The Role of Fertilizer in Sustaining Food Security and Protecting the Environment to 2020 PDF
Preview The Role of Fertilizer in Sustaining Food Security and Protecting the Environment to 2020
H 1 . I The Role of Fertilizer in Sustaining Food Security and Protecting ''Sip the Environment to 2020 Hi BaluL. Bumb CarlosA.Baanante 1 ?-5^T-1 SSliST1 2620 VISION "A2020VisionforFood,Agriculture,andtheEnvironment"isaninitiativeof theInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute(IFPRI)todevelopashared visionandaconsensusforactiononhowtomeetfutureworldfoodneeds whilereducingpovertyandprotectingtheenvironment.Itgrewoutofa concernthattheinternationalcommunityissettingprioritiesforaddressing theseproblemsbasedonincompleteinformation.Throughthe2020Vision initiative,IFPRIisbringingtogetherdivergentschool'softhoughtonthese issues,generatingresearch,andidentifyingrecommendations. Thisdiscussionpaperseriespresentstechnicalresearchresultsthatencom- pass awide range ofsubjects drawnfromresearchonpolicy-relevant aspectsofagriculture,poverty,nutrition,andtheenvironment.Thediscus- sionpaperscontainmaterialthatIFPRIbelievesisofkeyinteresttothose involvedinaddressingemergingThirdWorldfoodanddevelopmentprob- lems.Thesediscussionpapersundergoreviewbuttypicallydonotpresent finalresearchresultsandshouldbeconsideredasworksinprogress. 7 Food,Agriculture,andtheEnvironmentDiscussionPaper1 The Role ofFertilizer in Sustaining Food Security and Protecting the Environment to 2020 BaluL.Bumb CarlosA, Baanante InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute 1200SeventeenthStreet,N.W. Washington,D.C.20036-3006U.S.A. September1996 J 0 Contents Foreword v L Introduction 1 2. TheNeedforFertilizer 2 3. TrendsinFertilizerUse,Production,andTrade 7 4. PoliciestoSustainGrowthinFertilizerUseandSupply 25 5. EnergyImplications 25 6. EnvironmentalConcerns ?. FutureChallenges 44 Appendix: RegionalClassificationofCountries 4£ References Tables 1. Estimatedcostsofenvironmentaldegradationinselectedcountries 4 2. FertilizeruseinAfrica,LatinAmerica,andAsia,1959/60-1994/95 9 3. DistributionofcountriesinSub-SaharanAfricabytheratiooffertilizer aidtofertilizerimports,1985-90 1 4. Worldfertilizerconsumptionbynutrients,1959/60-1994/95 10 5. Ratioofnitrogentophosphateandtopotashinselectedcountriesin Africa,Asia,andLatinAmerica,1994/95 10 6. Relativesharesoffertilizerusebyregionandcrop,1988-91 ]I 7. FertilizerproductioninAfrica,LatinAmerica,andAsia,1959/60- 1994/95 14 8. Fertilizerproductionbynutrients,1959/60-1994/95 15 9. Worldimportsandexportsoffertilizer,1959/60-1994/95 15 10. Netfertilizerimportsbyregion,1959/60-1994/95 16 11. FertilizerdemandprojectionsbyregionfortotalNPK,2020 18 111 12. Fertilizerdemandprojectionsbyregionandnutrient,1990-2020 L8 Li Annualgrowthinfertilizerusebyregion,1960-90and1990-2020 15 14. Globalfertilizerrequirements,2020 15 15. Fertilizersupplypotentialbyregion,2000 21 L6. Fertilizersupply-demandbalancesbyregion,2000and2020 21 12. Naturalgasreservesbyregion,estimatedonJanuary1,1992 22 IS. Phosphaterockreservesinselectedcountries,1990 23 15. Exchangerateandnitrogenpricesinselectedcountries,1985-90 25 211 Producersupportsinagricultureandfertilizeruse 21 2L Fertilizerpricespaidbyfarmers,1991/92 21 22. Energyrequirementsinammoniaproduction 15 21 Energyconsumedinammoniaproductioninselectedcountries 26 24. Energyusedinthefertilizersector,1990and2020 26 25. Nitrogen(N)inputfromanimalmanureandfertilizerinselected countriesinWesternEurope 35 26. Impactofenvironmentalcomplianceoncostoffertilizerproduction, 1588/89 42 22. MaizeproductionandNfertilizeruseintheUnitedStates i5 2S. Regionalclassificationofcountries 48 Figures 1. Cerealproductionindevelopingcountries,1961-91 3 2. Fertilizeruseandcerealproductionindevelopingcountries,1961-93 3 3. Regionalfertilizeruseperhectare,1994/95 5 4. Worldfertilizerusebyeconomicregion,1959/60-1994/95 7 5. Fertilizerusebygeographicregion,1959/60-1994/95 8 6. Worldfertilizerproductionbyeconomicregion,1959/60-1994/95 12 7. Worldfertilizerproductionbygeographicregion,1959/60-1994/95 13 8. Fertilizerimportsandexportsbydevelopingcountries,1959/60-1994/95 16 5, Worldfertilizerprices,1980-95 24 10. Exchangerate,fertilizerprice,andfertilizeruseinGhana,1980-90 28 11. Theeffectofnitrogenapplicationonnitrateleachingandyield 40 iv Foreword Theworld'spopulationisgrowingbyabout90millionayear.Tofeedfuturegenerationsadequately willrequiregainsinoutputthatareonlypossiblewithaplentifulsupplyofplantnutrientstosustain theneededincreasesincropyields.Butinrecentyearsheavyuseoffertilizerhascomeunderattack foritspossiblecontributiontoenvironmentalillsrangingfromnitrateleachingtogreenhousegas emissionstowastefuluseofhydrocarbons.Thereisnodoubtthatmisuseoffertilizer(organicor chemical)cancauseenvironmentaldamage,butastheauthorspointouthere,failuretoreplenish nutrientsinsoils,especiallynutrient-poortropicalsoils,"caninitiateandperpetuateadownward spiralofsoildegradation,increaseddeforestation,anddepletionofthenaturalresourcebase," ultimatelyleadingtoincreasedpoverty,hunger,malnutrition,andenvironmentaldegradation. Inthisdiscussionpaper,partofIFPRI's2020Visioninitiative,BaluBumbandCarlosBaanante oftheInternationalFertilizerDevelopmentCenter(IFDC)reviewpasttrendsinfertilizeruse, estimatefutureneeds,andassesstechnicalandpolicymeasuresfordealingwithenvironmentaland energyconcernsrelatedtofertilizeruse.WeatIFPRIacknowledgewithgratitudeIFDC'ssupport oprfetphaeri2n0g2t0hiVsipsaipoenr.inWiteiabtievleieavnedthtahteiprowliilclyimnagkneerssswtiollcofnitnrdibitustecotnhteenvtasluuasbelfeultiinmemaokfitnhgeiirnsftoarfmfeidn decisionstohelpmeetthechallengeofreducinghungerandpovertyby2020. PerPinstrup-Andersen DirectorGeneral,IFPRI i /. Introduction Inthemid-1960s,whenprojectionsofglobalstar- Moreover,thenaturalsupplyofnutrientsinthesoil vationwerenotuncommon,noonequestioned cannotsustainhigh cropyields;using improved twthhaees—rfooaloend-odfienffteiercgtiirtlailczoeurpn1atirrntiepsor.ofmOtonhteitnhtgee—fccoohnontdorlaporrgyo,idcufacelrttiiotlrniiznie-nr cnTurhtourpsievfnaetrrsiteimtliiuzesesrttuobseeinpscluraepyapssleiaencdriofmpprooyrimtelaednxsttemrroanlnaedlianstoeruasricsteihsna.gt ity seed, water,and fertilizer responsiblefor cropyieldsandsustainingthenaturalresourcebase. mbrainnygindgenasbeloyutpotphuelaGtreedencouRnetvroilesu,tiionncltuhdaitngheIlnpdeida carbIonnaddidoixtiidoen(tCoO2l)a,ndp,lwaanttsern,eesodlaarnraaddeiqautiaotne,saunpd- andChina,achievefoodself-sufficiencyinashort plyofnutrientsforphotosynthesis.Whilesupplies fsepratniliozfer20betcoa2m5eyetahres.taIrngettheofeacrrliyti1c9i9s0msm,ahionwleyvebre,- osofusrocleasrrcaadniatpiroonvainddeCa0n2uanrceonusntlrimaiitneedd,nsuopnpaltyuroalf causeofheavyuseinthedevelopedcountrieswhere plantnutrientstoenhancephotosynthesisandyield itwassuspectedofhavinganadverseimpactonthe growthfornonleguminouscrops.3Toincreasethe environmentthroughnitrateleaching,eutrophica- supplyofnutrients,moreammoniashouldbesyn- tion, greenhousegasemissions,andheavymetal thesizedandmorephosphateandpotashshouldbe uptakesbyplantsandsoils.Consequently,fertilizer mined(Smil1994,273).Contrarytothebeliefof usepersewasmistakenlyidentifiedasanenemyof someanalysts,plantsdonotdiscriminatebetween theenvironment. naturalandmineralorchemicalsourcesofnutri- Likeanyothersourceofplantnutrients,fertil- ents.Ifnotmanagedproperly,nutrientsfromnatu- izercancontributetoenvironmentaldamageunless ralsourcesarenomoreenvironmentallyfriendly managedproperly.2Nonetheless,fertilizerisanim- thanthosefrommanufacturedfertilizer. portantandsometimesindispensablesourceofthe Thispaperanalyzestheneedforfertilizer,dis- nutrientsrequiredforplantgrowthandfoodproduc- cussespastandfuturetrendsinfertilizeruseand tion.Inbothtraditionalandmodernfarmingsys- supply,andidentifiesthepoliciesneededtopro- tems,harvestedcropsremovenutrientsfromthe moteenvironmentallysoundgrowthinfertilizeruse soil.Unlessthesenutrientsarereplenishedinade- andsupply.Thepaperalsoassessesenvironmental dqeuagtreadqeudantthitrioeusg,htnhuetrniaetnutradleprleestoiuornceanbdassoeilmdaeygrba-e iczoenrceursnesaannddseungegregstysitmepclhinciactailonasnrdelpaotleidcyt-oreflerattield- dation,therebyincreasingthelikelihoodofdefores- measuresto safeguard againstpossiblyharmful tation.Becausenaturalprocessescanreplenishonly environmentaleffectsandtooptimizeenergyuse limitedquantitiesofthenutrientsremoved,these efficiency. nutrientsmustbesuppliedthroughexternalsources. d'iirnecthtiaspppalpiecra,tifoenrtoilfizpehrosinpchlautdeesroncikt)roogrenfr(oNm),cphheomsipchaaltiend(uPs2tOrsy),praoncdespsoetsas(hur(eKa,20tr)ipfleertsiulpizeerrpphroosdpuhcattse,demruirvieadtefroofmpomtiansehr,alanrdesootuhrercse)s.(forexample ^idenEthnaevirliesr)no.tnimnenfteratlilriizsekrsbuatssaorceiaotuetdcwoimtehsfoerftitlhiezeargarroeecmoolsotgliycawlhaantdLseoisciinogeecron(o1m9i9c5)cicralclusmstteacnhcneosloigny-wthriacnhscfeenrdtiilnigzerrisskasr.eTahpaptliiesd,t(hseeseeCrhiaspktsearre6nfootr tAhletirhcoaupgahcilteygfuomrebsioclaongifciaxlthneiitrrnoigternofgiexnatdiiorne.ctlyfromtheatmosphere,theyneedadequatesuppliesofphosphorus(P)andpotassium(K)toenhance 1 1 2. TheNeedforFertilizer FertilizerUseandFoodSecurity scopeforexpandingcultivableareaislimitedinmost developingcountries, especially inAsia,Central Worldpopulationincreasedfrom3.0billionin1960 America,andNorthAfrica,futureincreasesincereal to5.3billionin1990andisprojectedtoincreaseto productionwillmainlydependonincreasedcrop 8.5billionby2025(UnitedNations1992).Such yields,orwhatisknownas"agriculturalintensifica- populationgrowthisunprecedentedinhumanhis- tion"(Pinstrup-AndersenandPandya-Lorch1994). tory;theworldaddedmorepeopleduringthis30- Fertilizercontributestoincreasedcropproduc- yearperiodthanitdidduringthefirst60yearsofthe tioninseveralways.First,byreplenishingnutri- twentiethcenturyandthewholeofthenineteenth ents,ithelpsmaintainandenhancesoilfertilityand century,andthistrendisexpectedtocontinue.This therebysustainscropproduction.Second,fertilizer unprecedentedpopulation growthh—as intensified enablesadoptionofhigh-yieldingvarieties(HYVs), pressur—esonthenaturalresourcebase land,water, whichcanincreasecerealyieldsseveralfold.With- andair toproduceadequatefood,fiber,andraw outaplentifulsupplyofnutrientsthroughfertilizer materialstomeetthegrowingdemand. andotherassociatedinputs,HYVscannotproduce During1961-90cerealproductionnearlydou- higheryields.Third,inthenutrient-poorsoilsofthe bled,increasingfrom876millionmetrictonsin196 tropics,fertilizerusecanincreasebothcropyields to1,947millionmetrictonsin1990.4Althoughboth andbiomass(livingmatteraboveandbelowthe thedevelopedandthedevelopingcountriesincreased ground);additionalbiomasscanbeusedtoaugment theircerealproduction,growthrateswerehigherin thesupplyoforganicmatter(livinganddeadmatter thedevelopingcountries,wherecerealproduction inthesoil),whichimprovesmoistureretentionand increasedfrom396milliontonsin1961to1,035mil- nutrientuseefficiencyandtherebycontributesto liontonsin1990.Inthedevelopedcountries,itin- increasedcropyields.Consequently,cerealproduc- creasedfrom481 milliontonsto913milliontons tionandfertilizeruse6arecloselyassociatedinthe duringthesameperiod,anannualcompoundgrowth developingcountries(Figure2).Becausefuturein- rateof3.3percentintheformerand2.2percentinthe creasesincerealproductionareexpectedtocome latter(FAO1993).Tomeettherisingfooddemandin mostlyfromincreasesincropyields(Rosegrant, 2020, cereal productionwill haveto increaseto Agcaoili,andPerez1995;MitchellandIngco1993; 1,260milliontonsinthedevelopedcountriesand FAO1993),fertilizerwillremainanessentialinput 1,806 milliontons inthedevelopingcountries inmeetingthefuturefoodproductionrequirements. (Rosegrant,Agcaoili,andPerez1995).5 Pastgrowthincerealproductionwasbrought aboutbygrowthinbothareacultivatedandcrop FertilizerUseandNatural yields,butincreasesinyieldsplayedadominantrole, ResourceConservation especiallyindevelopingcountrieswhereincreased cerealyieldscontributedmorethan80percenttothe Degradationofthenaturalresourcebaseisamajor growthincerealproduction(Figure1).Becausethe environmentalthreatinmanydevelopingcountries, 4Inthispaper,alltonsaremetrictons. 5Thesedataareforpaddyriceratherthanmilledriceandrefertoeffective"market"demandbasedonincomeandpopulationgrowth.Tomeet nutritionalneeds,theworldwillhavetoproduceanadditional400milliontonsofgrains(Hazell1994). 6Inthispaper,allfertilizerquantitiesareexpressedinnutrienttonsunlessotherwiseindicated.
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