The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in Americans' Policy Preferences (American Politics and Political Economy Series)

507 Pages·1992·19.18 MB·English

by  Benjamin I. Page

0THE RATIONAL PUBLIC
AMERICAN POLITICS AND POLITICAL ECONOMY SERIES
Edited byBenjamin I. Page
Benjamin I. Page and
Robert Y. Shapiro
[2JTHE RATIONAL PUBLIC
Fifty Years of Trends in
Americans' Policy Preferences
The University ofChicago Press
Chicago andLondon
The University ofChicago Pressgratefully acknowledges theassistance oftheGordon Scott
Fulcher Fund forResearch onDecision Making, Northwestern University, inthepublication
ofthisbook.
TheUniversity ofChicago Press, Chicago 60637
TheUniversity ofChicago Press,Ltd.,London
© 1992byThe UniversityofChicago
All rightsreserved.Published 1992
Printed inthe UnitedStatesofAmerica
08070605040302010099 456789
Library ofCongress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Page,Benjamin I.
Therational public :fiftyyearsoftrendsinAmericans' policy
preferences IBenjamin I.Page and RobertY.Shapiro
p. em. - (American politics andpolitical economy series)
Includes bibliographical references andindex.
ISBN0-226-64478-2 (pbk.)
1. Public opinion-United States-History-2Oth century.
I. Shapiro, RobertY.,1953- II. Title. III. Series:American
politics and political economy.
HN90.P8P34 1992
303.3'8'0973-dc20 91-15590
CIP
e
Thepaper usedinthispublication meets
theminimum requirementsoftheAmerican National
Standardfor Information Sciences-Permanence of
Paperlor Printed LibraryMaterials,ANSI Z39.48-1992.
Contents
Tablesand Figures vii
Preface xi
Rational Public Opinion 1
2 The Myth ofCapricious Change 37
3 Opinions about Social Issues 67
4 Economic Welfare 117
5 Foreign Policy: WorldWarIIandtheColdWar 172
(Coauthored byJohn M. Gillroy)
6 Vietnam, Detente, andtheNewColdWar 221
(Coauthored byJohnM. Gillroy)
7 Parallel Publics 285
8 The Causes ofCollective Opinion Change 321
9 Education andManipulation ofPublic Opinion 355
10 Democracy, Information, andtheRational Public 383
Appendix toFigures 399
Notes 421
Bibliography 441
Index 467
v

Tablesand Figures
Tables
1.1 Instability ofIndividuals' Expressed Preferences 7
1.2 Political Information amongAmerican Adults 10
1.3 Change overTime inPublic Knowledge aboutWhich SidetheUnited
States WasSupporting inNicaragua, 1983-1987 13
1.4 Collective Opinion Stability ontheMXMissile Issue, 1985 23
1.5 Stability ofCollective Opinion onVariousIssues 24
2.1 Frequency ofSignificant Changes inCollective Opinion onRepeated
Policy Questions 45
2.2 Magnitude ofSignificant Changes inCollective Policy Preferences 46
2.3 Magnitudes andRates ofOpinion Change forDifferentTypesof
Issues 55
2.4 Frequency ofGradual Changes inCollective PolicyPreferences (among
Responses to 173Questions AskedFrequently Enough toDetect
Fluctuations) 61
6.1 Willingness toSendU.S. TroopstoFightAbroad, 1969-1973 241
7.1 Frequency withWhich Subgroup Opinion Movements Differed
Significantly for 169Repeated SurveyItems 291
7.2 Frequency withWhich Subgroup Opinion Movements Differedfor69
Repeated NORC-GSS Items, 1972-1988 292
8.1 Gross National Product andFamilyIncome, 1930-1988 323
8.2 Rising LevelsofFormal Education, 1940-1988 326
8.3 Black Migration North, 1900-1980 327
8.4 WomenintheWorkForceOutside theHome, 1930-1988 328
8.5 EffectsofTV Newsfrom VariousSources 343
8.6 Public Opposition toProtest andSocialMovements 351
Figures(SeeAppendix)
1.1 Decline inpercentage ofpublic unfamiliar withnewpresidential andvice
presidential candidates, 1987-1988 13
1.2 Distribution overtimeofahypothetical individual's opinions about
production oftheMXnuclear missile 20
1.3 Hypothetical distribution ofcollective public opinion onproduction ofthe
MX nuclear missile 21
2.1 Opinion stability: foreign policy activism, 1942-1956 48
vii
viii Tablesand Figures
2.2 Stable spending preferences, 1971-1990 49
2.3 Abrupt opinion change:theVietnamWar 57
2.4 Opinion fluctuation:Marshall PlanaidtoEurope 59
2.5 Large, gradual opinionchange:schooldesegregation, 1942-1985 63
2.6 Large, gradual opinionchange:legalabortion, 1962-1990 64
3.1 Racial issues, 1963-1990 70
3.2 Racial issues, 1940-1963 77
3.3 Responses favoringschooldesegregation byeducationandregion,
1956-1985 78
3.4 Civil liberties, college teachers, 1954-1990 82
3.5 Freespeech andassembly forCommunists, radicals, 1938-1990 87
3.6 Capitalpunishment andcourts' treatmentofcriminals, 1936-1990 92
3.7 Guncontrol, 1959-1990 97
3.8 Attitudes about epileptics, 1949-1979 98
3.9 Homosexuals,1973-1990 99
3.10 Womenworking outsidethehome, 1936-1990 101
3.11 Equal rights forwomen, 1975-1988 103
3.12 Sexeducation andbirthcontrol, 1959-1990 105
3.13 Euthanasia (forincurablepatients), 1947-1990 111
3.14 Traditional values:pornography, schoolprayer, 1964-1990 113
3.15 Prohibition ofalcoholandmarijuana, 1942-1990 114
4.1 Social Security, 1978-1990 120
4.2 Employment, 1966-1982 122
4.3 Welfare,1971-1990 126
4.4 Redistribution, 1946-1990 128
4.5 Medical care, 1965-1990 130
4.6 Education, 1955-1990 133
4.7 Cities andrace, 1965-1990 135
4.8 Labor unions, 1936-1986 138
4.9 Strikesbypublicemployees, 1965-1982 141
4.10 Regulation againstbigbusiness andindustry 144
4.11 Approval ofeconomic measures:WorldWarII 145
4.12 Wageandpricecontrols, 1965-1981 147
4.13 Energy,1973-1986 151
4.14 Nuclear power, 1973-1988 154
4.15 Environment,1966-1990 156
4.16 Taxes, 1947-1990 160
5.1 U.S. involvement inworldaffairs, 1945-1990 175
5.2 Proportions favoringU.S. involvementinworldaffairs,bylevelof
education, 1947-1990 180
5.3 WorldWarIIinvolvement, 1940-1941 186
5.4 Proposals forpeace, 1942-1945 195
5.5 U.S.-Soviet relations, 1942-1950 200
TablesandFigures ix
5.6 SupportforNATO,militaryaid,andU.S. troopsinEurope,
1948-1956 202
5.7 ExpectationsofSovietcooperation,byeducationlevel, 1944-1949 204
5.8 KoreanWar,stoppingcommunism, 1950-1956 212
5.9 U.S. andtheUnitedNations, 1951-1990 217
6.1 VietnamWar,1964-1971 232
6.2 TroopwithdrawalsfromVietnam, 1969-1972 238
6.3 AdmissionofChinatotheUnitedNations, 1953-1971 246
6.4 RelationswithChina, 1966-1981 250
6.5 SympathytowardIsrael, 1967-1990 254
6.6 Defense, 1968-1990 265
6.7 Defenseofallies, 1972-1985 266
6.8 Armssales, 1975-1985 267
6.9 RelationswiththeSovietUnion, 1974-1987 274
6.10 AidtoEISalvador, 1982-1985 276
6.11 Nicaragua, 1983-1987 278
7.1 Womenandmen:guncontrol, 1972-1990 297
7.2 Race:busing, 1972-1990 299
7.3 Income:welfare, 1973-1990 301
7.4 Age:theKoreanWar,1950-1953 305
7.5 Religion:allowlegalabortionifwomanwantsnomorechildren,
1972-1990 307
7.6 Partisanship:spendingtoimprovetheconditionsofblacks,
1973-1990 309
7.7 Partisanship:supportfortheVietnamWar,1965-1971 310
7.8 Regions:defensespending, 1973-1990 314
7.9 Education:legalizationofmarljuana, 1973-1990 316
7.10 Education:legalabortionifwomanwantsnomorechildren,
1972-1990 317
8.1 Changesinwomen's lives, 1930-1988 329
8.2 PresidentNixonandWatergate,1973-1974 337
8.3 Causesofchangesinpublicopinion 354