaining these past few months is
an apt shorthand slogan for limited-government con- wholly undeserved. The newspapers are dutifully
servatism. Then, too (don’t tell anyone), it was a con- printing boxed charts purporting to show how “far”
venient roof under which to shelter and tinker with the president has “moved” toward the GOP since his
that broader agenda until Republicans were ready to original spending request for fiscal year 1996. But that
unveil it in the full light of day. What did it mean to be first Clinton budget featured $200-billion annual
a conservative in national politics for most of the past deficits into the next century. By the standards he now,
year? Simple: It meant support for an end to federal belatedly, demands to be judged by—perfect balance
deficits by 2002, a goal Democrats in seven years—the president has
and liberals opposed. only just come to the table. He has-
Poof. For all practical purposes, clinton has n’t “moved” an inch.
that clear, easily explicable partisan Nor has he offered a budget that
nullified the
and ideological distinction has dis- can with justice be mentioned in
balanced-budget
appeared. It vanished on Saturday the same breath as the admirably
night, January 6, when President issue for 1996. this sturdy and serious Republican plan.
Clinton played his trump card: a means the GOP Until the year 2002, Clinton propos-
budget plan, certified by the Con- es to squeeze only the tiniest
must now focus its
gressional Budget Office, that gets to droplets of necessary cash from the
zero (in theory) in seven years. Just energies on entitlement programs that are
like Newt’s. Except that Clinton’s promoting spending themselves and the coun-
version of this budget preserves try into insolvency. He is willing to
conservative ideas.
existing federal commitments to the accept none of the major structural
elderly, the poor, the young, and reforms required to salvage those
God’s green earth, while the GOP programs—or ensure overall federal
proposal relaxes those commitments in favor of more fiscal health—much beyond that date. Most of the sav-
generous tax relief for families and job-creating busi- ings with which the Clinton budget is scheduled to
nesses. Or at least, that’s the story Clinton will tell— totter over the finish line will be achieved all at once,
and it’s a story he can back up using the same rhetoric at the very last moment. Or so we’re supposed to
as the Republicans: seven years, CBO-certified. believe. And his middle-class tax cut, which is stingy
So the basic question—balanced budget, yes or to begin with, expires one month before election day
no?—is now obsolete. That question had worked to in the year 2000, as if the laws of politics might some-
Democratic disadvantage by margins of three- and how magically be suspended in the future. This will
four-to-one. A troublesome development, indeed, for force whoever is president on Jan. 1, 2001, to find
Republicans and conservatives. And to deal with it, some more money in the budget to reach balance.
Republicans need to shift the focus of their energy So the Clinton budget is something of a political
away from number-drenched budgeteering and scam. That doesn’t matter. It is not the job of the Con-
toward, instead, a presidential campaign in which ide- gressional Budget Office—which is now, at the GOP’s
ological conservatism might (and should) still carry insistence, the final arbiter of such matters—to deter-
the day. And the sooner they do it, the better. mine how well a given budget comports with political
JANUARY22, 1996 THEWEEKLYSTANDARD/ 9
Iss. 19/Jan. 22 log 7/23/02 3:18 PM Page 2
reality. Nor can CBO pronounce with confidence on instead, it might just as likely help delay that future,
the implications of a current spending proposal for fis- by making Clinton look good in contrast to the
cal balance 15 or 20 years from now. “Seven years and Republican “ideological intransigence” he is sure to
CBO” has been the loudest Republican demand since mention at every whistlestop.
November, and it has, however narrowly, been met by Any way you cut it, getting to zero, green-eyeshade
the White House. President Clinton is gleefully wav- style, has suddenly and dramatically receded in impor-
ing around a letter from CBO director June O’Neill tance for the rest of this year. The GOP had better dust
that proves it. off the meatier, limited-government conservatism it
As the budget battle stands, the president and Con- has submerged in months of budget horse trading and
gress are divided by policy differences that involve less remind the country—and itself—why Bill Clinton
than 1 percent of total federal spending. The numbers shouldn’t be reelected in November, whatever the bud-
mislead, each side proclaims; those policy differences get outcome might be.
are “profound” and “fundamental.” And they’re right. At his press conference last week, the president
But are there more than a few thousand people in the said he was unwilling “to fundamentally change the
entire country who could understand exactly why? commitment of the Medicare program to the health of
The Republican plan would “block-grant” Medicaid, senior citizens” or “to fundamentally change the com-
incorporate medical savings accounts into the mitment of the Medicaid program to senior citizens,
Medicare program, and open the Arctic National to poor children, to the disabled.” Take away the
Wildlife Refuge to oil exploration. President Clinton loaded rhetoric, and that’s essentially true. Democrats
would not. This is not the stuff of a stirring national are still unwilling to “fundamentally change” the com-
election. mitment of the federal government to anythingthat has
This leaves Republicans and conservatives with ever been identified as a social or economic problem—
limited options in the short term. None of them is all which is why the federal government continues to
that attractive. Swallowing hard and forging a deal maintain its commitment, in crude and counterpro-
would help Republican congressional candidates in ductive fashion, to all such problems.
the fall; the GOP would have kept its promise and bal- Conservatism means to replace this ubiquitous fed-
anced the budget. But that deal would disappoint con- eral presence in American life with a revivified private
servative policy principle and help Clinton’s reelection sphere, by returning some significant portion of cur-
chances, too. rent government authority (and tax dollars) to individ-
Alternatively, Speaker Gingrich and Senator Dole ual citizens. And it means to continue that effort
might attempt to engineer a more favorable compro- whether or not there’s a balanced budget along still
mise with congressional Democrats. This is an unlike- realistically achievable lines in the next few months.
ly scenario; even if the votes are there to pass such a At least that’s what you’d expect and hope the Repub-
bill, there’s no chance this odd coalition could success- lican party’s overarching, relentlessly promoted mes-
fully override a Clinton veto. sage to be. Pollster Fred Steeper told us, in the wake of
A third option is to refuse a deal, on grounds that the 1994 election, that cultural conservatism was the
wimpy half-measures would fatally wound the Republican revolution’s primary cause. The issues that
momentum of further conservative reform in the move the electorate are still the natural province of the
future. That might once have worked—before the GOP. Seize the year. Time’s a-wastin’.
president submitted a balanced budget. But now, —David Tell, for the Editors
Advantage: Bill Clinton
all the Republicans’ demands.
But they’re so rigid they’re will-
ing to pass up this historic
by Fred Barnes
opportunity to balance the bud-
get if we don’t make dangerous
REPUBLICANSHAVEPUTPRESIDENTCLINTONin a cuts in Medicare, Medicaid, education, and the envi-
politically enviable position. He’s now poised ronment, and approve an enormous tax cut.”
to say something like this in his State of the In fact, Clinton has already said roughly this, both
Union address on January 23: “I’ve produced a bal- when the budget talks collapsed on January 9 and at
anced budget, using the conservative assumptions of his press conference on January 11. He just hasn’t said
the bipartisan Congressional Budget Office. I’ve met it to a national TV audience during prime time. Now
10/ THEWEEKLYSTANDARD JANUARY22, 1996
Iss. 19/Jan. 22 log 7/23/02 3:18 PM Page 3
he will, and Republicans are hard pressed to come up But there’s agreement among GOP leaders that
with a strong response. The reason is there may not be these things aren’t enough. They need to broaden the
one, given the way they have inadvertently set the issue beyond a squabble over whose budget is better,
stage for Clinton’s speech. “I’m worried about how theirs or Clinton’s. The president wins that argument,
we’re going to rebut it,” says Senate Whip Trent Lott. if only because he’s willing to distort the Republican
House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Senate Majori- position on Medicare, Medicaid, and taxes.
ty Leader Bob Dole changed their tactics in the bud- The best idea is for a Republican summit of gover-
get battle with the White House at an opportune nors, local officials, and members of Congress a day or
moment for Clinton. The press was finally figuring out two before Clinton’s speech. The event would be out-
that the president, having failed to present a seven- side Washington and, if Lott has his way, before a live
year balanced budget certified by the CBO, wasn’t bar- audience and with full TV coverage. It will take a
gaining in good faith. And poll numbers were begin- major event like that to “compete with Clinton,” says
ning to turn against Clinton. Republicans threw him a Lott.
lifeline: If Clinton merely offered a seven-year bud- The summit scheme was first proposed by GOP
get—he didn’t have to agree to a final deal—they’d call pollster Frank Luntz. He urged several House and
off the partial government shutdown. Senate Republicans to organize the summit around
That wasn’t all. The GOP plan was to end the talks “the broader message” that “Washington is our ene-
flatly if Clinton wasn’t receptive to their latest budget my” and Clinton is protecting it from change and
proposal, which was a big step closer reform. Luntz’s script calls for the
to the White House position. By keynoter of the summit to declare:
announcing the talks were off, it “I’m Worried,” says “This is a historic debate about the
would put pressure on the president role and scope of Washington;
senate whip trent
to reopen them by making a new whether Washington will continue
lott, “about how
offer, closer to the Republican bud- to tax more, spend more, regulate
get. Well, he wasn’t receptive, but he we’re going to more and control more . . . or
asked Republicans to announce the whether we will begin to reduce the
rebut” clinton’s
talks are only in short recess. They size, scope and power of Washing-
coming attack on
did. This reinforces the myth that ton.”
Clinton is being flexible on the sticky the GOp’s “If fought on the bigger vision,
issues—Medicare, Medicaid, taxes— budget stance. we win,” Luntz says. “We have test-
though he isn’t. ed this theme across the country, and
Clinton and congressional it is the only message we know of
Democrats were gleeful. “Congres- that beats the current Clinton
sional leaders and I have agreed already to far more effort.”
than enough reductions in government spending to Engler, the governor most involved in the budget
balance the budget within seven years,” insisted Clin- talks, has a slightly different version of how to frame
ton. “The debate is no longer one about balancing the the debate, with Clinton representing the status quo,
budget,” said Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle, Republicans change and reform.
happy that issue has been neutralized. “Basically the At best, Republicans will take the edge off Clin-
issue is now the size of the tax cut and who gets it.” ton’s speech. At worst, they’ll look silly or irrelevant.
So what do Republicans do about the State of the But they are not likely to put any pressure on Clinton
Union, given the new situation? A few small things, to revise his budget. That is largely out of Republican
such as having the House and Senate vote again on a hands. The consensus among Republicans is that it
Balanced Budget Amendment just before the presi- will take external pressure—a large dip by financial
dent’s speech, have been recommended. Or Dole, markets or a Clinton tumble in opinion polls—for the
whose turn it is to choose the Republican who White House to move.
responds on TV to Clinton, could pick Sen. Ben The one tool Republicans have is the Hillary Rod-
Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado. Campbell could ham Clinton issue, but it’s a two-edged sword. Engler,
explain that he quit the Democratic party and became for one, believes the president might be more eager for
a Republican last year precisely because of the politics a deal if the Hillary scandal worsens. But the opposite
and practices that Clinton and congressional Democ- is just as plausible. If Hillary’s troubles are damaging
rats continue to pursue. Gov. John Engler of Michigan the Clinton presidency, then Clinton will need the
thinks Republicans should pass their revised balanced support of as many Democrats on Capitol Hill as pos-
budget and send it to Clinton the day before the sible. He won’t get them by lurching toward Gingrich
speech. and Dole in the budget talks. ♦
JANUARY22, 1996 THEWEEKLYSTANDARD/ 11