The Reasoning Voter: Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns

335 Pages·1994·22.297 MB·English

by  Samuel L. Popkin

.' The Reasoning Vofer I~

I.
.' The Reasoning Vofer
Communication and Persuasion
in Presidential Campaigns
Samuel L. Popkin
Second Edition
The University of Chicago Press
Chicago and London
The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637
The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London
© 1991. 1994 by The University of Chicago
All rights reserved. Originally published 1991
Paperback edition 1994
Printed in the United States ofA merica
1211100908 987
ISBN 0-226-67545-9
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Popkin, Samuel L.
The reasoning voter: communication and persuasion in
presidential campaigns I Samuel L. Popkin. - 2nd ed.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Presidents-United States-Election. 2. Voting-United
States. 3. Electioneering-United States. I. Title.
JK524.P64 1994
324.973-dc20 93-43845
CIP
@ The paper used in this publication meets the minimum
requirements of the American National Standard for Information
Sdences-Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials,
ANSI Z39.48-1992.
To Ithiel de Sola Pool
and Jean MacKenzie Pool
". .. to learn, to teach, to do."

Contents
Acknowledgments ix
Prologue 1
1 The Reasoning Voter 7
2 Acquiring Data: The Process of Becoming Informed 22
3 Going without Data: Information Shortcuts 44
4 Going beyond the Data: Evidence and Inference in Voting 72
5 Attributable Benefits and Political Symbols 96
6 Expectations and Reassessments: Surges and Declines
in Presidential Primaries 115
7 The Democratic Primaries of 1976: Watergate and the Rise
of Jimmy Carter 149
8 The Republican Primaries of 1980: George Bush, Ronald Reagan,
and the Legacy of'76 167
vii
viii Contents
9 The Fight to Redirect the Democratic Coalition in 1984 184
10 Conclusion 212
11 The Election of 1992 237
Notes 265
Bibliography 293
Index 313
Acknowledgmenfs
This book reflects my experiences doing survey research about presidential
campaigns since my undergraduate days at MIT, when I began to work
with Ithiel de Sola Pool. He introduced me to campaign research and to the
field of communications research. More important, he taught me that
scholarship knows no boundaries, that economics, sociology, psychology,
and psychoanalysis all have important insights for the study of political
communications. Above all, he and Jean were my family away from home
and role models for what marriage, family, and career together could be.
Ithiel introduced me to Robert Abelson, who has been a source of stim
ulation for three decades. In every campaign in which I have participated
he has been a sounding board and a source of insight. Writing question
naires and devising campaign strategy with Bob provided me a master class
in modem psychology.
John Gorman and Pat Caddell made it possible for me to be both an aca
demic and a campaign researcher and strategist. As their utility infielder
and survey allalyst, I was able to be part of three presidential campaigns.
John has also been a demanding critic of my attempts to be rigorous and
readable.
From 1983 until 1990 I served as a consultant to Warren Mitofsky of CBS
News. While working on current elections Warren encouraged me to ex
plore the CBS News/New York Times survey archive, and without that
encouragement this would have been a lesser book. I hope that my book,
by introducing other scholars to this rich and valuable data source, in
creases appreciation for the work he did and the research unit he created.
At CBS, Kathy Frankovic was a fount of empirical knowledge about past
elections and a valued colleague. Warren and Kathy made it possible for
me to keep my hand in presidential campaigns while maintaining the sem
blance of family life that is otherwise impossible with children and two
careers.
ix