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The third wave: democratization in the late twentieth century PDF

801 Pages·1991·1.71 MB·English
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The Julian J. Rothbaum Distinguished Lecture Series. Vol. 4, The Third Wave., title: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century author: Huntington, Samuel P. publisher: University of Oklahoma Press isbn10 | asin: 0806125160 print isbn13: 9780806125169 ebook isbn13: 9780585149516 language: English Democracy--History--20th century, Democratization--History--20th century, subject Authoritarianism--History--20th century, World politics--1975-1985, World politics- -1985-1995. publication date: 1991 lcc: JC421.H86 1991eb ddc: 321.8/09/04 Democracy--History--20th century, Democratization--History--20th century, subject: Authoritarianism--History--20th century, World politics--1975-1985, World politics- -1985-1995. Page iii The Third Wave Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century By Samuel P. Huntington UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA PRESS : NORMAN AND LONDON Page iv OTHER BOOKS BY SAMUEL P. HUNTINGTON The Soldier and the State: The Theory and Politics of Civil-Military Relations (Cambridge, MA, 1957) The Common Defense: Strategic Programs in National Politics (New York, 1961) Political Order in Changing Societies (New Haven, 1968) American Politics: The Promise of Disharmony (Cambridge, MA, 1981) Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Huntington, Samuel P. The third wave: democratization in the late twentieth century/ Samuel P. Huntington. p. cm.(The Julian J. Rothbaum distinguished lecture series; v. 4) Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. DemocracyHistory20th century. 2. Authoritarianism History20th century. 3. World politics19751985. 4. World politics 19851995. I. Title. II. Series. JC421.H86 1991 90-50690 321.8'09'04dc20 CIP ISBN: 0-8061-2346-X (cloth) ISBN: 0-8061-2516-0 (paper) The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century is Volume 4 in the Julian J. Rothbaum Distinguished Lecture Series. This book was written under the auspices of the Harvard University Center for International Affairs and its John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies. The paper in this book meets the guidelines for permanence and durability of the Committee on Production Guidelines for Book Longevity of the Council on Library Resources, Inc. Copyright © 1991 by Samuel P. Huntington. Published by the University of Oklahoma Press, Norman, Publishing Division of the University. All rights reserved. Manufactured in the U.S.A. First paperback printing, 1993. 6 7 8 9 10 11 Page v To the memory of Warren and Anita Page vii Contents Foreword page xi by Carl B. Albert Preface xiii 1. What? 3 The Start of the Third Wave 3 The Meaning of Democracy 5 The Waves of Democratization 13 The Issues of Democratization 26 2. Why? 31 Explaining Waves 31 Explaining Democratization Waves 34 Explaining the Third Wave 40 Declining Legitimacy and the Performance 46 Dilemma Economic Development and Economic Crises 59 Religious Changes 72 New Policies of External Actors 85 Demonstration Effects or Snowballing 100 From Causes to Causers 106 3. How? Processes of Democratization 109 Authoritarian Regimes 110 Transition Processes 121 Transformations 124 Page viii Guidelines for Democratizers 1: Reforming 141 Authoritarian Systems Replacements 142 Guidelines for Democratizers 2: Overthrowing 149 Authoritarian Regimes Transplacements 151 Guidelines for Democratizers 3: Negotiating Regime 162 Changes 4. How? Characteristics of Democratization 164 The Third Wave Democratization Syndrome 164 Compromise and the Participation/Moderation Trade- 165 off Elections: Stunning and Otherwise 174 Low Levels of Violence 192 5. How Long? 208 Consolidation and Its Problems 208 The Torturer Problem: Prosecute and Punish vs. 211 Forgive and Forget Guidelines for Democratizers 4: Dealing with 231 Authoritarian Crimes The Praetorian Problem: Rebellious and Powerful 231 Militaries Guidelines for Democratizers 5: Curbing Military 251 Power, Promoting Military Professionalism Contextual Problems, Disillusionment, and 253 Authoritarian Nostalgia Developing a Democratic Political Culture 258 Institutionalizing Democratic Political Behavior 265 Conditions Favoring Consolidation of New 270 Democracies 6. Whither? 280 Third Wave Causes: Continuing, Weakening, 281 Changing? A Third Reverse Wave? 290

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Between 1974 and 1990 more than thirty countries in southern Europe, Latin America, East Asia, and Eastern Europe shifted from authoritarian to democratic systems of government. This global democratic revolution is probably the most important political trend in the late twentieth century. In The Thi
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