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284 Pages·2015·1.819 MB·English
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The Trajectory of Iran’s Nuclear Program The Trajectory of Iran’s Nuclear Program Michele Gaietta the trajectory of iran’s nuclear program Copyright © Michele Gaietta, 2015. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2015 978-1-137-54168-0 All rights reserved. First published in 2015 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN® in the United States— a division of St. Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-57841-2 ISBN 978-1-137-50825-6 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9781137508256 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Gaietta, Michele, 1982– The trajectory of Iran’s nuclear program / Michele Gaietta. pages cm Summary: “The Trajectory of Iran’s Nuclear Program offers a unique in-depth historical and technical description of Iran’s nuclear program, highlighting the extraordinarily shifting political, economic, and strategic contexts that have influenced the evolution of Iran’s nuclear activities. More than thirteen years after the outbreak of the Iran nuclear issue and about sixty years after the first agreement on research into peaceful uses of atomic energy, huge uncertainty still persists about the future of Iran’s nuclear program, as well as the possible reasons behind the political and financial effort put by the country into its advancement in the nuclear field. The author makes a valuable contribution to a better understanding of this crucial issue’s past and present states of affairs, pointing out its connections with the evolution of global and regional strategic balances, as well as the stability of the international regime against the proliferation of nuclear weapons”— Provided by publisher. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Nuclear weapons—Iran. 2. Nuclear energy—Government policy— Iran. 3. Nuclear arms control—Iran. 4. Iran—Politics and government— 1979–1997. 5. Iran—Politics and government—1997– I. Title. U264.5.I7G35 2015 623.4’51190955—dc23 2015007503 A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. Design by SPi Global. First edition: September 2015 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 In memory of my uncle, Dario Piola Contents List of Figures ix Acknowledgments xi Introduction 1 1 The Nuclear Program of the Shah (1957–79) 5 2 The Impact of the Revolution (1979–89) 31 3 Progressive Consolidation (1989–98) 49 4 Expansion and Disclosure (1998–2003) 73 5 Diplomacy at Work (2003–05) 95 6 Sanctions and Tensions (2005–08) 111 7 Possible Military Dimensions (1989–2003) 137 8 Negotiations and Pressures (2008–12) 153 9 Rouhani’s Prudence and Hopes 181 Conclusion 213 Notes 219 Bibliography (Books and Journals) 267 Index 273 List of Figures 0.1 The Nuclear Fuel Cycle xii 1.1 Iran Nuclear Sites: Operational, In Construction, and Projected/Minor (1958–1978) 22 3.1 Iran Nuclear Sites: Operational, In Construction, and Projected/Minor (1979–1998) 71 4.1 Design, Component, and Production Centers P-1/IR-1 Gas Centrifuge 85 6.1 Natanz (FEP), Centrifuge Installed, Fed with UF and 6 Under Vacuum (2007–2011) 129 8.1 Natanz (FEP), Units Fed with UF, Impact of STUXNET 6 (2007–2012) 166 8.2 Natanz (PFEP) + Fordow, LEU 20% Production and Stock (2010–2013) 176 9.1 Iran Nuclear Sites: Operational, In Construction, and Projected/Minor (1998–2014) 210 Acknowledgments Ten years have passed since I began collecting information on the Iranian nuclear program for my MA thesis. However, it was in doctoral school at the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart in Milan that I deepened my research and analysis on the several historical, political, technical, and stra- tegic aspects that should be addressed to achieve a better understanding of the whole question. This book is therefore largely based on my doctoral thesis “The Iranian Nuclear Program: Analysis, Motivations, Perspectives.” Its publication would not have been possible without considerable support from a great number of people. First and foremost, I am extremely grateful to my supervisor, Professor Roberto Zoboli, for his guidance and encouragement over the course of many years. Special thanks also to Professor Riccardo Redaelli for giving me his in-depth comments and thoughts that have helped me gain a better understanding of the Iranian perspective on the matter. I would like to thank Mark Fitzpatrick for our meetings in London and for giving me the chance to collaborate with the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Additional thanks to Professor Farian Sabahi, Professor Mario Agostino Maggioni, and to the officials of the Foreign Ministry and Diplomatic Corps of Italy who I met in Rome and Vienna. Many thanks also to ISODARCO (International School on Disarmament and Research on Conflicts) and to ESARDA (European Safeguards Research & Development Association) for giving me opportunities for discussion with leading experts in the field of nuclear nonproliferation. I have also benefitted from the help of colleagues and friends. Above all to two people: Professor Antonio Zotti, who offered me valuable com- ments and suggestions on my PhD manuscript and subsequent revisions, and Judge Fabio Rossi, who introduced me to Iranian officials in Bern. Thanks also to Luca Romano for his help in the translation and editing xii ● Acknowledgments of the work and to Massimo Cagnoni, rest in peace, for his technical advice. On a more personal note, I thank my great family for their enduring sup- port throughout this endeavor. Last but not least, a special thanks to Andreana for her patience and love. Figure 0.1 The Nuclear Fuel Cycle Introduction On March 5, 1957, representatives of Iran and the United States signed a proposed agreement in Tehran for cooperation on research in the peaceful uses of atomic energy, marking Iran’s first step into the nuclear world. On April 2, 2015, Iran and the representatives of the P5+1—China, France, Great Britain, the United States, and Russia, plus Germany—with the mediation of the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, reached a political understanding on key param- eters for a comprehensive long-term agreement on the Iranian nuclear pro- gram, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, to be detailed and written by June 30, 2015. Despite the gap of 58 years between these events, uncertainty still persists about the future of Iran’s nuclear program, and its possible motivations behind investments in the nuclear field. Since its initiation in the 1950s, Iran’s nuclear program has experienced extraordinary shifts in the political, economic, and strategic fields, including the transition from the Pahlavi monarchy to the Islamic regime, and the evo- lution of the latter’s inner balances of power. In this perspective, the title of this book, The Trajectory of Iran’s Nuclear Program, better conveys the idea of an overall development influenced by a number of different motivations and actors. It also introduces the cumulative nature of the evolution of the pro- gram, whose more salient features are very difficult to understand if solely investigated through mono-dimensional and unilateral interpretations. From its first experimental stage (1957–73) the program passed through a period of significant expansion under the shah (1974–78). Then years of decline and dismantling (1979–86) were followed by a renewed interest under the Islamic regime (1987–96) before a new expansion (1997–2002) was slowed down by the disclosure of the nuclear facilities in Natanz and Arak. These, in turn, opened a long phase of confrontation between Iran and the international community on the clarification of the exclusively peaceful nature of the country’s nuclear activities (2003–14). The importance of the nuclear program for Iranian governments and citi- zens has constantly grown and been charged with increasing political and

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