The Trajectory of Iran’s Nuclear Program

284 Pages·2015·1.819 MB·English

by  Michele Gaietta (auth.)

The Trajectory of Iran’s
Nuclear Program
The Trajectory of Iran’s
Nuclear Program
Michele Gaietta
the trajectory of iran’s nuclear program
Copyright © Michele Gaietta, 2015.
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2015 978-1-137-54168-0
All rights reserved.
First published in 2015 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN® in the United States—
a division of St. Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010.
Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this
is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited,
registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke,
Hampshire RG21 6XS.
Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and
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Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the
United Kingdom, Europe and other countries.
ISBN 978-1-349-57841-2 ISBN 978-1-137-50825-6 (eBook)
DOI 10.1057/9781137508256
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Gaietta, Michele, 1982–
The trajectory of Iran’s nuclear program / Michele Gaietta.
pages cm
Summary: “The Trajectory of Iran’s Nuclear Program offers a unique
in-depth historical and technical description of Iran’s nuclear program,
highlighting the extraordinarily shifting political, economic, and strategic
contexts that have influenced the evolution of Iran’s nuclear activities. More
than thirteen years after the outbreak of the Iran nuclear issue and about sixty
years after the first agreement on research into peaceful uses of atomic energy,
huge uncertainty still persists about the future of Iran’s nuclear program, as
well as the possible reasons behind the political and financial effort put by the
country into its advancement in the nuclear field. The author makes a valuable
contribution to a better understanding of this crucial issue’s past and present
states of affairs, pointing out its connections with the evolution of global and
regional strategic balances, as well as the stability of the international regime
against the proliferation of nuclear weapons”— Provided by publisher.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Nuclear weapons—Iran. 2. Nuclear energy—Government policy—
Iran. 3. Nuclear arms control—Iran. 4. Iran—Politics and government—
1979–1997. 5. Iran—Politics and government—1997– I. Title.
U264.5.I7G35 2015
623.4’51190955—dc23 2015007503
A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library.
Design by SPi Global.
First edition: September 2015
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
In memory of my uncle, Dario Piola
Contents
List of Figures ix
Acknowledgments xi
Introduction 1
1 The Nuclear Program of the Shah (1957–79) 5
2 The Impact of the Revolution (1979–89) 31
3 Progressive Consolidation (1989–98) 49
4 Expansion and Disclosure (1998–2003) 73
5 Diplomacy at Work (2003–05) 95
6 Sanctions and Tensions (2005–08) 111
7 Possible Military Dimensions (1989–2003) 137
8 Negotiations and Pressures (2008–12) 153
9 Rouhani’s Prudence and Hopes 181
Conclusion 213
Notes 219
Bibliography (Books and Journals) 267
Index 273
List of Figures
0.1 The Nuclear Fuel Cycle xii
1.1 Iran Nuclear Sites: Operational, In Construction, and
Projected/Minor (1958–1978) 22
3.1 Iran Nuclear Sites: Operational, In Construction, and
Projected/Minor (1979–1998) 71
4.1 Design, Component, and Production Centers P-1/IR-1
Gas Centrifuge 85
6.1 Natanz (FEP), Centrifuge Installed, Fed with UF and
6
Under Vacuum (2007–2011) 129
8.1 Natanz (FEP), Units Fed with UF, Impact of STUXNET
6
(2007–2012) 166
8.2 Natanz (PFEP) + Fordow, LEU 20% Production and
Stock (2010–2013) 176
9.1 Iran Nuclear Sites: Operational, In Construction, and
Projected/Minor (1998–2014) 210
Acknowledgments
Ten years have passed since I began collecting information on the Iranian
nuclear program for my MA thesis. However, it was in doctoral school at
the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart in Milan that I deepened my
research and analysis on the several historical, political, technical, and stra-
tegic aspects that should be addressed to achieve a better understanding of
the whole question. This book is therefore largely based on my doctoral
thesis “The Iranian Nuclear Program: Analysis, Motivations, Perspectives.”
Its publication would not have been possible without considerable support
from a great number of people.
First and foremost, I am extremely grateful to my supervisor, Professor
Roberto Zoboli, for his guidance and encouragement over the course of
many years. Special thanks also to Professor Riccardo Redaelli for giving me
his in-depth comments and thoughts that have helped me gain a better
understanding of the Iranian perspective on the matter. I would like to
thank Mark Fitzpatrick for our meetings in London and for giving me the
chance to collaborate with the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Additional thanks to Professor Farian Sabahi, Professor Mario Agostino
Maggioni, and to the officials of the Foreign Ministry and Diplomatic Corps
of Italy who I met in Rome and Vienna. Many thanks also to ISODARCO
(International School on Disarmament and Research on Conflicts) and to
ESARDA (European Safeguards Research & Development Association) for
giving me opportunities for discussion with leading experts in the field of
nuclear nonproliferation.
I have also benefitted from the help of colleagues and friends. Above
all to two people: Professor Antonio Zotti, who offered me valuable com-
ments and suggestions on my PhD manuscript and subsequent revisions,
and Judge Fabio Rossi, who introduced me to Iranian officials in Bern.
Thanks also to Luca Romano for his help in the translation and editing
xii ● Acknowledgments
of the work and to Massimo Cagnoni, rest in peace, for his technical
advice.
On a more personal note, I thank my great family for their enduring sup-
port throughout this endeavor. Last but not least, a special thanks to Andreana
for her patience and love.
Figure 0.1 The Nuclear Fuel Cycle
Introduction
On March 5, 1957, representatives of Iran and the United States
signed a proposed agreement in Tehran for cooperation on research
in the peaceful uses of atomic energy, marking Iran’s first step into
the nuclear world.
On April 2, 2015, Iran and the representatives of the P5+1—China,
France, Great Britain, the United States, and Russia, plus Germany—with
the mediation of the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign
Affairs and Security Policy, reached a political understanding on key param-
eters for a comprehensive long-term agreement on the Iranian nuclear pro-
gram, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, to be detailed and written by
June 30, 2015.
Despite the gap of 58 years between these events, uncertainty still persists
about the future of Iran’s nuclear program, and its possible motivations
behind investments in the nuclear field.
Since its initiation in the 1950s, Iran’s nuclear program has experienced
extraordinary shifts in the political, economic, and strategic fields, including
the transition from the Pahlavi monarchy to the Islamic regime, and the evo-
lution of the latter’s inner balances of power. In this perspective, the title of
this book, The Trajectory of Iran’s Nuclear Program, better conveys the idea of
an overall development influenced by a number of different motivations and
actors. It also introduces the cumulative nature of the evolution of the pro-
gram, whose more salient features are very difficult to understand if solely
investigated through mono-dimensional and unilateral interpretations.
From its first experimental stage (1957–73) the program passed through a
period of significant expansion under the shah (1974–78). Then years of
decline and dismantling (1979–86) were followed by a renewed interest
under the Islamic regime (1987–96) before a new expansion (1997–2002)
was slowed down by the disclosure of the nuclear facilities in Natanz and
Arak. These, in turn, opened a long phase of confrontation between Iran and
the international community on the clarification of the exclusively peaceful
nature of the country’s nuclear activities (2003–14).
The importance of the nuclear program for Iranian governments and citi-
zens has constantly grown and been charged with increasing political and