The Unquiet Frontier: Rising Rivals, Vulnerable Allies, and the Crisis of American Power

241 Pages·2016·4.66 MB·english

by  Jakub J. Grygiel

The UnqUieT FronTier

T h e
U n q U i e T
F r o n T i e r
Rising Rivals, Vulnerable Allies,
and the Crisis of American Power
JakUb J. GryGiel
a. Wess MiTchell
Princeton University Press
Princeton and oxford
copyright © 2016 by Princeton University Press
Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William street, Princeton,
new Jersey 08540
in the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, 6 oxford street,
Woodstock, oxfordshire ox20 1tW
press.princeton.edu
Jacket image courtesy of shutterstock / typeface by Lost type
all rights reserved
isBn 978-0- 691-16375- 8
Library of congress control number 2015954474
British Library cataloging- in- Publication data is available
this book has been composed in sabon next Lt & scalasansot
Printed on acid- free paper. ∞
Printed in the United states of america
1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2
For
Priya
and
elizabeTh

ConTenTs
List of iLLustrations viii
acknowLedgments ix
ChapTer 1
inTrodUCTion: ameriCan power aT The
Global FronTier 1
ChapTer 2
ameriCa’s deprioriTizaTion oF allies 15
ChapTer 3
revisionisT powers’ probinG behavior 42
ChapTer 4
responses oF U.s. allies 77
ChapTer 5
The beneFiTs oF allianCes 117
ChapTer 6
reCommendaTions 155
notes 191
seLected BiBLiography 207
index 217
illUsTraTions
FiGUre 1.1. U.s. FronTier allies worldwide 2
FiGUre 1.2. spykman’s rimlands 6
FiGUre 4.1. miliTary expendiTUres in seleCT asean
CoUnTries 83
FiGUre 4.2. GrowTh oF deFense bUdGeTs in GCC sTaTes 85
FiGUre 4.3. deFense spendinG inCreases in Cee
CoUnTries 88
FiGUre 4.4. menU Card: allied CopinG sTraTeGies 112
FiGUre 5.1. U.s. and allies’ miliTary spendinG 139
FiGUre 5.2. Forward- deployed ForCe deploymenT
eFFeCTs in The GeorGia sCenario 147
aCknowledGmenTs
in the many months since we began the research that led to this
book we have formed debts too extensive to repay here. We are espe-
cially grateful to nadia schadlow for her encouragement, ideas, and
support, as well as to her colleagues at the smith richardson foun-
dation, Marin strmecki and allan song, for providing the grants to
the center for european Policy analysis (cePa) where this project
was conceived, researched, and written. We are indebted to cePa
chairman Larry Hirsch for his friendship and tireless commitment to
deepening U.s. strategic thinking to navigate a more dangerous world.
school of advanced international studies (sais) colleagues charles
doran and eliot cohen heard various iterations of arguments pre-
sented here and offered support and comments. sais deans vali nasr
and John Harrington also made possible a sabbatical for Jakub that
helped when we made our final writing push.
this book would not have come into being without adam Gar-
finkle’s agreement to publish an early version of the argument as an
article in The American Interest. We’re also grateful to The National
In terest for publishing a subsequent article in which many of the rec -
ommendations in this book were first aired. We received critical ap-
praisals and suggestions from aaron friedberg and colin dueck that
helped to sharpen key parts of our argument. We are grateful to our
colleagues at cePa, especially Peter doran and ilona teleki, for creat-
ing a supportive intellectual environment for creative thinking about
central and eastern european and global geopolitics, as well as to
Milda Boyce at cePa and starr Lee at sais- JHU for seamless admin-
istration, planning, and trips.
a small army of cePa research assistants fielded an array of un-
quenchable inquiries. We’re grateful to Leah scheunemann for her