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The Spectre of Afghanistan: Security in Central Asia PDF

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Th e Spectre of Afghanistan i ii Th e Spectre of Afghanistan Security in Central Asia Kirill Nourzhanov and Amin Saikal iii I.B. TAURIS Bloomsbury Publishing Plc 50 Bedford Square, London, WC1B 3DP, UK 1385 Broadway, New York, NY 10018, USA 29 Earlsfort Terrace, Dublin 2, Ireland BLOOMSBURY, I.B. TAURIS and the I.B. Tauris logo are trademarks of Bloomsbury Publishing Plc First published in Great Britain 2021 Copyright © Kirill Nourzhanov and Amin Saikal, 2021 Kirill Nourzhanov and Amin Saikal have asserted their right under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, to be identifi ed as Author of this work. For legal purposes the Preface on p. vi constitute an extension of this copyright page. Cover design by Holly Bell Cover image © Alev Takil/Unsplash All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the publishers. Bloomsbury Publishing Plc does not have any control over, or responsibility for, any third- party websites referred to or in this book. All internet addresses given in this book were correct at the time of going to press. The author and publisher regret any inconvenience caused if addresses have changed or sites have ceased to exist, but can accept no responsibility for any such changes. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. ISBN: HB: 978-1-7883-1765-8 PB: 978-0-7556-3706-5 ePDF: 978-1-7883-1766-5 eBook: 978-1-7883-1767-2 Typeset by Refi neCatch Limited, Bungay, Suffolk To fi nd out more about our authors and books visit w ww.bloomsbury.com and sign up for our n ewsletters iv Contents Preface vi Glossary of Terms viii Introduction 1 1 Th e Afghanistan Th reat 13 2 Afghanistan and Regional Security: Th e Views from Central Asia 51 3 Th e Central Asian Policy Response to Security Th reats from Afghanistan: Development, Defence and Diplomacy 83 4 Great Powers and the Central Asia–Afghanistan Equation 121 5 Central Asia’s Contribution to Peace in Afghanistan: Mission Impossible or the Dawn of Hope? 151 Conclusion 177 Bibliography 193 Index 231 v Preface Th e Afghanistan confl ict has grown to be the longest in the history of US military interventionism. US involvement in the country began in response to Al Qaeda’s terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001. Since then, the United States, backed by NATO and non-NATO allies, has been struggling to transform Afghanistan into a stable and secure state. Yet, it has achieved little so far in this respect. Th e on- going confl ict has not only infl icted heavy human and material losses on the Afghan people, and on the United States and its allies – far more than was initially anticipated – but has also caused serious security concerns for Afghanistan’s neighbours. Th e confl ict and its consequences have generated a plethora of published work from diverse perspectives. However, few such works have provided an in- depth analytical discussion about the implications of the Afghan turbulence for the Central Asian republics. Indeed, the impact of the confl ict on Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan and their individual and/ or collective responses in dealing with security concerns arising from Afghanistan – and from the involvement of outside powers in the country – have been largely overlooked. Th is book examines the evolution of the Afghanistan confl ict since 2001 and delves into an analysis of the policy behaviour and remedial measures adopted by the fi ve Central Asian republics in coping with the ‘Afghan threat’. Whilst its approach focuses on how discourses of dangers are constructed in the region it does not aim to advance new vistas in Securitisation Th eory or, for that matter, analyse the Afghan situation and Central Asian responses within any particular normative paradigm. Th e volume’s primary focus is on unpacking and explaining the complexity of the Afghan confl ict and the manner in which the Central Asian republics have sought to securitise their positions in relation to the evolving situation in Afghanistan. Th is book follows our previous co- edited volume, Afghanistan and Its Neighbours aft er the NATO Withdrawal , which was published in 2016. It has been in the making for several years and we have sought to ensure that it is as up- to-date as possible. Th e task has nonetheless been complicated by the evolving Afghan situation and shift ing regional circumstances, as well as by US policy vi Preface vii behaviour under President Donald Trump. Th e latter was opposed to US intervention even prior to taking offi ce. He is now very keen to bring it to an end, preferably through a political settlement of the Afghan confl ict. However, his administration’s eff orts have not, to date, paid off . Th e twin goals of an honourable exit for the US and its allies and the establishment of a relatively functioning and sovereign Afghanistan remain elusive. Th e research and writing of this book was made possible through a Discovery Project grant awarded to the authors by the Australian Research Council Discovery Projects funding scheme (project DP130104461). We have had the valuable support of three research assistants: Christian Bleuer, Andrew Feng, Philippa Hetherington and Elisabeth Yarbakhsh. While we are very thankful to all three of them, our gratitude also goes to Dr Yarbakhsh for her excellent job in reviewing and editing the entire manuscript and for taking care of the detailed logistics of the project. Further, we would like to thank the Australian National University, which has been our academic home during the course of this project, and are indebted to the anonymous reviewers of the manuscript and the publishing team at I.B. Tauris/Bloomsbury. Kirill Nourzhanov and Amin Saikal Canberra, May 2020 Glossary of Terms 6+2 the informal coalition of China, Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, plus Russia and the United States, working between 1997 and 2001 towards fi nding a solution for the ‘Afghan problem’. ADB (Asian Development Bank) a regional development bank with headquarters located in Mandaluyong, Metro Manila, Philippines. AKN (Aga Khan Network) also known as the Agha Khan Development Network (AKDN), network of development agencies founded by the Agha Khan. AKT (Afghanistan–Kyrgyzstan–Tajikistan) a three- country counter- narcotics initiative. Al Qaeda (the base) a militant Islamist organisation founded by Osama bin Laden in 1988, initially in the context of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. ANATF (Afghan National Army Trust Fund) a NATO run funding stream to channel international fi nancial support to Afghanistan’s security forces. ANSF (Afghan National Security Forces) also known as the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF); comprised of the armed forces, national and local police and the national directorate of security. Arbaki Afghan term referring to tribal community militia forces. Bay‘a (allegiance) an Arabic religious term referring to an oath of allegiance to a leader. Bonn Agreement UN-brokered talks in Bonn; gave rise to a compact offi cially entitled the ‘Agreement on Provisional Arrangements in Afghanistan Pending the Re- Establishment of Permanent Government Institutions’ (2001). BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) also known as the One Belt One Road (OBOR) or the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB); Chinese Government infrastructure and investment initiative across Africa, Asia and Europe. BSA (Bilateral Security Agreement) a 2014 agreement between Afghanistan and the United States, whereby US troops were to remain in Afghanistan aft er the end of the international combat mission. C5+1 Central Asia plus Afghanistan format; platform for discussing regional concerns, as well as developing joint measures for peace (the Central Asia plus United States grouping is also designated C5+1). CAES (Central Asian Energy System) network comprised of the Soviet- era Central Asian Power System (CAPS) (predominantly hydroelectric) and natural gas pipelines. CAREC (Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation) program established in 1997 by the Asian Development Bank to encourage economic cooperation; comprised of eleven countries of the wider Central Asia region. viii Glossary of Terms ix CASA-1000 (Central Asia–South Asia 1,000 MW) program to allow for the export of excess hydroelectricity from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Pakistan and Afghanistan. CENTCOM (Central Command) also known as United States Central Command (USCENTCOM). CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) regional grouping comprised of the ten former-Soviet states of Eurasia. CLJ (Constitutional Loya Jirga) convention of Afghan delegates meeting in Kabul in December 2003 to debate and decide on a draft constitution. COIN (counter- insurgency) a population- centred military strategy for Afghanistan developed under President Obama. Corridor 5 transit route between Afghanistan on the one hand and China, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan on the other. CPEC (China–Pakistan Economic Corridor) a series of infrastructure projects linking Pakistan and China. CRRFCA (Collective Rapid Reaction Force for Central Asia) armed forces comprising 5,000 servicemen from mobile and light mountain infantry units stationed in Kazakhstan. CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) a military alliance of Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. DABS ( Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat ) Afghan national electricity company Daesh (a l-Dawlah al-Islam ī yah f ī al- ʻ Ir ā q wa- al-Sh ā m ) Arabic acronym for ISIS, usually used as a derogatory term. Dushanbe Four defunct program bringing together Afghanistan, Pakistan, Russia and Tajikistan in support of the Afghanistan government’s eff orts at national reconciliation. EEU (Eurasian Economic Union) a political and economic grouping of Eurasian states, including Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia. ELJ (Emergency Loya Jirga) a convention of Afghan delegates held in Kabul in June 2002 to elect a transitional administration. FSB (Federal Security Service) security agency of the Russian Federation. GBAO (Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast) an autonomous region of eastern Tajikistan. GKNB (State Committee for National Security) national security and intelligence agency in Tajikistan. Haqqani Network Afghanistan- based militia that is associated with the Taliban. Heart of Asia/Istanbul platform to discuss issues impacting Afghanistan and thirteen of its regional counterparts. Hezb- e Islami (the Islamic Party of Afghanistan) Afghan political party and former militia under mujahideen leader, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. IBB (Imam Bukhari Brigade) Sunni Islamist militia comprised primarily of Uzbeks fi ghting in Syria and Afghanistan. IDB (Islamic Development Bank) bank comprised of fi ft y- seven member countries, with headquarters located in Jeddah.

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