The Soviet Union: The Incomplete Superpower

309 Pages·1986·27.835 MB·English

by  Paul Dibb (auth.)

Published by Palg rave Macmillan in association with the International
Institute for Strategic Studies
Studies in International Security
Hedley Bull: THE CONTROL OF THE ARMS RACE
James Cable: GUNBOAT DIPLOMACY, 1919-1979
Donald C. Daniel: ANTI-SUBMARINE WARFARE AND
SUPERPOWER STRATEGIC STABILITY
Paul Dibb: THE SOVIET UNION: The Incomplete Superpower
Lawrence Freedman: THE EVOLUTION OF NUCLEAR
STRATEGY
Gwyn Harries-Jenkins (editor): ARMED FORCES AND THE
WELFARE SOCIETIES: Challenges in the 1980s
Robert Jackson: SOUTH ASIAN CRISIS
J.M. Lee: AFRICAN ARMIES AND CIVIL ORDER
Hanns W. Maull: RAW MATERIALS, ENERGY AND
WESTERN SECURITY
Adam Roberts: NATIONS IN ARMS
Robert Thompson: DEFEATING COMMUNIST INSURGENCY
International Institute for Strategic Studies conference papers
Christoph Bertram (editor):
NEW CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS AND EAST-WEST
SECURITY
PROSPECTS OF SOVIET POWER IN THE 1980s
THE FUTURE OF STRATEGIC DETERRENCE
THIRD-WORLD CONFLICT AND INTERNATIONAL
SECURITY
AMERICA'S SECURITY IN THE 1980s
DEFENCE AND CONSENSUS
Robert O'Neill (editor):
THE CONDUCT OF EAST-WEST RELATIONS IN THE 1980s
NEW TECHNOLOGY AND WESTERN SECURITY POLICY
Fran<;ois de Rose
EUROPEAN SECURITY AND FRANCE
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THE SOVIET UNION
The Incomplete Superpower
Paul Dibb
M
MACMILLAN 1155
© International Institute for Strategie Studies 1986
Softcover reprint ofthe hardcover 1st edition 1986 978-0-333-36281-5
All rights reserved. No reproduetion, eopy or transmission
of this publieation may be made without written permission.
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with the provisions of the Copyright Aet 1956 (as amended).
Any person who does any unauthorised aet in relation to
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civil claims for damages.
First published 1986
Published by
THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD
Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS
and London
Companies and representatives
throughout the world
British Library Cataloguing in Publieation Data
Dibb, Paul
The Soviet Union: the incomplete
superpower.-{studies in international seeurity)
1. Soviet Union-Military Poliey
I. Title 11. International Institute for
Strategie Studies IlI. Series
355'.0332'47 UA770
ISBN 978-1-349-07023-7 ISBN 978-1-349-07021-3 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-07021-3
For Lanochka, and to the memory
of Valentin Dimitrievich Ogareff
Wretched and abundant
Oppressed and powerful,
Weak and mighty,
Mother Russia!
NIKOLAI NEKRASOV
Contents
List of Tables ix
Foreword by Robert O'Neill, Director, IISS xi
Acknowledgements xiv
Glossary xv
Preface xviii
1 Dimensions of Soviet Power 1
1.1 Perceptions and the Soviet State 4
1.2 Measuring Soviet Power 16
1.3 Conclusion 23
PART I THE DOMESTIC CONTEXT
2 The Constraints of Empire 29
2.1 The Concept of Empire 30
2.2 The Fragile Periphery 34
2.3 The Nationality Problem 44
2.4 The Security of Siberia 55
2.5 Conclusion 60
3 Economy in Crisis? 67
3.1 The Economy and Soviet Power 69
3.2 The Performance of the Soviet Economy 71
3.3 The Burden of Defence 80
3.4 Reasons for Sluggish Economic Performance 89
3.5 Conclusion: Economic Collapse or a Viable
Economy? 95
PART II THE INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
4 The USSR's Security Outlook 107
4.1 The Prospect of War 109
4.2 The USSR's Strategic Environment 114
vii
viii Contents
4.3 Strategic Opportunities 127
4.4 Conclusion 134
5 Soviet Military Requirements and Responses 140
5.1 The Growth of Soviet Military Power 142
5.2 How Much is 'Enough'? 147
Nuclear war 149
Conventional war 156
War at sea 167
5.3 The Requirement for Forces Abroad 174
5.4 Victory in War? 175
5.5 Conclusion 178
6 Soviet Military Power and Global Inftuence 187
6.1 The Concept of Military Power and Influence 188
6.2 Soviet Views on Military Power as an Instrument of
Influence 191
6.3 Soviet Global Reach 194
6.4 Soviet Use of Military Power 197
6.5 Prudent and Purposeful Opportunism? 203
6.6 Conclusion 210
7 The USSR's Global Economic Policy 215
7.1 Dimensions of Economic Power 215
7.2 The Significance of International Trade 219
7.3 Economic Aid and Investment 232
7.4 The Merchant Marine and Fishing Fleets 239
7.5 Arms Sales 242
7.6 Conclusion 250
PART III THE FUTURE OF SOVIET POWER
8 The Limits to Soviet Power 259
8.1 Constraints on Soviet Global Predominance 259
8.2 The Expansion and Decline of Soviet Power 263
8.3 Internal Preoccupation or External Adventurism? 267
8.4 How the West Should Respond to Soviet Weaknesses 270
8.5 New Directions for Research and Methodology 275
Author Index 281
Subject Index 284
Tables
1.1 Some comparative measures of national power 20
2.1 Warsaw Pact defence spending, 1982 41
2.2 Ethnic composition of the USSR, 195~2000 48
2.3 Economic structure of Siberia 58
3.1 Soviet economic growth rates, 1951-90 76
3.2 Selected economic indicators for the Soviet economy,
77
196~0
3.3 Rouble estimates of Soviet defence expenditure, 1955-82 82
3.4 Newly produced weapons for Soviet forces, 1977-81 88
5.1 Postulated Soviet nuclear targeting requirements 152
5.2 The Warsaw PactlNATO conventional military balance
in Europe 162
5.3 Soviet Bloc and opposing naval Forces 172
6.1 Soviet coercive political-military operations, 1944-79 201
7.1 The geographic distribution of Soviet foreign trade,
227
195~O
7.2 The global pattern of Soviet economic aid commitments,
1954-81 233
7.3 Major recipients of Soviet arms transfers, 197~O 244
7.4 World supply of arms by the Warsaw Pact and NATO,
1976-80 245
7.5 No. of arms delivered to developing countries, 197~0,
by supplier and major weapon type 246
7.6 USSR - defence production for export, 1977-81 247
ix