The Real Politics of the Horn of Africa: Money, War and the Business of Power PDF
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Table of Contents Dedication Title page Copyright page Figures and Maps Figures Maps Acronyms Preface and Acknowledgements 1: Introduction The View from the Edge A Vignette: The Darfur Negotiations Vernacular Politics in Sudan From Political Vernacular to Political Theory Outline of the Book Notes 2: The Political Marketplace ‘No Condition is Permanent’ The Political Marketplace and Real Politics Political Entrepreneurs and Business Managers Specifying the Variables of ‘Real Politics’ State-Building versus Political-Business Management A Story of Men Notes 3: The Horn of Africa Visualizing the Horn of Africa A Laboratory of Conflicts The Contested Political Geography of the Horn When Things Fell Apart Africa's Subcontinental War The New Rentierism and the African Security Architecture Notes 4: Darfur A Near-Perfect Political Marketplace Closed Districts and the Thirty Years' War The Auction of Loyalties Regulating the Market? The Functions and Limits of Violence Implications: the Interwar Notes 5: Sudan The Unexpected Survivor The Financial Skeleton of Sudanese Politics Nimeiri's Chameleon Dictatorship 1969–85 Sadiq al Mahdi's Impossible Balancing Act The 1990s: Survival Against the Odds The Oil Boom and Rentier Peace Post-Separation Sudan Implications Notes 6: South Sudan The Price of Independence Garang's Challenges Salva's Business Plan The Skeleton of the South Sudanese State New War, Old Peace An Alternative Ethic? Notes 7: Somalia Mogadishu 1992 The Somali Nation and State Siyad Barre's Security Rentier Kleptocracy Commerce without a State Political Rentierism without a State The Communications Revolution Islamist Challenges Globalized Somalia Piracy and Counter-Piracy Conclusion Notes 8: Somaliland Somaliland Exceptionalism Convening Somaliland Political Finance How Was Somaliland Secured? Implications Notes 9: Eritrea Fascism and Maoism Militarized Developmental State- and Nation-Building Funding a Garrison State, 2001–2011 The Seeds of a Rentier Political Marketplace Implications Notes 10: Ethiopia The Ethiopian Configuration Meles Zenawi in Government: Theory and Practice Is State Building (Still) Possible? Notes 11: Transnational Patronage and Dollarization The ‘Non-Integrated Gap’ The Commodities Boom Illicit Finance Aid Rents and Global Governance Counter-Terrorism Rent Criminal and Law-Enforcement Rents The ‘New Peacekeeping’ Peacemaking in the Political Marketplace Globalizing Patronage Notes 12: Towards a More Perfect Marketplace? Political Circuitry and the Public Sphere The Imperial Model: Hub and Spokes The Politics of Intellectual Life Transnational Intellectual Careers Convening and Communication Transformed Challenges to the Political Marketplace Towards a More Perfect Political Marketplace Concluding Thoughts Notes Bibliography Index End User License Agreement List of Illustrations Figure 2.1 Michael Porter's ‘five forces’ of business Figure 2.2 The ‘five forces’ of political business Figure 2.3 The ‘stationary bandit’ Figure 2.4 The militarized rentier political marketplace Map 3.1 The Horn of Africa, 1980 Map 3.2 The Horn of Africa, 2011 Map 5.1 Sudan and South Sudan Figure 5.1 Sudanese government finances and peace agreements, 1965–84 Source: World Bank datasets, showing general government final consumption expenditure, net official development assistance and net flows on total debt stock in current US dollars (millions). Note that the famine-relief programme mounted by USAID and the World Food Programme in 1984–5 has been excluded. Figure 5.2 Sudanese government finances and peace agreements, 1997–2012 Source: IMF data, in millions of Sudanese pounds. Figure 6.1 South Sudan's military payroll Sources: Small Arms Survey and SPLA estimates. Figure 6.2 South Sudan's expenditures driven by revenues, not approved budget Source: World Bank 2013: 4. Amounts in billions of Sudanese/South Sudanese pounds. Figure 6.3 South Sudan's oil production Sources: 1999–2012: Republic of South Sudan, Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, April 2013; 2012–13: estimates from press reports. Amounts in thousand barrels per day. Figure 9.1 Ethiopian and Eritrean military expenditure (millions of dollar) Source: SIPRI. Amounts in US dollars. Figure 9.2 Ethiopian and Eritrean military expenditure (% of GDP) Source: SIPRI. Dedication In Memoriam: Meles Zenawi 1955–2012 and for Hiroe, Hannah and Adan TheR eaPlo litoifc st he Hor11 Aforfi ca MoneyW,a ra ndt heB usineosfPs o -vver Alex de Waal polity Copyright page Copyright © Alex de Waal 2015 The right of Alex de Waal to be identified as Author of this Work has been asserted in accordance with the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published in 2015 by Polity Press Polity Press 65 Bridge Street Cambridge CB2 1UR, UK Polity Press 350 Main Street Malden, MA 02148, USA All rights reserved. Except for the quotation of short passages for the purpose of criticism and review, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. ISBN-13: 978-0-7456-9557-0 ISBN-13: 978-0-7456-9558-7(pb) A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data De Waal, Alex. The real politics of the Horn of Africa : money, war and the business of power / Alex de Waal. pages cm ISBN 978-0-7456-9557-0 (hardback) – ISBN 978-0-7456-9558-7 (pbk.) 1. Political culture–Horn of Africa. 2. Political violence–Horn of Africa. 3. Political corruption–Horn of Africa. 4. Horn of Africa–Politics and government. I. Title. DT367.8.D4 2015 306.20963–dc23 2015004483 Typeset in 10.5/12 12 Sabon by Toppanleefung Best-set, Hong Kong Printed and bound in Great Britain by Clays, Ltd, St Ives PLC The publisher has used its best endeavours to ensure that the URLs for external websites referred to in this book are correct and active at the time of going to press. However, the publisher has no responsibility for the websites and can make no guarantee that a site will remain live or that the content is or will remain appropriate. Every effort has been made to trace all copyright holders, but if any have been inadvertently overlooked the publisher will be pleased to include any necessary credits in any subsequent reprint or edition. For further information on Polity, visit our website: politybooks.com Figures and Maps Figures 2.1 Michael Porter's ‘five forces’ of business 2.2 The ‘five forces’ of political business 2.3 The ‘stationary bandit’ 2.4 The militarized rentier political marketplace 5.1 Sudanese government finances and peace agreements, 1965–84 5.2 Sudanese government finances and peace agreements, 1997–2012 6.1 South Sudan's military payroll 6.2 South Sudan's expenditures driven by revenues, not approved budget 6.3 South Sudan's oil production 9.1 Ethiopian and Eritrean military expenditure (dollar amounts) 9.2 Ethiopian and Eritrean military expenditure (% of GDP) Maps 3.1 The Horn of Africa, 1980 3.2 The Horn of Africa, 2011 5.1 Sudan and South Sudan
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