The Role of Threat in the Dynamics of the Philippine-United States Alliance

121 Pages·2015·0.35 MB·English

NAVAL
POSTGRADUATE

SCHOOL

MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA

THESIS

THE ROLE OF THREAT IN THE DYNAMICS OF THE
PHILIPPINE-UNITED STATES ALLIANCE

by

Randy M. Pascua

December 2014

Thesis Advisor: Doug Borer
Second Reader: Ian Rice
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
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THE ROLE OF THREAT IN THE DYNAMICS OF THE PHILIPPINE-UNITED
STATES ALLIANCE
6. AUTHOR(S) Randy M. Pascua
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13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words)
Threat serves as an impetus in the foundation, development, revitalization, and waning of the contemporary
Philippine-United States alliance. Using Stephen Walt’s balance of threat theory as the analytical framework, this
study proves that, historically, the dynamics of the Philippine-U.S. alliance revolves around the interaction of threat-
centric issues and the member-state’s response. Threat serves as the prime mover of the alliance; foreign aid,
ideological solidarity, and institutional penetration do not guarantee the alliance stability. They do, however, serve as
critical factors in the alliance management. Shared or unshared existential threats with external overtones have a
greater impact on the alliance. Moreover, internal security threats affect alliance efficiency. A coordinated approach is
needed to confront and master them.

The Philippine Communist Insurgency of the CPP-NPA-NDF, the South China Sea Dispute with China, the
ambiguity of 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty provisions including its executory mechanisms, and U.S. “strategic
ambivalence” in the case of conflict serve as disconnecting factors of the Philippine-U.S. alliance. These factors
created and continue to create friction between the Philippines and the United States. This study recommends that the
allies must align their threat assessments, resolve or manage disconnecting threats, and then address the ambiguity of
the agreement through further research and deeper strategic discourse.

14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF
Philippine-United States alliance, Mutual Defense Treaty of 1951, Mutual Defense Board, Security PAGES
Exchange Board, Visiting Forces Agreement, Armed Forces of the Philippines, security partnership, 121
alliance, Global War on Terror, CPP-NPA-NDF, Philippine Communist Insurgency, EDCA 16. PRICE CODE
17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF
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Approved for public release; distribution unlimited

THE ROLE OF THREAT IN THE DYNAMICS OF THE PHILIPPINE-UNITED
STATES ALLIANCE

Randy M. Pascua
Lieutenant Colonel, Philippine Air Force
B.S., Mariano Marcos State University, 1992

Submitted in partial fulfillment of the
requirements for the degree of

MASTER OF SCIENCE IN DEFENSE ANALYSIS

from the

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL
December 2014

Author: Randy M. Pascua

Approved by: Doug Borer
Thesis Advisor

Ian Rice
Second Reader

John Arquilla, Ph.D.
Chair, Department of Defense Analysis
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ABSTRACT
Threat serves as an impetus in the foundation, development, revitalization, and waning of
the contemporary Philippine-United States alliance. Using Stephen Walt’s balance of
threat theory as the analytical framework, this study proves that, historically, the
dynamics of the Philippine-U.S. alliance revolves around the interaction of threat-centric
issues and the member-state’s response. Threat serves as the prime mover of the alliance;
foreign aid, ideological solidarity, and institutional penetration do not guarantee the
alliance stability. They do, however, serve as critical factors in the alliance management.
Shared or unshared existential threats with external overtones have a greater impact on
the alliance. Moreover, internal security threats affect alliance efficiency. A coordinated
approach is needed to confront and master them.
The Philippine Communist Insurgency of the CPP-NPA-NDF, the South China
Sea Dispute with China, the ambiguity of 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty provisions
including its executory mechanisms, and U.S. “strategic ambivalence” in the case of
conflict serve as disconnecting factors of the Philippine-U.S. alliance. These factors
created and continue to create friction between the Philippines and the United States. This
study recommends that the allies must align their threat assessments, resolve or manage
disconnecting threats, and then address the ambiguity of the agreement through further
research and deeper strategic discourse.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
I.  INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 
A.  STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM .............................................................1 
B.  IMPORTANCE AND PURPOSE ..................................................................4 
C.  MAIN ARGUMENT ........................................................................................5 
D.  THEORETICAL APPROACH OF THE ANALYSIS .................................6 
E.  THESIS METHODOLOGY AND ORGANIZATION ..............................12 
II.  THE FOUNDATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE PHILIPPINE AND
UNITED STATES MILITARY PARTNERSHIP ..................................................15 
A.  THE SPANISH-AMERICAN WAR IN THE PHILIPPINES ...................15 
B.  THE PHILIPPINE-AMERICAN WAR AND THE AMERICAN
COLONIZATION OF THE PHILIPPINES ...............................................19 
C.  THE WORLD WAR II CHALLENGE .......................................................21 
D.  ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION................................................................23 
III.  THE FORMALIZATION AND BREAKDOWN OF THE PHILIPPINE-
UNITED STATES ALLIANCE ...............................................................................29 
A.  THE PHILIPPINE-U.S. ALLIANCE DURING THE COLD WAR ........29 
B.  THE PHILIPPINE-U.S. ALLIANCE BEYOND THE COLD WAR .......37 
C.  REVITALIZING THE PHILIPPINE-U.S. ALLIANCE ...........................40 
D.  ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION................................................................45 
IV.  THE PHILIPPINE-U.S. ALLIANCE: CONTEMPORARY OPPORTUNITY
AND CHALLENGES ................................................................................................51 
A.  SECURITY CHALLENGES ........................................................................51 
1.  The Philippine Front in the Global War on Terrorism..................51 
2.  The China Threat and the SCS Dispute ..........................................55 
3.  The CNN and the Philippine Communist Insurgency ....................66 
B.  THE PHILIPPINE-U.S. ALLIANCE OPPORTUNITY ............................75 
1.  The U.S. Asia-Pacific Pivot ...............................................................75 
C.  ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION................................................................81 
V.  CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION .......................................................85 
A.  THE CHINA THREAT AND THE SCS DISPUTE ...................................88 
B.  THE PHILIPPINE COMMUNIST INSURGENCY ..................................89 
C.  THE MDT AND ITS MECHANISMS .........................................................92 
LIST OF REFERENCES ......................................................................................................95 
INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST .......................................................................................107 

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