The Romanian agrometeorological services and products

56 Pages·2016·10.51 MB·English

The Romanian agrometeorological services
and products – current status and challenges
in the context of climate change
Elena MATEESCU
National Meteorological Administration of Romania
WORKSHOP
Agrometeorologists for farmers in hotter, drier, wetter future
9-10 November 2016
Ljubljana, SLOVENIA
OUTLINE
1. Current and future climate changes
2.The National Meteorological Administration – the development
of observation network infrastructure
3. Research project results:
3.1. National drought risk assessment / RO-RISK Project
3.2 Innovative Remote and Ground Sensors, Data and Tools into
a decision support system for agriculture water management /
IRIDA Project
Climate change is likely to shift the patterns of droughts and
possibly increase the frequency and severity of extreme
drought conditions in Romania.
REASON FOR CONCERNS???
CLIMATIC CONDITION IN ROMANIA IN THE CONTEXT OF CC
• In Romania, the mean annual air temperature rose by 0,6°C in the last
100 years. The evolution by decades of the mean multiannual air
temperature over the 1901-2015 period show that the increasing trend
is obvious especially beginning with 1991, 2015 being the warmest
year of the records.
• As regards precipitation, the 1901-2015 period highlighted a general
decreasing trend in the annual precipitation amounts especially in the
last 30 years and a parallel enhance of the precipitation deficit in the
South, South-East and East of the country.
• Since 1901 until now, Romania has seen in every decade one to four
extremely droughty/rainy years, an increasing number of droughts
being more and more apparent especially after 1991.
OBSERVED SHIFTS IN THE COURSE OF THE MEAN ANNUAL AIR TEMPERATURE IN ROMANIA
Mean annual air temperature trend in Romania over 1901-2015 period
2015: +1.96ºC deviation, 1961-1990
12.0
11.5
11.0
10.5
) 10.0
s
u
is 9.5
le
C
9.0
e
d
a 8.5
r
g
( .p 8.0
m
7.5
e
T
7.0
1 4 7 0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 4 7 0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 4 7 0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 4 7 0 3 6 9 2 5
0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 1 1
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2
Anii
1961-1990 / 8.8ºC
1981-2010 / 9.3ºC
+0.5ºC
ROMANIA
SUMMER
The warmest 16 years:
1961-1990: 18.5°C
2015, 2007, 2014, 1994, 2012,
1981-2010: 19.5°C, +1°C
2013, 2009, 2008, 2000, 2002,
2010, 2001, 2011, 2004, 2006,
1. 2012: 21.8°C, +2.4°C
2. 2007: 21.8°C +2.1°C 2003, 2005.
3. 2003 si 2015: 20.8°C, +1.3°C
The warmest years in Romania
The warmest years / 1901-2015
Annual air temperature Deviation
1. 2015 11.6C 1.9600C
2. 2007 11.5C 1.8743C
3. 2014 11.5C 1.8644C
4. 1994 11.1C 1.5415C
5. 2012 11.1C 1.5413C
6. 2013 11.1C 1.5243C
7. 2009 11.1C 1.4874C
8. 2008 11.1C 1.4671C
9. 2000 11.0C 1.3920C
10. 2002 11.0C 1.3528C
The warmest 16 years in the range 2000-2015 period, except 1994: 2015, 2007, 2014,
1994, 2012, 2013, 2009, 2008, 2000, 2002, 2010, 2001, 2011, 2004, 2006, 2003, 2005
44.3C / 24.07.2007 in Calafat – absolute maximum monthly air temperature
Air temperature trend in Romania / 1961-2015
Air temperature
/ Summer
Heat wave
Summer days
(T >25ºC)
max
▲Increase
Heat wave trend in Romania
(2 days consecutive with Tmax ≥37ºC)

▲Increase
Intensity of scorching heat in the summer season
2011 2012 2013
2014 2015 2016
Units of scorching heat (Tmax≥32C, VI-VIII)
1961-1990 13
1971-2000 18
1981-2010 28
Annual rainfall / agricultural region – decreasing tendency
1961-1990 1981-2010
Dobrogea 417.0 mm 412.0 mm
Moldova 576.7 mm 575.9 mm
Muntenia 598.2 mm 575.7 mm
Oltenia 673.4 mm 645.8 mm
Crisana 669.3 mm 668.4 mm
Transilvania 681.5 mm 680.0 mm
Banat 753.2 mm 737.8 mm
Maramures 799.2 mm 829.1 mm
1961-1990 1981-2010
1971-2000
Droughty/rainy years in Romania /1901-2020
XX-TH CENTURY
DECADE
EXTREMELY DROUGHTY YEARS EXTREMELY RAINY YEARS
1901-1910 1907-1908 1910
1911-1920 1917-1918 1911, 1912, 1915, 1919
1921-1930 1923-1924, 1927-1928 1929
1931-1940 1934-1935 1937, 1939, 1940
1941-1950 1945-1946, 1947-1948, 1949-1950 1941, 1944, 1947
1951-1960 1952-1953 1954, 1955, 1957, 1960
1961-1970 1962-1963, 1964-1965 1969, 1970
1971-1980 1973-1974, 1975-1976 1972, 1974, 1975, 1976
1981-1990 1982-1983, 1985-1986, 1987-1988 1981, 1990
1991-2000 1992-1993, 1997-1998, 1999-2000 1991, 1997
XXI-ST CENTURY
2001-2010 2000-2001, 2001-2002, 2002-2003, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010
2006-2007, 2008-2009
2011-2020 2011-2012, 2014-2015,
July-September 2016, …..
Since 1901 until now, Romania has seen in every decade one to four extremely
droughty/rainy years, an increasing number of droughts being more and more
apparent after 1981