Table Of Content

Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems 113 Erik W. Aslaksen The Stability of Society Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems Volume 113 Series Editor Janusz Kacprzyk, Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland Advisory Editors Fernando Gomide, Department of Computer Engineering and Automation—DCA, SchoolofElectricalandComputerEngineering—FEEC,UniversityofCampinas— UNICAMP, São Paulo, Brazil Okyay Kaynak, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey Derong Liu, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, USA; Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China Witold Pedrycz, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Alberta, Alberta, Canada; Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland Marios M. Polycarpou, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, KIOSResearchCenterforIntelligentSystemsandNetworks,UniversityofCyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus Imre J. Rudas, Óbuda University, Budapest, Hungary Jun Wang, Department of Computer Science, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong The series “Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems” publishes the latest developmentsinNetworksandSystems—quickly,informallyandwithhighquality. Original research reported in proceedings and post-proceedings represents the core of LNNS. VolumespublishedinLNNSembraceallaspectsandsubfieldsof,aswellasnew challenges in, Networks and Systems. The series contains proceedings and edited volumes in systems and networks, spanning the areas of Cyber-Physical Systems, Autonomous Systems, Sensor Networks, Control Systems, Energy Systems, Automotive Systems, Biological Systems, Vehicular Networking and Connected Vehicles, Aerospace Systems, Automation, Manufacturing, Smart Grids, Nonlinear Systems, Power Systems, Robotics,SocialSystems,EconomicSystemsandother.Ofparticularvaluetoboth the contributors and the readership are the short publication timeframe and the world-wide distribution and exposure which enable both a wide and rapid dissemination of research output. The seriescovers the theory, applications, and perspectiveson the state ofthe art andfuturedevelopmentsrelevanttosystemsandnetworks,decisionmaking,control, complex processes and related areas, as embedded in the fields of interdisciplinary andappliedsciences,engineering,computerscience,physics,economics,social,and life sciences, as well as the paradigms and methodologies behind them. ** Indexing: The books of this series are submitted to ISI Proceedings, SCOPUS, Google Scholar and Springerlink ** More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/15179 Erik W. Aslaksen The Stability of Society 123 ErikW. Aslaksen Gumbooya Pty Ltd Allambie Heights, Sydney,NSW,Australia ISSN 2367-3370 ISSN 2367-3389 (electronic) Lecture Notesin Networks andSystems ISBN978-3-030-40225-9 ISBN978-3-030-40226-6 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-40226-6 ©TheEditor(s)(ifapplicable)andTheAuthor(s),underexclusivelicensetoSpringerNature SwitzerlandAG2020 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsaresolelyandexclusivelylicensedbythePublisher,whether thewholeorpartofthematerialisconcerned,specificallytherightsoftranslation,reprinting,reuseof illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmissionorinformationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilar ordissimilarmethodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. 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ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland Contents 1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.1 Motivation for This Essay. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.2 A General Concept of Evolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1.3 Assertions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 1.4 Organisation of the Material . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 2 Some Basic Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2.1 Systems and Views. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2.2 Description of Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2.3 Measures of Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 2.4 Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Reference. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 3 The Information-Processing System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 3.1 The System Components. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 3.2 The Individual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 3.3 The Interaction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 3.4 Identity and Belief . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 3.5 The Two Cycles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 3.6 The Individual Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 3.7 Stress and the Development of Settlements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 4 The Collective Intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 4.1 The Meaning of Survival . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 4.2 The Importance of Fluctuations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 4.3 Society’s Belief System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 4.4 The Basic Belief. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 4.5 System Dynamics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 v vi Contents 5 Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 5.1 Technology—And Its Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 5.2 Information Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 6 The Role of Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 6.1 A Brief Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 6.2 Education as a Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 6.2.1 Lifecycle of the Individual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 6.2.2 Inter- and Intra-generational Information Transfer . . . . . . . 85 6.3 Education and the Model of Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 6.4 Education and Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 6.5 Education and Economics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 6.6 The Challenge for Education. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 7 Political and Economic Factors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 7.1 Economic Factors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 7.1.1 Scope of the Considerations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 7.1.2 Sustaining the Individual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 7.1.3 The Interaction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 7.2 Political Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 7.2.1 The Party System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 7.2.2 The Role of Ideology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 8 Stability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 8.1 The Nature of Social Stability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 8.2 Intranational Stability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 8.3 International Stability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 Index .... .... .... .... .... ..... .... .... .... .... .... ..... .... 127 Symbols b Level of stress c Strength of the identity 0 The set of assertions in H H Identity (a subset of memory) j Commonality l Information flow m Strength of an assertion r Predicate in an assertion Q The union of individual 0s r Restraint S Subject in an assertion Sr An assertion with subject S and predicate r s(m) Number of assertions with m arguments u Mental processing capacity w Number of information items in H X(Sr) Set of all arguments in H associated with Sr z Number of assertions in H vii Chapter 1 Introduction Abstract Thecurrentdriftintheinternationalcommunity towards polarisationis themotivationforthisessay,whichbuildsonaviewofsocietypresentedinearlier work and on the idea of the evolution of society as the current stage in a general processofevolution.Anumberofassertionsarepresented,settingthestageforthe subsequentdevelopmentofahigh-levelmodelofsociety. 1.1 Motivation forThisEssay An earlier publication, The Social Bond [1], was concerned with how the interac- tionbetweenthemembersofsocietydrivesitsevolution.Itpresentedsocietyasan information-processing system with individuals as the distributed processors, and proposedahigh-levelmodeloftheinformationprocessingandstoragecapabilities of the individual. The greater part of the book was then dedicated to studying the interactionbetweenindividuals;itsmeasurement,itsfeatures,itsdynamics,andits dependence on technology. Several simple models of the interaction were used as illustrations,andthen,inthelastchapter,someimplicationsofthisviewofsociety’s evolutionforpoliticsandeconomicswerediscussed.Oneoftheseimplications—for the stability of the evolution—was discussed only very briefly, but in view of the risingtensionsbothwithinnationsandontheinternationallevel,andadrifttowards a confrontational behaviour of the currently most powerful nation, it seemed both appropriateandurgenttorevisittheissueofthestabilityoftheevolutionofsociety. Thepresentessaydoesthat,andwhileitrepeatssomeoftheideasandinsightsof The Social Bond for the sake of the reader’s convenience in making it more self- contained, the focus is now firmly on the issue of stability, and all the supporting material—modelsandreferences—ispresentedwiththatinmind. Theissueofstabilityarisesquitenaturallyifweconsidertheevolutionofsoci- etytobethecurrentphaseofageneralprocessofevolutionandinheritingcertain characteristics of that process, as proposed in the following section. The extent to whichyoufindthatviewofevolutionconvincingwillprobablydependonyourback- ground,andthesameistrueofthevariousanalogiesbetweensocietyandsystems withinphysicsandengineeringusedthroughoutthisworkasmeansofexplanation ©TheEditor(s)(ifapplicable)andTheAuthor(s),underexclusivelicensetoSpringer 1 NatureSwitzerlandAG2020 E.W.Aslaksen,TheStabilityofSociety,LectureNotesinNetworksandSystems113, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-40226-6_1 2 1 Introduction andvisualisation.Obviously,theseanalogieshavetobeatahighlevelofabstraction, screeningoutalllowerlevelsofincreasingdetail,andeachanalogyisacompromise betweenexplanatorypowerandcomplexity.Itislessaquestionoftheiraccuracyin anyparticularcase,thanoftherangeofcasesinwhichtheyprovideusefulinsight. It will also become obvious that I am not a sociologist by profession, and that thereforethelocationofthisessayinsocialtheory,andthereferencesandinterfaces totheexistingextensivebodyofworkwillappeardeficienttosociologists.Again,I canonlyhopethatitwillbeuseful,andbeseenasaninvitationtocritiqueandasan itemfordiscussionandfurtherdevelopment. ItiswithgratitudethatIacknowledgethesupportoftheFacultyofEngineering and Information Technology at the University of Sydney in providing access to the University Library; the valuable comments and insights provided by Albrecht Fritzsche from the Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg as part of his review of the draft manuscript; and, as always, the support of the other half of theteam—mywife,Elfi. 1.2 AGeneralConceptofEvolution Viewingevolutionasaparticulartypeoftransformation,aspresentedbelow,isbased onconsideringenergyasanabstractconceptthatappearsintwoforms:freeenergy and bound energy. Both forms are measured in terms of their intensity, or energy density, and because energy is conserved, an increase in one form of energy must resultinacorrespondingdecreaseintheother;itisalwaysaconversionofoneform intotheother.Theessentialdifferencebetweenthetwoformsofenergy,nomatter what their physical representations are in any particular case, is that the balance between free energy and bound energy is a function of the intensity of the free energy,withfreeenergydominatingathighintensities.Thisbehaviourisreflected inmanycircumstancesthatwearefamiliarwithindailylife,wherethefreeenergy is in the form of heat and its characterisation is in terms of temperature, and for thisreasonweshallgeneralisetheconceptoftemperaturetobetheintensityofthe freeenergyinourabstractconceptofenergy.And,finally,itisimportanttorealise that the conversion can go in both directions, so that bound energy created at one temperaturewillbeconvertedbackintofreeenergyifthetemperaturerises,as,for example,inafluctuation. Thepurposeofintroducingthisabstractionofourwell-knownconceptofenergy istoassistusinformingahigh-levelviewofevolutionand,withinevolution,ofthe historyofsociety.Soletusstartatthebeginningofouruniverse—theBigBang— whenahugeamountofenergywithalmostinfiniteintensityappeared,anditwasall in the form of free energy. Being unconstrained, this energy propagated outwards, and as the temperature (i.e., energy density) decreased, the concept of time was created—timeisameasureofchange.Buttherewasnoconceptofspace,untilthe temperaturedecreasedtothepointwheretheconversionoffreeenergyintobound energy became possible. The bound energy first appeared in the form of particles