Table Of Content

CONTENTS FOR VOLUME CVII AUTHORS ANTON, JAMES J., AND DENNIS A. YAO. Coordination in Split Award Auctions . BANERJEE, ABHIJIT V. A Simple Model of Herd Behavior BEAULIEU, J. JOSEPH, JEFFREY K. MACKIE-MASON, AND JEFFREY A. MIRON. Why Do Countries and Industries with Large Seasonal Cycles Also Have Large Busi- SE IIOE w cicsnioresenectiexsindsscaisacciniltscishesatcesesientakatioelatienieniesanaisiabieaiebtcamenipeansiaialiaAsiaiacatesii BeckER, Gary S., AND KEVIN M. Murpuy. The Division of Labor, Coordination Costs, and Knowledge BENABOU, ROLAND, AND Guy LAROQUE. Using Privileged Information to Manipu- late Markets: Insiders, Gurus, and Credibility BLACKBURN, MCKINLEY, AND DAvID NEUMARK. Unobserved Ability, Efficiency Wages, aun Cepia Wren TI vasac scscicnssesvnsicoccsansecnbnosesevsnesescunsaseitanvinies BLANK, REBECCA M., AND MariA J. HANRATTY. Down and Out in North America: Recent Trends in Poverty Rates in the United States and Canada BorJAS, GEORGE J. Ethnic Capital and Intergenerational Mobility BOUND, JOHN, AND RICHARD B. FREEMAN. What Went Wrong? The Erosion of Relative Earnings and Employment Among Young Black Men in the 1980s ... BOUND, JOHN, AND TIMOTHY WAIDMANN. Disability Transfers, Self-Reported Health, and the Labor Force Attachment of Older Men: Evidence from the Historical Record Bowen, Harry P., AND LEO SVEIKAUSKAS. Judging Factor Abundance Boycko, Maxim. When Higher Incomes Reduce Welfare: Queues, Labor Supply, and Macro Equilibrium in Socialist Economies .................::.:sccssseeseeeseeereeeeeeees BURKETT, PAUL, AND RosBert C. VOGEL. Financial Assets, Inflation Hedges, and Capital Utilization in Developing Countries: An Extension of McKinnon’s CRT TID sissccssencntsnitcninvsossnavorsrsinsinseinnmsnenpsnteantaapitieliaddiianitinds CAMPBELL, TIM S., AND YUK-SHEE CHAN. Optimal Financial Contracting with ex pont and ax ande Chaar webilitey Prete occccccs0cccnsascesscesscesssesenecnsessnnsensreserensors CarD, DaviID, AND ALAN B. KRUEGER. School Quality and Black-White Relative Earnings: A Direct Assessment CHAN, YUK-SHEE, AND TIM S. CAMPBELL. Optimal Financial Contracting with ex post and ex ante Observability Problems CHRISTOFIDES, Louis N., AND ANDREW J. OSWALD. Real Wage Determination and Rent-Sharing in Collective Bargaining Agreements ..................:csssssssseeeeeeereeees Cooper, RUSSELL, DouGLAS V. DEJONG, ROBERT FORSYTHE, AND THOMAS W. Ross. Communication in Coordination Games CovER, JAMES PEERY. Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money Supply Davis, STEPHEN J., AND JOHN HALTIWANGER. Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation DeEJONG, DouGLas V., RUSSELL Cooper, ROBERT FORSYTHE, AND THOMAS W. Ross. Communication in Coordination Games ...................:::ccsssssesseceeesesseeeseseenseenecs DuBIN, JEFFREY A., MICHAEL J. GRAETZ, AND Louts L. WILDE. State Income Tax IE aiinscccsecintseinchscnlinilpalilinesiatiinsiaruaiinnsini~ciiapliiactieteseesttiaisiniaaabiiasinepaalaaiaain Dubey, Marc. Dynamic Edgeworth-Bertrand Competition. ...............:.:ssseeeeeseees Fo.ey, Duncan K. A Contribution to the Theory of Business Cycles FORSYTHE, ROBERT, RUSSELL COOPER, DOUGLAS V. DEJONG, AND THOMAS W. Ross. Communication in Coordination Games vi CONTENTS FOR VOLUME CVII FREEMAN, RICHARD B., AND JOHN BOUND. What Went Wrong? The Erosion of Relative Earnings and Employment Among Young Black Men in the 1980s ... GaLi, Jorp1. How Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data? ................... GARMAN, DAvipD M., AND DANIEL J. RICHARDS. Wage-Price Flexibility, Market Power, and the Cyclical Behavior of Real Wages, 1959-1980 GERONIMUS, ARLINE T., AND SANDERS KORENMAN. The Socioeconomic Conse- quences of Teen Childbearing Reconsidered GLAZER, AMIHAI, AND HENRY MCMILLAN. Pricing by the Firm Under Regulatory II hes cscs scccisiceceh anes eat etait aay eens baanassieninaa pining piaedpeoi ald aseaasendiibialddadeia cubacheb GOKHALE, JAGADEESH, AND LAURENCE J. KoT_Likorr. Estimating a Firm’s Age- Productivity Profile Using the Present Value of Workers’ Earnings ................ GOLDIN, CLAUDIA, AND ROBERT A. MARGO. The Great Compression: The Wage Structure in the United States at Mid-Century GRAETZ, MICHAEL J., JEFFREY A. DUBIN, AND Louis L. WILDE. State Income Tax I eT kc i phlei ARI Iii serena pes ticidreniechbsdeNb lapb inai cctinncticunstimbenceiovasshnicins HALTIWANGER, JOHN, AND STEVEN J. Davis. Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruc- tion, and Employment Reallocation HANRATTY, MARIA J., AND REBECCA M. BLANK. Down and Out in North America: Recent Trends in Poverty Rates in the United States and Canada HARDOUVELIS, GIKAS A., AND STAVROS PERISTIANI. Margin Requirements, Specula- tive Trading, and Stock Price Fluctuations: The Case of Japan JUHN, CHINHUI. Decline of Male Labor Market Participation: The Role of Declining eI ashes. lesrtdisa Hicnisnadncsaisvbdivniasteuhestelesheteehdbaaidbeuaeusthinaknaiumdtaie KAHN, JAMES A. Why Is Production More Volatile than Sales? Theory and Evi- dence on the Stockout-Avoidance Motive for Inventory-Holding KaTz, LAWRENCE F., AND KEVIN M. Murpuy. Changes in Relative Wages, 1963- 1987: Supply and Demand Factors KORENMAN, SANDERS, AND ARLINE T. GERONIMUS. The Socioeconomic Conse- quences of Teen Childbearing Reconsidered .... KOTLIKOFF, LAURENCE J., AND JAGADEESH GOKHALE. Estimating a Firm’s Age- Productivity Profile Using the Present Value of Workers’ Earnings ................ KRUEGER, ALAN B., AND DAvip Carb. School Quality and Black-White Relative Earnings: A Direct Assessment LABAND, DaviD N., AND JOHN P. SOPHOCLEUS. An Estimate of Resource Expendi- tures on Transfer Activity in the United States .00.............ccccccccscesseeeeeeeseeeeeeee LAROQUE, GUY, AND ROLAND BENABOU. Using Privileged Information to Manipu- late Markets: Insiders, Gurus, and Credibility LOEWENSTEIN, GEORGE, AND DRAZEN PRELEC. Anomalies in Intertemporal Choice: Evidence and an Interpretation MACKIE-MASON, JEFFREY K., J. JOSEPH BEAULIEU, AND JEFFREY A. MIRON. Why Do Countries and Industries with Large Seasonal Cycles Also Have Large Busi- IIIT snsnknisoinndaldimacntiaiecidlaneintcunicccnskeinastedeeiede MANKIW, N. GREGORY, DAVID ROMER, AND Davib N. WEIL. A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth Marco, RoBerT A., AND CLAUDIA GOLDIN. The Great Compression: The Wage Structure in the United States at Mid-Century MATSUSAKA, JOHN G. Economics of Direct Legislation MCMILLAN, HENRY, AND AMIHAI GLAZER. Pricing by the Firm Under Regulatory MIRON, JEFFREY A., J. JOSEPH BEAULIEU, AND JEFFREY K. MACKIE-Mason. Why Do Countries and Industries with Large Seasonal Cycles Also Have Large Busi- ness Cycles? ......... iach Ueaalesobealcla iedab iaetesadacatloisehitcissubaapeelicedeseidnvi enatalvatiacsediniimnaitcieieaea l Murpuy, KEVIN M., AND FINIS WELCH. The Structure of Wages .................:.sc0e00000 Murpny, KEVIN M., AND Gary S. BECKER. The Division of Labor, Coordination Costs, and Knowledge CONTENTS FOR VOLUME CVII Murpuy, KEVIN M., AND LAWRENCE F. Katz. Changes in Relative Wages, 1963- 1987: Supply and Demand Factors MuRPHY, KEVIN M., ANDREI SHLEIFER, AND ROBERT W. VISHNY. The Transition to a Market Economy: Pitfalls of Partial Reform NEUMARK, DAVID, AND STEVEN A. SHARPE. Market Structure and the Nature of Price Rigidity: Evidence from the Market for Consumer Deposits NEUMARK, DaviD, AND MCKINLEY BLACKBURN. Unobserved Ability, Efficiency Wages, and Interindustry Wage Differentials OSWALD, ANDREW J., AND Louis N. CHRISTOFIDES. Real Wage Determination and Rent-Sharing in Collective Bargaining Agreements PELTZMAN, SAM. Voters as Fiscal Conservatives PERISTIANI, STAVROS, AND GIKAS A. HARDOUVELIS. Margin Requirements, Specula- tive Trading, and Stock Price Fluctuations: The Case of Japan PETERSEN, MITCHELL A. Pension Reversions and Worker-Stockholder Wealth Transfers PHELPS, EDMUND S. Consumer Demand and Equilibrium Unemployment in a Working Model of the Customer-Market Incentive-Wage Economy PISSARIDES, CHRISTOPHER A. Loss of Skill During Unemployment and the Persis- RS eI TID bai ectnrnsecsnaaenepnirsciensisrsneineanininitniiiaindainnaeienibniianaah PRASNIKAR, VESNA, AND ALVIN E. Rotu. Considerations of Fairness and Strategy: Experimental Data from Sequential Games PRELEC, DRAZEN, AND GEORGE LOEWENSTEIN. Anomalies in Intertemporal Choice: Evidence and an Interpretation QUIRMBACH, HERMAN C. Sequential Vertical Integration REVENGA, ANA L. Exporting Jobs: The Impact of Import Competition on Employ- ment and Wages in U. S. Manufacturing RICHARDS, DANIEL J., AND DAaviD M. GARMAN. Wage- Price Flexibility, Market Power, and the Cyclical Behavior of Real Wages, 1959-1980 RITSCHARD, GILBERT. The Fundamentals of Monotone Processes Reviewed Through an Inefficiency Measure Romer, Davip, N. GREGORY MANKIW, AND DavipD N. WEIL. A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth Ross, THomas W., RUSSELL Cooper, DouGLas V. DEJONG, AND ROBERT FORSYTHE. Communication in Coordination Games Rotu, ALVIN E., AND VESNA PRASNIKAR. Considerations of Fairness and Strategy: Experimental Data from Sequential Games SAINT-PAUL, GILLES. Fiscal Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model ....................++. SCHOTTER, ANDREW, AND KEITH WEIGELT. Asymmetric Tournaments, Equal Oppor- tunity Laws, and Affirmative Action: Some Experimental Results SeYHUN, H. NeJat. Why Does Aggregate Insider Trading Predict Future Stock IIIT siccissuineiriibsstsrchsichasisiiebiocnianiicdapeaidenieiaiimsislitssiibienmeetneenabaaepdiiniiinalbeamn SHARPE, STEVEN A., AND DAVID NEUMARK. Market Structure and the Nature of Price Rigidity: Evidence from the Market for Consumer Deposits SHLEIFER, ANDREI, KEVIN M. MURPHY, AND ROBERT W. VISHNY. The Transition to a Market Economy: Pitfalls of Partial Reform SOPHOCLEUS, JOHN P., AND DAvip N. LABAND. An Estimate of Resource Expendi- tures on Transfer Activity in the United States SVEIKAUSKAS, LEO, AND Harry P. BOWEN. Judging Factor Abundance TOPEL, RoBERT H., AND MICHAEL F. WARD. Job Mobility and the Careers of Young VaNHoosgE, Davip D., AND CHRISTOPHER J. WALLER. Discretionary Monetary Policy and Socially Efficient Wage Indexation VISHNY, ROBERT W., KEVIN M. MURPHY, AND ANDREI SHLEIFER. The Transition to a Market Economy: Pitfalls of Partial Reform viii CONTENTS FOR VOLUME CVII VOGEL, ROBERT C., AND PAUL BURKETT. Financial Assets, Inflation Hedges, and Capital Utilization in Developing Countries: An Extension of McKinnon’s Complementarity Hypothesis WAIDMANN, TIMOTHY, AND JOHN BOUND. Disability Transfers, Self-Reported Health, and the Labor Force Attachment of Older Men: Evidence from the Historical WALDMANN, Rosert J. Income Distribution and Infant Mortality WALLER, CHRISTOPHER J., AND DAvip D. VANHOoosE. Discretionary Monetary Policy and Socially Efficient Wage Indexation Warp, MICHAEL P., AND ROBERT H. ToPEL. Job Mobility and the Careers of Young WARNER, ANDREW M. Did the Debt Crisis Cause the Investment Crisis? ................. WEBB, Davin C. Two-Period Financial Contracts with Private Information and Costly State Verification WEIGELT, KEITH, AND ANDREW SCHOTTER. Asymmetric Tournaments, Equal Oppor- tunity Laws, and Affirmative Action: Some Experimental Results ................... WEIL, Davin N., N. GREGORY MANKIW, AND Davip RoMER. A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth ...... . . WEITZMAN, MARTIN L. On Diversity .................::.sscsssccessssecessees WELCH, FINIS, AND KEVIN M. Murpuy. The Structure of Wages WILDE, Louts L., JEFFREY A. DUBIN, AND MICHAEL J. GRAETZ. State Income Tax REN a le ESOL Cee RR EEE ee RR A es eR A YAO, DENNIS A., AND JAMESJ . ANTON. Coordination in Split Award Auctions .......... TITLES Anomalies in Intertemporal Choice: Evidence and an Interpretation. George Loewenstein and Drazen Prelec Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money Supply Shocks. James Peery Asymmetric Tournaments, Equal Opportunity Laws, and Affirmative Action: Some Experimental Results. Andrew Schotter and Keith Weige!t Changes in Relative Wages, 1963-1987: Supply and Demand Factors. Lawrence F. Katz and Kevin M. Murphy Communication in Coordination Games. Russell Cooper, Douglas V. DeJong, SRUOUE OUP EING, GUN DIMOND WT. TOIID oveicsccscnecnsnsccscccsirsnccsiensnsiesieupacencososesseis Considerations of Fairness and Strategy: Experimental Data from Sequential Games. Vesna Prasnikar and Alvin E. Roth Consumer Demand and Equilibrium Unemployment in a Working Model of the Customer-Market Incentive-Wage Economy. Edmund §S. Phelps....................- A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth. N. Gregory Mankiw, David Romer, and David N. Weil A Contribution to the Theory of Business Cycles. Duncan K. Foley Coordination in Split Award Auctions. James J. Anton and Dennis A. Yao Decline of Male Labor Market Participation: The Role of Declining Market Opportunities. Chinhui Juhn Did the Debt Crisis Cause the Investment Crisis? Andrew M. Warner Disability Transfers, Self-Reported Health, and the Labor Force Attachment of Older Men: Evidence from the Historical Record. John Bound and Timothy Discretionary Monetary Policy and Socially Efficient Wage Indexation. Christo- pher J. Waller and David D. VanHoose CONTENTS FOR VOLUME CVII The Division of Labor, Coordination Costs, and Knowledge. Gary S. Becker and Kevin M. Murphy Down and Out in North America: Recent Trends in Poverty Rates in the United States and Canada. Maria J. Hanratty and Rebecca M. Blank Dynamic Edgeworth-Bertrand Competition. Marc Dudey Economics of Direct Legislation. John G. Matsusaka ..................c:cc:cseesseeeeeseeeeereeees An Estimate of Resource Expenditures on Transfer Activity in the United States. David N. Laband and John P. Sophocleus Estimating a Firm’s Age-Productivity Profile Using the Present Value of Workers’ Earnings. Laurence J. Kotlikoff and Jagadeesh Gokhale Ethnic Capital and Intergenerational Mobility. George J. Borjas .......................... Exporting Jobs: The Impact of Import Competition on Employment and Wages in U.S. Manufacturing. Ana L. Revenga Financial Assets, Inflation Hedges, and Capital Utilization in Developing Coun- tries: An Extension of McKinnon’s Complementarity Hypothesis. Paul Bur- RR aw ee eae ee : Fiscal Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model. Gilles Saint-Paul The Fundamentals of Monotone Processes Reviewed Through an Inefficiency Measure. Gilbert Ritschard The Great Compression: The Wage Structure in the United States at Mid- Century. Claudia Goldin and Robert A. Margo Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation. Steven J. Davis and John Haltiwanger How Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U. S. Data? Jordi Gali Income Distribution and Infant Mortality. Robert J. Waldmann Job Mobility and the Careers of Young Men. Robert H. Topel and Michael P. Judging Factor Abundance. Harry P. Bowen and Leo Sveikauskas Loss of Skill During Unemployment and the Persistence of Employment Shocks. I Te risassninredictesiciareintinnseniestnstiininicnatininipnssiisninteaataiaendiins Margin Requirements, Speculative Trading, and Stock Price Fluctuations: The Case of Japan. Gikas A. Hardouvelis and Stavros Peristiani Market Structure and the Nature of Price Rigidity: Evidence from the Market for Consumer Deposits. David Neumark and Steven A. Sharpe On Diversity. Martin L. Weitzman Optimal Financial Contracting with ex post and ex ante Observability Problems. Tim S. Campbell and Yuk-Shee Chan Pension Reversions and Worker-Stockholder Wealth Transfers. Mitchell A. Pe- Pricing by the Firm Under Regulatory Threat. Amihai Glazer and Henry McMil- Real Wage Determination and Rent-Sharing in Collective Bargaining Agreements. Louis N. Christofides and Andrew J. Oswald School Quality and Black-White Relative Earnings: A Direct Assessment. David Card and Alan B. Krueger Sequential Vertical Integration. Herman C. Quirmbach A Simple Model of Herd Behavior. Abhijit V. Banerjee The Socioeconomic Consequences of Teen Childbearing Reconsidered. Arline T Geronimus and Sanders Korenman State Income Tax Amnesties: Causes. Jeffrey A. Dubin, Michael J. Graetz, and Louis L. Wilde The Structure of Wages. Kevin M. Murphy and Finis Welch The Transition to a Market Economy: Pitfalls of Partial Reform. Kevin M. Murphy, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert W. Vishny Two-Period Financial Contracts with Private Information and Costly State Verifi- cation. David C. Webb x CONTENTS FOR VOLUME CVII Unobserved Ability, Efficiency Wages, and Interindustry Wage Differentials. McKinley Blackburn, and David Neumark Using Privileged Information to Manipulate Markets: Insiders, Gurus, and Credi- bility. Roland Benabou and Guy Laroque Voters as Fiscal Conservatives. Sam Peltzman Wage-Price Flexibility, Market Power, and the Cyclical Behavior of Real Wages, 1959-1980. David M. Garman and Daniel J. Richards ....................ccccseesseeeeees What Went Wrong? The Erosion of Relative Earnings and Employment Among Young Black Men in the 1980s. John Bound and Richard B. Freeman When Higher Incomes Reduce Welfare: Queues, Labor Supply, and Macro Equilib- rium in Socialist Economies. Maxim Boycko Why Do Countries and Industries with Large Seasonal Cycles Also Have Large Business Cycles? J. Joseph Beaulieu, Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason, and Jeffrey A. Why Does Aggregate Insider Trading Predict Future Stock Returns? H. Nejat Seyhun Why Is Production More Volatile than Sales? Theory and Evidence on the Stockout-Avoidance Motive for Inventory-Holding. James A. Kahn ‘ a we ~ Bs 4 . - eo r of > > 4 ~ . * ’ . ‘ ~ + - © ( - ’ i e © < ~ ‘ } . ~ . RU ‘