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1588-00 FM 10/8/03 2:47 PM Page i The Siberian Curse This page intentionally left blank 1588-00 FM 10/8/03 2:47 PM Page iii S the iberian Curse How Communist Planners Left Russia Out in the Cold Fiona Hill Clifford G. Gaddy brookings institution press Washington,D.C. 1588-00 FM 10/8/03 2:47 PM Page iv Copyright © 2003 the brookings institution 1775 Massachusetts Avenue,N.W.,Washington,D.C.20036 www.brookings.edu All rights reserved Library ofCongress Cataloging-in-Publication data Hill,Fiona. The Siberian curse :how communist planners left Russia out in the cold / Fiona Hill and Clifford Gaddy. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 08157-3644-4 (cloth :alk.paper) ISBN 08157-3645-2 (pbk.: alk.paper) 1.Siberia (Russia)—Economic conditions. 2.Russia (Federation)— Economic conditions. 3.Economic geography. 4.Forced migration— Russia (Federation)—Siberia—History—20th century. 5.Land settlement—Russia (Federation)—Siberia—History—20th century. 6.Industrial location—Russia (Federation)—Siberia. I.Gaddy,Clifford G.II.Title. HC340.12.Z7S53343 2003 330.957—dc22 2003016801 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 The paper used in this publication meets minimum requirements ofthe American National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence ofPaper for Printed Library Materials:ANSI Z39.48-1992. Typeset in Minion Composition by Circle Graphics Columbia,Maryland Printed by R.R.Donnelley Harrisonburg,Virginia 1588-00 FM 10/8/03 2:47 PM Page v Dedicated to the memory of Frederick H.Hodder This page intentionally left blank 1588-00 FM 10/8/03 2:47 PM Page vii Contents FOREWORD ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xiii NOTE ON TRANSLITERATION xix 1 The Great Errors 1 2 Size Matters 7 3 The Cost ofthe Cold 26 4 Geography Is Not Destiny 57 5 Siberia—Plenty ofRoom for Error 72 6 Disconnected Russia 101 7 Taking Stock:How Much Has Changed? 118 8 Can Russia Shrink? 140 9 Russia ofthe Mind 169 10 Tearing Down Potemkin Russia 196 vii 1588-00 FM 10/8/03 2:47 PM Page viii  viii APPENDIXES A Celsius-Fahrenheit Conversions 215 B Deﬁnition ofthe TPC Concept and Sources ofData 217 C The Russian North 221 D An Outline for Further Research 224 E Cities in the Cold 227 NOTES 231 BIBLIOGRAPHY 271 INDEX 293 1588-00 FM 10/8/03 2:47 PM Page ix Foreword T his book takes something everyone knows about Rus- sia—it is very big and a lot of it is very cold—and makes of that commonplace the basis of path-breaking analysis that should be ofconsiderable utility to the people who govern Russia today. Rumination on Russian “reform”has become something of a cottage industry in the United States over the last decade.Few books on the subject get much below the surface to look at the hidden forces—the deep structural dynamics—of what is under way in that vast,complex, and immensely important country.This book by Fiona Hill and Clifford Gaddy,senior fellows at Brookings,does just that.It explains why Russia has had so much difficulty breaking free ofits Soviet past.Bringing together pioneer- ing research in politics and economics,The Siberian Curse poses a provocative question:Can Russia actually achieve the goals it has set for itself,given the persistence of economic habits and structures it inherited from the U.S.S.R.? Fiona and Cliff suggest that even the most comprehen- sive and targeted reforms may be doomed unless there is ix