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The Sixth Crisis: Iran, Israel, America, and the Rumors of War PDF

222 Pages·2010·0.88 MB·English
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The Sixth Crisis This page intentionally left blank dana h. allin and steven simon The Sixth Crisis Iran, Israel, America and the Rumors of War 1 2010 An International Institute for Strategic Studies book 3 Oxford University Press, Inc., publishes works that further Oxford University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education. Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offi ces in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Copyright © 2010 by Oxford University Press, Inc. Published by Oxford University Press, Inc. 198 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016 www.oup.com Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Allin, Dana H., 1958– The sixth crisis : Iran, Israel, America, and the rumors of war / Dana H. Allin and Steven Simon. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN978–0–19–975449–6 1. Nuclear weapons—Iran. 2. Iran—Military policy. 3. Israel—Military policy. 4. Iran—Foreign relations—United States. 5. United States—Foreign relations—Iran. 6. Iran—Foreign relations—Israel. 7. Israel—Foreign relations—Iran. I. Simon, Steven. II. Title. UA853.I7A452010 355.02'170955—dc22 2010014504 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper For my father, Julius Simon For my daughter, Sophie This page intentionally left blank And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars; See that you are not alarmed; for this must take place, but the end is not yet —Matthew24:7 (RSV) This page intentionally left blank Acknowledgments This book is the product of the authors’ mutual and sep- arate interests and preoccupations going back for years. Convinced that U.S. foreign policy, particularly regard- ing the Middle East, went fundamentally off the rails in the years after September 11,2001, we were both hopeful about the Obama administration’s efforts to get Amer- ica back on track, and apprehensive about its chances of success. The build-up of tensions stemming from Iran’s progress toward a nuclear capability, along with the tragic and dangerous stalemate between Israel and Palestine, seemed to us to call out for a book-length assessment of Obama strategies and Middle East realities. A principal vehicle for our inquiry has been a series of International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) work- shops assessing the Iranian challenge in relation to the wider array of Middle East confl icts and tensions. The proj- ect was supported generously by the Carnegie Corporation

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There have been five central crises in America's post World War II encounter with the Middle East, and the Obama administration now faces a sixth. Iran's progress toward a nuclear weapons capability, and the prospect of Israel launching air strikes to stop it, are ingredients for a conflict that cou
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