The Spectre of Afghanistan: Security in Central Asia

249 Pages·2021·2.203 MB·English

by  Kirill Nourzhanov and Amin Saikal

Th e Spectre of Afghanistan
i
ii
Th e Spectre of Afghanistan
Security in Central Asia
Kirill Nourzhanov and Amin Saikal
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I.B. TAURIS
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Contents
Preface vi
Glossary of Terms viii
Introduction 1
1 Th e Afghanistan Th reat 13
2 Afghanistan and Regional Security: Th e Views from Central Asia 51
3 Th e Central Asian Policy Response to Security Th reats from
Afghanistan: Development, Defence and Diplomacy 83
4 Great Powers and the Central Asia–Afghanistan Equation 121
5 Central Asia’s Contribution to Peace in
Afghanistan: Mission Impossible or the Dawn of Hope? 151
Conclusion 177
Bibliography 193
Index 231
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Preface
Th e Afghanistan confl ict has grown to be the longest in the history of US military
interventionism. US involvement in the country began in response to Al Qaeda’s
terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001. Since then, the United States, backed by
NATO and non-NATO allies, has been struggling to transform Afghanistan into
a stable and secure state. Yet, it has achieved little so far in this respect. Th e on-
going confl ict has not only infl icted heavy human and material losses on the
Afghan people, and on the United States and its allies – far more than was initially
anticipated – but has also caused serious security concerns for Afghanistan’s
neighbours.
Th e confl ict and its consequences have generated a plethora of published
work from diverse perspectives. However, few such works have provided an in-
depth analytical discussion about the implications of the Afghan turbulence for
the Central Asian republics. Indeed, the impact of the confl ict on Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan and their individual and/
or collective responses in dealing with security concerns arising from
Afghanistan – and from the involvement of outside powers in the country – have
been largely overlooked.
Th is book examines the evolution of the Afghanistan confl ict since 2001 and
delves into an analysis of the policy behaviour and remedial measures adopted
by the fi ve Central Asian republics in coping with the ‘Afghan threat’. Whilst its
approach focuses on how discourses of dangers are constructed in the region it
does not aim to advance new vistas in Securitisation Th eory or, for that matter,
analyse the Afghan situation and Central Asian responses within any particular
normative paradigm. Th e volume’s primary focus is on unpacking and explaining
the complexity of the Afghan confl ict and the manner in which the Central
Asian republics have sought to securitise their positions in relation to the
evolving situation in Afghanistan.
Th is book follows our previous co- edited volume, Afghanistan and Its
Neighbours aft er the NATO Withdrawal , which was published in 2016. It has
been in the making for several years and we have sought to ensure that it is as
up- to-date as possible. Th e task has nonetheless been complicated by the evolving
Afghan situation and shift ing regional circumstances, as well as by US policy
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Preface vii
behaviour under President Donald Trump. Th e latter was opposed to US
intervention even prior to taking offi ce. He is now very keen to bring it to an end,
preferably through a political settlement of the Afghan confl ict. However, his
administration’s eff orts have not, to date, paid off . Th e twin goals of an honourable
exit for the US and its allies and the establishment of a relatively functioning and
sovereign Afghanistan remain elusive.
Th e research and writing of this book was made possible through a Discovery
Project grant awarded to the authors by the Australian Research Council
Discovery Projects funding scheme (project DP130104461). We have had the
valuable support of three research assistants: Christian Bleuer, Andrew Feng,
Philippa Hetherington and Elisabeth Yarbakhsh. While we are very thankful to
all three of them, our gratitude also goes to Dr Yarbakhsh for her excellent job in
reviewing and editing the entire manuscript and for taking care of the detailed
logistics of the project. Further, we would like to thank the Australian National
University, which has been our academic home during the course of this project,
and are indebted to the anonymous reviewers of the manuscript and the
publishing team at I.B. Tauris/Bloomsbury.
Kirill Nourzhanov and Amin Saikal
Canberra, May 2020
Glossary of Terms
6+2 the informal coalition of China, Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and
Uzbekistan, plus Russia and the United States, working between 1997 and 2001
towards fi nding a solution for the ‘Afghan problem’.
ADB (Asian Development Bank) a regional development bank with headquarters
located in Mandaluyong, Metro Manila, Philippines.
AKN (Aga Khan Network) also known as the Agha Khan Development Network
(AKDN), network of development agencies founded by the Agha Khan.
AKT (Afghanistan–Kyrgyzstan–Tajikistan) a three- country counter- narcotics initiative.
Al Qaeda (the base) a militant Islamist organisation founded by Osama bin Laden in
1988, initially in the context of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
ANATF (Afghan National Army Trust Fund) a NATO run funding stream to channel
international fi nancial support to Afghanistan’s security forces.
ANSF (Afghan National Security Forces) also known as the Afghan National Defense
and Security Forces (ANDSF); comprised of the armed forces, national and local
police and the national directorate of security.
Arbaki Afghan term referring to tribal community militia forces.
Bay‘a (allegiance) an Arabic religious term referring to an oath of allegiance to a
leader.
Bonn Agreement UN-brokered talks in Bonn; gave rise to a compact offi cially entitled
the ‘Agreement on Provisional Arrangements in Afghanistan Pending the Re-
Establishment of Permanent Government Institutions’ (2001).
BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) also known as the One Belt One Road (OBOR) or the Silk
Road Economic Belt (SREB); Chinese Government infrastructure and investment
initiative across Africa, Asia and Europe.
BSA (Bilateral Security Agreement) a 2014 agreement between Afghanistan and the
United States, whereby US troops were to remain in Afghanistan aft er the end of the
international combat mission.
C5+1 Central Asia plus Afghanistan format; platform for discussing regional concerns, as
well as developing joint measures for peace (the Central Asia plus United States
grouping is also designated C5+1).
CAES (Central Asian Energy System) network comprised of the Soviet- era Central
Asian Power System (CAPS) (predominantly hydroelectric) and natural gas pipelines.
CAREC (Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation) program established in 1997 by
the Asian Development Bank to encourage economic cooperation; comprised of
eleven countries of the wider Central Asia region.
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Glossary of Terms ix
CASA-1000 (Central Asia–South Asia 1,000 MW) program to allow for the export of
excess hydroelectricity from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Pakistan and Afghanistan.
CENTCOM (Central Command) also known as United States Central Command
(USCENTCOM).
CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) regional grouping comprised of the ten
former-Soviet states of Eurasia.
CLJ (Constitutional Loya Jirga) convention of Afghan delegates meeting in Kabul in
December 2003 to debate and decide on a draft constitution.
COIN (counter- insurgency) a population- centred military strategy for Afghanistan
developed under President Obama.
Corridor 5 transit route between Afghanistan on the one hand and China, Pakistan,
Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan on the other.
CPEC (China–Pakistan Economic Corridor) a series of infrastructure projects linking
Pakistan and China.
CRRFCA (Collective Rapid Reaction Force for Central Asia) armed forces comprising
5,000 servicemen from mobile and light mountain infantry units stationed in
Kazakhstan.
CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) a military alliance of Russia, Armenia,
Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
DABS ( Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat ) Afghan national electricity company
Daesh (a l-Dawlah al-Islam ī yah f ī al- ʻ Ir ā q wa- al-Sh ā m ) Arabic acronym for ISIS, usually
used as a derogatory term.
Dushanbe Four defunct program bringing together Afghanistan, Pakistan, Russia and
Tajikistan in support of the Afghanistan government’s eff orts at national reconciliation.
EEU (Eurasian Economic Union) a political and economic grouping of Eurasian states,
including Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia.
ELJ (Emergency Loya Jirga) a convention of Afghan delegates held in Kabul in June 2002
to elect a transitional administration.
FSB (Federal Security Service) security agency of the Russian Federation.
GBAO (Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast) an autonomous region of eastern
Tajikistan.
GKNB (State Committee for National Security) national security and intelligence agency
in Tajikistan.
Haqqani Network Afghanistan- based militia that is associated with the Taliban.
Heart of Asia/Istanbul platform to discuss issues impacting Afghanistan and thirteen of
its regional counterparts.
Hezb- e Islami (the Islamic Party of Afghanistan) Afghan political party and former
militia under mujahideen leader, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.
IBB (Imam Bukhari Brigade) Sunni Islamist militia comprised primarily of Uzbeks
fi ghting in Syria and Afghanistan.
IDB (Islamic Development Bank) bank comprised of fi ft y- seven member countries, with
headquarters located in Jeddah.