The Soviet Economy to the SOVIET TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS: AUTHOR

104 Pages·2002·6.6 MB·English

by  Bergson, Abram

FINAL REPORT TO
NATIONEAULR OCPOEAUNN CRIELSEAFROCRH SOVIET ANDEAST
The Soviet Economy to th e
TITLE:
Year 2000 :
Paper 7 of 1 2
"SOVIET TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS :
"
TRENDS AND PROSPECT S
AUTHOR : Abram Bergson
The President and Fellows of Harvard Colleg e
CONTRACTOR :
Abram Bergson
PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR :
622-2
COUNCIL CONTRACT NUMBER :
DATE : February 2, 198 2
The work leading to this report was supported in whole or in
part from funds provided by the National Council for Sovie t
and East European Resar.ch

THE SOVIET ECONOMY TO THE YEAR 2000
LIST OF PAPERS
Paper Number Author Title
1 Martin Weitzman "Soviet Industrial Production"
2 Gertrude E . Schroeder "Consumption "
3 D. Gale Johnson "Agricultural Organization . and
Management in Soviet Society :
Change and Constancy"
4 Edward Hewett "The Foreign Sector in the
Soviet Economy : Developments
Since 1960, and Possibilities
to the Year 2000 "
5 Robert Campbell "Energy in the USSR to 2000 "
6 Joseph Berliner "Planning and Management "
7 Abram Bergson "Soviet Technological Progress :
Trends and Prospects "
8 Seweryn Bialer "Politics and Priorities in the
Soviet Union : Prospects for
the 1980s "
9 Douglas Diamond, "Agricultural Production "
Lee W . Bettis ,
Robert Ramsson
10 Leslie Dienes "Regional Economic Development "
11 Murray Feshbach "Population and Labor Force "
12 Daniel L. Bond and "The Soviet Economy to the
Herbert Levine Year 2000 : An Overview"

Soviet Technological Progress :
Trends and Prospects
Summary
Abram Bergson
The paper distinguishes between two concepts of technological progress :
technological progress proper (TPP),representing in a restricted way th e
introduction and spread of new technologies enabling the community to in -
crease output at a given resource cost, and technological progres s
extended (TPE) . The latter embraces not only the foregoing causes of a n
increase in output at given resource cost but also others, such as incentiv e
reforms, amelioration of a historically distorted resource allocation ,
weather fluctuations, and so on.
The essay focuses primarily on TPP, but technologica l
progress of either sort should be manifest in corresponding variations
in output per unit of factor inputs, or factor productivity, as such a
coefficient has come to be called . For purposes of quantitative appraisal ,
therefore, I first compile data of a conventional sort on the growth o f
factor productivity. After allowing for changes in factor inputs no t
initially accounted for, I obtained measures of TPE . By adjusting
additionally for the impact of causal aspects other than the introduction
and spread of new technologies, I also derived measures of TPP .
The initial computation of factor productivity is flawed by limi-
tations in both underlying data and methodology, while further adjustments
to derive TPE and then TPP are often conjectural at best . In the upshot ,
however, TPP is found to have generated these annual percentage increase s
in output per unit of factor inputs in material sectors of the Sovie t
economy :1950 60,2 .88 ;1960-70 .98; 1970-75, .16 . Granting all the
limitations of the computations, TPP probably has slowed to a relatively
low tempo over the period studied .

Soviet Technological Progress :
Trends and Prospects
Summary
Abram Bergson
The paper distinguishes between two concepts of technological progress :
technological progress proper (TPP),representing in a restricted way th e
introduction and spread of new technologies enabling the community to in -
crease output at a given resource cost, and technological progres s
extended (TPE) . The latter embraces not only the foregoing causes of an
increase in output at given resource cost but also others, such as incentiv e
reforms, amelioration of a historically distorted resource allocation ,
weather fluctuations, and so on.
The essay focuses primarily on TPP, but technologica l
progress of either sort should be manifest in corresponding variations
in output per unit of factor inputs, or factor productivity, as such a
coefficient has come to be called . For purposes of quantitative appraisal ,
therefore, I first compile data of a conventional sort on the growth of
factor productivity. After allowing for changes in factor inputs no t
initially accounted for, I obtained measures of TPE . By adjusting
additionally for the impact of causal aspects other than the introduction
and spread of new technologies, I also derived measures of TPP .
is
The initial computation of factor productivity flawed by limi-
tations in both underlying data and methodology, while further adjustments
to derive TPE and then TPP are often conjectural at best . In the upshot ,
however, TPP is found to have generated these annual percentage increase s
in output per unit of factor inputs in material sectors of the Sovie t
economy :1950 60,2.88 ;1960-70 .98; 1970-75, .16 . Granting all the
limitations of the computations, TPP probably has slowed to a relatively
low tempo over the period studied .

n
In respect of TPP, the Soviet performance appears to have bee
d
within the range of Western experience, but inferior to that expecte
.
of a Western country at a comparable stage of development
As for the future, the past trends in TPP are seen to reflect ver y
diverse forces, including institutional reforms affecting R and D an d
innovation, "catch up" opportunities, technological transfers, and so on .
We can only speculate as to the sum of these forces in future . A distinct
acceleration is not precluded, but more likely advance will continue a t
a slow pace more or less comparable to that which has prevailed lately .
A negative rate of TPP, although imaginable, is presumably not among the
contingencies to be seriously reckoned with .
Although TPE was derived primarily as an element in the computatio n
of TPP, it has an interest of its own . Given prospective TPP, the
corresponding TPE now follows from a reversal of adjustments such as
I made previously to derive TPP for the past years . In calculating TPP
for 1970-75, however, one of the adjustments made to TPE was an addition
to allow for abnormal weather (Table 4) . In reversing the previous
computation, no corresponding deduction from prospective TPP is now in
order, so far as reference is to TPE in the long run .
By projection of past ..experience on that understanding, TPE might
be expected to exceed TPP by from 0 .4 to 0.5 of a percentage point . A larger
differential than that is possible in future, but that does not seem very likely