Table Of Content

THE RISE AND FALL OF PEACE ON EARTH Also by Michael Mandelbaum Mission Failure: America and the World in the Post- Cold War Era (2016) The Road to Global Prosperity (2014) That Used to Be Us: How America Fell Behind in the World It Invented and How We Can Come Back (with Thomas L. Friedman) (2011) The Frugal Superpower: America’s Global Leadership in a Cash- Strapped World (2010) Democracy’s Good Name: The Rise and Risks of the World’s Most Popular Form of Government (2007) The Case for Goliath: How America Acts as the World’s Government in the Twenty- first Century (2006) The Meaning of Sports: Why Americans Watch Baseball, Football, and Basketball and What They See When They Do (2004) The Ideas That Conquered the World: Peace, Democracy, and Free Markets in the Twenty- First Century (2002) The Dawn of Peace in Europe (1996) The Global Rivals (with Seweryn Bialer) (1988) The Fate of Nations: The Search for National Security in the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries (1988) Reagan and Gorbachev (with Strobe Talbott) (1987) The Nuclear Future (1983) The Nuclear Revolution: International Politics Before and After Hiroshima (1981) The Nuclear Question: The United States and Nuclear Weapons, 1946- 1976 (1979) T R HE ISE A ND F P A LL OF E ACE E ON A RTH MICHAEL MANDELBAUM 1 1 Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries. Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America. © Oxford University Press 2019 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization. Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above. You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Mandelbaum, Michael, author. Title: The rise and fall of peace on Earth / by Michael Mandelbaum. Description: New York, NY : Oxford University Press, [2019] Identifiers: LCCN 2018027496 | ISBN 9780190935931 (hc : alk. paper) Subjects: LCSH: Peace—History—20th century. | Peace—History—21st century. | World politics—20th century. | World politics—21st century. Classification: LCC JZ5554 .M36 2019 | DDC 303.6/6—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018027496 1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2 Printed by Sheridan Books, Inc., United States of America To Barbi Weinberg and in memory of Larry Weinberg, in appreciation for their many contributions to their community, their country, and the world. War appears to be as old as mankind, but peace is a modern invention. — SIR HENRY MAINE (1822– 1888) Be it thy course to busy giddy minds With foreign quarrels. That action, hence borne out, May waste the memory of the former days. — WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE, Henry IV, Part Two Contents Acknowledgments ix Introduction xi 1. Europe: The Lost Peace 1 Peace 1 The Blunder 9 From Yeltsin to Putin 15 The End of Peace 23 The New/ Old Europe 35 2. East Asia: The Commercial Peace 45 Peace 45 China’s Singularity 50 Chinese Revisionism 63 The Korean Conundrum 76 The New/ Old Asia 85 3. The Middle East: The Hegemonic Truce 96 Truce 96 Iran 103 The Bomb 113 vii viii Contents The Arab Spring 120 The New/ Old Middle East 126 4. Peace Regained? 133 Accident or Precedent? 133 Perpetual Peace? 139 Universal Democracy? 147 Notes 157 Index 205 ACknowledgments i am grateful to Ray Takeyh for a very useful discussion of Iran, to Thomas L. Friedman, James R. Kurth, and George Walden for stim- ulating conversations about the issues with which this book deals, to Charles Davidson, Adam Garfinkle, and Damir Marusic for the oppor- tunity to explore some of the ideas that follow in The American Interest, to David McBride for welcoming the book to Oxford University Press, to Starr Lee for research assistance, and above all, and as always, to Anne Mandelbaum, for peerless editing, unwavering support, and endless love. ix