The Role of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Information in Personal Travel Choices

213 Pages·2014·3.36 MB·English

The Role of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Information in
Personal Travel Choices

William Richard Brazil

A dissertation submitted to the University of Dublin for the partial fulfilment of the
requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy

December 2014

Department of Civil, Structural & Environmental Engineering
Trinity College Dublin
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DECLARATION

I declare that this thesis has not been submitted as an exercise for a degree at this or any other
university and it is entirely my own work.

I agree to deposit this thesis in the University’s open access institutional repository or allow the
library to do so on my behalf, subject to Irish Copyright Legislation and Trinity College Library
conditions of use and acknowledgement.

________________________
William Richard Brazil
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SUMMARY
This thesis presents the results of an examination of the role of carbon dioxide emissions
information in the personal transport sector. With the widespread acceptance that human
transport activities are contributing to the emissions of greenhouse gases, there appears to be an
emerging movement to provide individuals with adequate information to allow them to make
sustainable transport choices. While public and private sector organisations are providing
emissions estimates to individuals, very little research currently exists examining the impact of
such information, and the role that it can play in shaping opinions and transport behaviours.
This thesis specifically focuses on the provision carbon dioxide emissions information via
digital platforms such as online journey planners and transport related smartphone applications.
This thesis presents a multi-element research approach examining individuals’ need for such
information, their ability to interact with and understand emissions estimates, and its impact
upon their awareness, attitudes, and behaviours.
The first part of this thesis assesses current approaches being taken within the transport sector to
provide individuals with emissions information and outlines the research opportunities that this
emerging field presents. This element of research highlights and categorises the numerous
different approaches currently being taken by numerous organisations to provide such
information.
This research also provides an examination of methods of framing carbon dioxide emissions
information in such a manner that it is more easily understood by individuals. These results
appear to indicate the individuals have a varying range of preferences, in terms of how they
understand emissions information.
This thesis presents the results of a stated preference experiment designed to investigate the
potential role of emissions information in terms of influencing individuals’ mode choices. This
research was conducted via an online questionnaire, and indicates that decreases in the
emissions arising from public transport modes leads to an increase in the attractiveness of these
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modes. This in turn suggests that the provision of emissions information may have a role to play
in promoting sustainable transport. This analysis also highlights the potential role that an
examination of respondent information assessment behaviour can play in terms of improving
multinomial logit model performance.
The final element of the research presented in this thesis concerns the assessment of the
outcomes of a field trial as designed to examine the impact of using an environmentally themed
transport application. The results of this trial suggest that while individuals find carbon
emissions information to be both interesting and informative, in terms of its ability to increase
their existing knowledge, this information did not appear to have a notable impact upon their
transport choices.
Overall the results of this research appear to suggest that there is a need for emissions
information relating to personal transport, in terms of educating individuals to the consequences
of their actions, and a general receptiveness towards such information. While the provision of
emissions information as a standalone intervention may not be viewed as an effective driver of
behaviour change, this information does appear to have a role to play in terms of increasing
awareness and personal reasonability within the general public.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
First of all I would like to thank my supervisor Dr Brian Caulfield for all his encouragement
and support during the course of my research.
I would also like to say thank you to all my colleagues, particularly my fellow PhD students for
their advice, help, and understanding throughout the course of my studies.
I would like to thank the European Commission for their funding as part of the PEACOX
project under the Seventh Framework Programme.
Finally I would to thank my parents for all their support throughout not just the period of these
studies, but also through my entire educational life. Without their advice, backing, and
unconditional love I know I wouldn’t have reached this point.
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CONTENTS
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................. 1
1.1 Climate Change and Transport Emissions .................................................................... 1
1.1.1 The Role of CO2 and Transport .................................................................................... 1
1.1.2 Governmental Targets .................................................................................................. 2
1.1.3 Potential Role of Emissions Information in the Personal Transport Sector ................. 3
1.2 PEACOX Project .......................................................................................................... 4
1.3 Research Objectives ............................................................................................................ 5
1.4 Overarching Methodology .................................................................................................. 6
1.4.1 Overview of Dissertation ............................................................................................. 7
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE AND BACKGROUND ................................................................ 9
2.1: Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 9
2.2 Barriers to Sustainable Behavioural Change ....................................................................... 9
2.2.1 The Ability to Relate to Climate Change ..................................................................... 9
2.2.2 Transport Specific Barriers ........................................................................................ 16
2.2.3 Lack of Information ................................................................................................... 19
2.2.4 Nudging ...................................................................................................................... 20
2.2.5 Impact of Emissions Information ............................................................................... 20
2.2.6 Impact of Non-Emissions Information ....................................................................... 21
2.2.7 Section Conclusions ................................................................................................... 22
2.3 Provision of Emissions Information .................................................................................. 22
2.3.1 Sources of Information ............................................................................................... 22
2.3.2 Information Provision ................................................................................................ 31
2.3.3 Emissions Information in Other Sectors .................................................................... 37
2.3.4. Section Conclusions .................................................................................................. 40
2.4 Non-Emissions Information .............................................................................................. 41
2.4.1 Information provision in the transport sector ............................................................. 41
2.4.2 Transport Information in Dublin ................................................................................ 41
2.4.3 Other Forms of Transport Information ....................................................................... 49
2.4.4 The Impact of Transport Information Individuals’ Behaviours ................................. 49
2.4.5 Section Conclusion..................................................................................................... 52
2.5 Gap in Literature/ Research Opportunities........................................................................ 52
2.6 Chapter Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 53
CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGIES ............................................ 54
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3.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 54
3.2 Overarching Methodology ................................................................................................ 54
3.3 Pre-Trial Surveys (Chapter 4) ........................................................................................... 56
3.3.1 Survey 1 (March, 2012) ............................................................................................. 56
3.1.2 Survey 2 (November/December 2012) ...................................................................... 57
3.4 Discrete Choice Modelling and Stated Preference Methods (Chapter 5) ......................... 58
3.5 Application Field Trial (Chapter 6) ................................................................................... 58
3.5.1 Data Collection........................................................................................................... 59
3.6 Interrelationship of Experimental Methods....................................................................... 59
CHAPTER 4: EXPLORATORY SURVEYS ............................................................................. 61
4.1: Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 61
4.2: User Interaction with Journey Planning Applications and Websites ............................... 61
4.2.1 Background ................................................................................................................ 61
4.2.2 Sources of Transport Information .............................................................................. 62
4.2.3 Smartphone Ownership .............................................................................................. 65
4.2.4 Application Use .......................................................................................................... 66
4.2.5 Important Application Features .................................................................................. 67
Section Summary and Conclusions ..................................................................................... 69
Section 4.3 Presentation of Emissions Information for Journey Planning .............................. 70
4.3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 70
4.3.2 Current Approaches in Carbon Calculators and Journey Planners ............................ 70
4.3.3 Methodology .............................................................................................................. 72
4.3.4 Section Results ........................................................................................................... 76
4.3.5 Respondents Comments ............................................................................................. 79
4.3.6 Section Summary and Conclusion ............................................................................. 82
Section 4.4: Assessment of Existing Emissions Knowledge .................................................. 83
4.4.1 Current Levels Emissions Knowledge ....................................................................... 83
4.4.2 Methodology .............................................................................................................. 84
4.4.3 Knowledge Assessment Analysis Results .................................................................. 86
4.4.5 Section Summary and Conclusions ............................................................................ 91
4.6: Chapter Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 92
CHAPTER 5: STATED PREFERENCE EXPERIMENTS ........................................................ 94
Section 5.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 94
5.2 Discrete Choice Modelling ............................................................................................... 94
5.2.1 Random Utility Theory .............................................................................................. 95
5.2.2 Multinomial Logit Model ........................................................................................... 96
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5.2.3 Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discrete Choice Models .................................. 97
5.2.4 IIA Property ............................................................................................................... 98
5.2.5 Multinomial Logit Model Outputs ............................................................................. 99
5.2.6 Data Collection......................................................................................................... 100
5.2.7 Stated Preference Methods and Transport and Emissions Information ................... 102
5.2.8 Suitability of Modelling Approach .......................................................................... 102
5.3 Stated Preference Experiment ......................................................................................... 104
5.3.1 Survey Methodology ................................................................................................ 104
5.3.2 Experimental Design ................................................................................................ 105
5.3.3 Model Results........................................................................................................... 110
5.3.4 Sample Comments ................................................................................................... 118
5.3.5 Interpretation of Results ........................................................................................... 119
5.3.6 Information Assessment ........................................................................................... 120
5.3.7 Potential Weaknesses ............................................................................................... 121
5.4 Chapter Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 121
CHAPTER 6: APPLICATION FIELD TRIALS ...................................................................... 123
6.1: Introduction .................................................................................................................... 123
6.2 The PEACOX Application .............................................................................................. 123
6.2.1 Recruitment and Sample Size .................................................................................. 125
Section 6.3: Pre-Trial User Interaction Experiment .............................................................. 126
6.3.1 User Interaction Experiment Results........................................................................ 128
6.4 Application Trends .......................................................................................................... 132
6.4.1 Application Use Patterns .......................................................................................... 132
6.5: Discrete Choice Modelling of Trial Data ....................................................................... 137
6.5.1 Data Preparation and Model Construction ............................................................... 137
6.5.2 Data Simplification .................................................................................................. 138
6.5.3 Initial Model ............................................................................................................. 138
6.5.4 Expanded Model ...................................................................................................... 140
6.5.5 Choice Paradigm Assumptions ................................................................................ 142
6.5.6 After-Trip Logging................................................................................................... 143
6.5.7 Selective Logging..................................................................................................... 143
6.6 Post Trial Survey ............................................................................................................. 143
6.7: Chapter Conclusions ...................................................................................................... 148
CHAPTER 7: DISCUSSION, CRITICAL REVIEW, AND CONCLUSION .......................... 150
7.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 150
7.2 Summary of Research ..................................................................................................... 150
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7.2 Impact of Research and Contribution to Knowledge ...................................................... 152
7.3 Critical Assessment of Research ..................................................................................... 152
7.3.1 Analysis of Current Methods of Emissions Information Provision ......................... 153
7.3.2 Framing and Contextualising of Emissions Information ......................................... 153
7.3.3 Analysis of Transport Emissions Knowledge .......................................................... 153
7.3.4 Stated Preference Experiment .................................................................................. 154
7.3.5 PEACOX Application Field Trial Design ................................................................ 154
7.4 Recommendations for Further Research ......................................................................... 155
7.4.1 Longer Term Study Period ....................................................................................... 155
7.4.2 Emissions Information at Life Stages ...................................................................... 155
7.4.3 Emissions Information in Other Sectors .................................................................. 156
7.4.4 Spill Over ................................................................................................................. 156
7.5 Recommendations for Industry ....................................................................................... 156
7.5.1 Public Transport Operators ...................................................................................... 157
7.5.2 Application Developers ............................................................................................ 157
7.6 Overall Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 157
REFEREENCES ....................................................................................................................... 158
PUBLICATIONS ...................................................................................................................... 176

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1.1 Project Partners ............................................................................................................. 4
Table 2.1 Journey Planners and Emissions Information ............................................................. 29
Table 2.2 Assessment of Emissions Information ........................................................................ 33
Table 2.3 Sources of Transport Information in the GDA ........................................................... 46
Table 3.1 Comparison of Experimental Methods ....................................................................... 60
Table 4.1 User Interaction Sample Gender ................................................................................. 62
Table 4.2 Sources of Transport Information ............................................................................... 63
Table 4.3 Significance of Demographic Variables ..................................................................... 64
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Table 4.4 Sources of Transport Information vs. Age .................................................................. 65
Table 4.5 Smartphone Ownerships vs. Age ................................................................................ 65
Table 4.6 Application Usage vs. Age (Smartphone Owners) ..................................................... 66
Table 4.7 Application Use Metric vs. Trip Type ........................................................................ 67
Table 4.8 Application Feature vs. Trip Familiarity ..................................................................... 69
Table 4.9 Emissions Presentation Sample Gender ...................................................................... 73
Table 4.10: Assessment of Approaches ...................................................................................... 77
Table 4.11 Cross-tabulations of Understanding and Influence of Approaches ........................... 78
Table 4.12 Ease of Understanding and Gender ........................................................................... 78
Table 4.13 Selected Respondent Comments: Basic Numerical Approach ................................. 80
Table 4.14 Selected Respondent Comments: Lightbulb Approach ............................................ 80
Table 4.15 Selected Respondent Comments: Carbon Budget ..................................................... 81
Table 4.16 Selected Respondent Comments: Carbon Budget ..................................................... 82
Table 4.17 User Interaction Sample Gender ............................................................................... 84
Table 4.18 Emissions Estimates .................................................................................................. 87
Table 4.19 Assignment of Ordinal Values .................................................................................. 88
Table 4.20 Comparison with Small Car ...................................................................................... 89
Table 4.21 Comparison with Large Car ...................................................................................... 89
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