The timeline of presidential elections: how campaigns do (and do not) matter

221 Pages·2012·1.527 MB·English

by  Erickson, Robert S.;Wlezien, Christopher

The Timeline of Presidential Elections
Chicago Studies in American Politics
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The Timeline of
Presidential Elections
How Campaigns Do (and Do Not) Matter
ROBERT S. ERIKSON AND
CHRISTOPHER WLEZIEN
The University of Chicago Press
Chicago and London
Robert S. Erikson is professor of political science at Columbia University
and the author or coauthor of several books, including The Macro Polity.
Christopher Wlezien is professor of political science at Temple University
and coauthor, most recently, of Degrees of Democracy.
The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637
The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London
© 2012 by The University of Chicago
All rights reserved. Published 2012.
Printed in the United States of America
21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 1 2 3 4 5
ISBN-13: 978-0-226-92214-0 (cloth)
ISBN-13: 978-0-226-92215-7 (paper)
ISBN-13: 978-0-226-92216-4 (e-book)
ISBN-10: 0-226-92214-6 (cloth)
ISBN-10: 0-226-92215-4 (paper)
ISBN-10: 0-226-92216-2 (e-book)
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Erickson, Robert S.
The timeline of presidential elections : how campaigns do (and do not)
matter / Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien.
pages. cm.—(Chicago studies in American politics)
ISBN-13: 978-0-226-92214-0 (cloth : alkaline paper)
ISBN-10: 0-226-92214-6 (cloth : alkaline paper)
ISBN-13: 978-0-226-92215-7 (paperback : alkaline paper)
ISBN-10: 0-226-92215-4 (paperback : alkaline paper)
[etc.]
1. Presidents—United States—Election. 2. Political campaigns—United
States—History. 3. United States—Politics and government. I. Wlezien,
Christopher. II. Title.
JK524.E84 2012
324.973—dc23
2012002385
This paper meets the requirements of ANSI/NISO Z39.48–1992
(Permanence of Paper).
CONTENTS
Acknowledgments / vii
ONE / Election Campaigns and Voter Preferences / 1
TWO / Uncovering Vote Intentions using Trial-Heat Polls / 17
THREE / Thinking about Campaign Dynamics / 41
FOUR / Vote Intentions over the Campaign Timeline / 59
FIVE / From the Campaign to Election Day / 83
SIX / Sources of Change over the Campaign Timeline / 109
SEVEN / Campaign Dynamics and the Individual Voter / 139
EIGHT / The Evolution of Electoral Choice
over the Campaign Timeline / 165
Appendix / Vote Intention Data / 179
Notes / 181
References / 195
Index / 203

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The book has been long in coming. The origins can be traced to our initial
collaboration twenty years back. Before the 1992 presidential election, we
considered what explanatory models of past presidential elections could
tell us about the then upcoming election between George H. W. Bush and
Bill Clinton. As it turned out, our forecast was accurate, but it was designed
to work near the end of the campaign. Then, starting with the 1996 elec-
tion, we considered how the effects of the economy come into focus at par-
ticular stages in advance of the election. After this, we turned to trial-heat
polls of voter preferences between the candidates for the White House, and
then began to crystallize our thinking about the campaign “timeline.” The
result of that work is an article in the 2002 Journal of Politics, which intro-
duced our initial thoughts on the subject. In later election years, we be-
gan to explore how polls came to refl ect the economic fundamentals over
time and what they added to our understanding of the outcome. Our book
builds on all of this previous work, and develops and extends it in signifi -
cant ways.
The research would not have been possible without two separate grants
from the National Science Foundation. The fi rst enabled us to amass all of
the macrolevel poll data, the second to pull together the various microlevel
data. We received additional support from Columbia University’s Institute
for Social and Economic Research. For assistance in collecting and organiz-
ing the data, we thank Joseph Bafumi, Christopher Carman, Bruce Carroll,
Albert Fang, Yair Ghitza, Joe Howard, Kathy Javian, John Kastellec, Jason
Kelly, Krystyna Litton, Jeff May, Quinn Mulroy, Sharif Nesheiwat, Eldon
Porter, Kelly Rader, Amy Ware, and Alexander Wu. For generously sharing
other critical data, we thank Michael D. McDonald, James A. Stimson, and
John Zaller.
viii / Acknowledgements
We have many people to thank for helpful input over the years. There
were participants in seminars at Columbia University; the University of
Essex; Gallup Organization; Leiden University; the University of Man-
chester; University of Mannheim; Massachusetts Institute of Technology;
University of Minnesota; University of North Carolina; Oxford Univer-
sity; University of Surrey; Texas A&M University; University of Texas, Dal-
las; Trinity College, Dublin; and Washington University. There were par-
ticipants in panels at professional meetings in Cardiff, Chicago, Houston,
Montreal, San Antonio, Savannah, and Washington, D.C.
A large number of people have made signifi cant comments. Jane Green
read every chapter and in great detail and helped us see more clearly at
numerous points. Others made important marks, including Cristina Ad-
ams, Joseph Bafumi, James Campbell, Tereza Capelos, Harold Clarke,
George Edwards, Harry Enten, Geoff Evans, Steve Fisher, Rob Ford, Andrew
Gelman, Thomas Gschwend, Michael Hagen, Sunshine Hillygus, Tom Hol-
brook, Bill Jacoby, Will Jennings, Richard Johnston, Brad Jones, Andrew
Karch, Paul Kellstedt, Kathleen Knight, Yph Lelkes, Joseph McLaughlin,
Brendan Nyhan, Costas Panagopoulos, Josh Pasek, Colin Provost, Robert
Shapiro, Daron Shaw, Michael Sobel, Stuart Soroka, Evan Parker Stephen,
Marianne Stewart, Laura Stoker, and Dan Wood. We surely have missed the
names of others who contributed in important ways over the long life of
the project—we have tried our best to remember and apologize for not do-
ing better. We also thank the two anonymous reviewers of this book, espe-
cially for helping us focus more on the forest and less on the trees.
We also thank people at the University of Chicago Press. Of special note
is the contribution of the editors. Jamie Druckman read the book from
beginning to end and had an important impact on its parts and their sum.
We can’t thank him enough. John Tryneski provided critical input and
guidance in framing the book’s contribution. We are grateful for this and
for his patience throughout the editorial process. Rodney Powell helped us
negotiate fi nal revisions and begin production.
Finally, we owe special thanks to our families for letting us take the time
and energy needed to fi nish the book, something we weren’t able to do
prior to the 2004 and 2008 elections.
ONE
Election Campaigns and Voter Preferences
Imagine the timeline of a presidential election campaign. We begin the
timeline at some early point before the election, perhaps as soon as polls
ask voters whom they will support. The timeline ends on Election Day. At
the beginning, the polls reveal the electorate’s preliminary vote intentions.
On Election Day, at the end of the campaign, the electorate reaches a fi nal
verdict. In this book we trace the national vote division as it evolves over
the campaign timeline.
We ask: How much does the vote change over the timeline? Is the shift
a smooth trajectory, or does the aggregate vote lurch over the timeline in
a series of bumps and wiggles? What are the forces that infl uence the vote
and when do they occur? When new events affect the vote decision, how
long do the effects last? To what extent are their effects temporary and to
what extent do they persist to affect the outcome on Election Day? These
are some of the questions we address in this book. Their answers inform
us about the importance of the election campaigns—often beginning be-
fore the national party conventions—on the outcome of the presidential
election.
How much do campaigns matter? Here, some division can be seen be-
tween the views of political practitioners and journalists on the one hand,
and academic scholars on the other. Especially in the heat of the campaign,
practitioners and journalists emphasize elections as a battle of rival cam-
paigns, with the winning team determined by campaign quality plus the
random shocks from unexpected campaign events. In the extreme, elec-
tions are decided by which side is better at the public relations art of per-
suading voters.
Of course, all observers recognize that campaign outcomes involve
more than a combination of salesmanship and luck. When political scien-