The Potential of Agro-Ecosystems Payments for Ecosystem Services to Provide Ecosystem Services and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries: A Case Study of the EPWS Program in Tanzania Emmanuel Jonas Kwayu Submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Leeds School of Earth & Environment September, 2016 The candidate confirms that the work submitted is his own, except where work which has formed part of jointly-authored publications has been included. The contribution of the candidate and the other authors to his work has been explicitly indicated below. The candidate confirms that appropriate credit has been given where reference has been made to the work of others. This copy has been supplied on the understanding that it is copyright material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement. @ 2016 University of Leeds and Emmanuel Jonas Kwayu i Chapter 4 is based on article published as: Kwayu, E. J., S. M. Sallu and J. Paavola (2014), “Farmer participation in the equitable payments for watershed services in Morogoro, Tanzania”. Ecosystem Services, Available online: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212041613001034). Chapter 5 is based on article under review as: Kwayu, E. J., S. M. Sallu and J. Paavola (2016), “Livelihood Contribution of a PES Scheme for Sustainable Land Management in Morogoro, Tanzania” (submitted to the Journal of Environmental and Development Economics) All the above manuscripts constitute an important part of my thesis. I am lead author on these articles as they represent the publications generated from PhD studies. Consequently, I use my own collected data, empirical results and analysis. The articles are co-authored with my supervisors whose role was in the recommendation of revisions and edits to these articles. ii Acknowledgements I would like to firstly acknowledge the generous funding of STEP through Dar es Salaam University College of Education (DUCE), without which this PhD studentship would have been impossible. Secondly, for their priceless support, feedback and encouragement, I sincerely thank “YOU” my supervisors Susannah Sallu and Jouni Paavola. To all of the many people, including Michelle Lesnianski, I need to stress the value of your support, which is highly acknowledged. “Thank you all”. Finally, I am thankful to Almighty God and my family who are always with me in good and awful days. iii Abstract This thesis investigates the effectiveness of agro-ecosystem based PES programs to provide ecosystem services and achieve poverty reduction. A case study from Tanzania known as the “equitable payments for watershed services (EPWS) program” piloted between 2008 and 2012 in Morogoro region has been used as the basis for an in-depth empirical study of an agro- ecosystem based PES program. The case-study approach has combined mixed methods quasi experimental research design and propensity score matching technique to prioritise attribution of the livelihood and environmental outcomes of the intervention, which remain under-utilized in evaluation of conservation interventions. The thesis findings provide insights that while the poor can participate in agro-ecosystem PES programs, their participation can be hindered by initial investment costs of inputs such as on manure, improved seeds, hoes and spades. Farm size, farmers’ access to information, participation in the design phase, and the change in farm management required by the program are significant determinants of program participation. Also, while PES payments contribute to local livelihoods, the indirect financial and non-financial benefits provide greatest contributions to livelihoods. In relation to additionality impact, program participation increases the number of sustainable land management practices and land under agro-forestry and reforestation amongst program participants. Furthermore, expected benefits such as crop yields from constructed terraces and manure, fire wood and timber products iv from agro-forestry and afforestation interventions are likely to increase the life span of the practices. The design of agro-ecosystem PES programs should include upfront payments in addition to other incentives which should be made timely in phases to ensure compliance. Local training and paraprofessional, external training and both enhancement of local formal and informal rules are essential to enhance the adoption of practices and to stop illegal activities such as forest reserve encroachment, illegal logging and fire. Keywords: quasi-experiment; propensity score matching; ecosystem services, payments for ecosystem services (PES); forest, agricultural based PES program, participation, livelihoods; agriculture; sustainable land management; water; Tanzania, Africa v Table of Contents Acknowledgements ..................................................................................... ii Abstract ...................................................................................................... iii List of Figures .............................................................................................. x List of Tables ............................................................................................ xiv Chapter 1: Introduction ............................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ......................................................................................... 1 1.2 The Specific Objectives of the Thesis ................................................. 6 1.3 Thesis Structure .................................................................................. 7 Chapter 2: Literature Review .................................................................... 10 2.1 Chapter Outline ................................................................................. 10 2.2 Ecosystem Services Concept ............................................................ 11 2.3 Payments for Ecosystem Services .................................................... 16 2.3.1 The Basic Principle of PES ........................................................ 16 2.3.2 Critique of PES .......................................................................... 22 2.3.3 PES in Context ........................................................................... 23 2.3.4 Implementation of PES Programs .............................................. 26 2.3.5 PES and Livelihoods and Poverty .............................................. 37 2.3.6 Development of PWS Programs in Africa .................................. 40 2.4 Evaluating Payments for Environmental Services ............................. 48 2.5 Synthesis and Conclusions ............................................................... 52 Chapter 3: Research Design, Methods and Study Site ........................... 56 3.1 Chapter Outline ................................................................................. 56 3.2 Research Design ............................................................................... 57 3.2.1 Case Study Approach ................................................................ 57 3.2.2 Selection of the Study Site ......................................................... 58 3.2.3 Evaluating the Effectiveness of the EPWS Program .................. 59 vi 3.3 Research Methods ............................................................................. 68 3.3.1 Mixed Method Approach ............................................................. 68 3.3.2 Data Collection ........................................................................... 69 3.3.3 Research Phases ....................................................................... 70 3.3.4 Household Survey ...................................................................... 72 3.3.5 Wealth Ranking .......................................................................... 73 3.3.6 Sampling ..................................................................................... 75 3.3.7 Interview Procedure .................................................................... 77 3.3.8 Semi-structured Key Informant Interviews .................................. 78 3.3.9 Focus Group Discussions ........................................................... 78 3.3.10 Fieldwork Observations ........................................................... 79 3.3.11 Field Experience ..................................................................... 79 3.4 Data Analysis ..................................................................................... 83 3.4.1 Quantitative Data ........................................................................ 83 3.4.2 Qualitative Data .......................................................................... 84 3.5 Study site ........................................................................................... 85 3.5.1 The Uluguru Mountains – Location ............................................. 85 3.5.2 The Climate of the Region .......................................................... 87 3.5.3 Biodiversity ................................................................................. 88 3.5.4 The Importance of the Uluguru Mountains for Water .................. 89 3.5.5 The Status of the Forests in the Uluguru Mountains ................... 91 3.5.6 Agricultural Practices in the Uluguru Mountains ......................... 95 3.5.7 Land Access and Tenure ............................................................ 98 3.5.8 Conservation Practices in the Uluguru Mountains .................... 101 3.5.9 The EPWS Program ................................................................. 104 3.5.9.1 Implementation of the EPWS Program .............................. 107 3.5.9.2 Payment Arrangements and Modalities ............................. 114 3.5.10 Livelihood Patterns in the Case study Villages...................... 117 3.5.10.1 Land Ownership ................................................................ 117 3.5.10.2 Housing Condition ............................................................. 120 3.5.10.3 Education and Social Services .......................................... 121 3.5.10.4 Sources of Livelihood ........................................................ 124 3.5.10.5 Household Asset Wealth ................................................... 125 vii 3.5.10.6 Gender and Relative Wealth ............................................. 127 3.6 The Propensity Score Matching and the Implementation ................ 129 3.7 Conclusions ..................................................................................... 135 Chapter 4: Farmer Participation in the Equitable Payments for Watershed Services in Morogoro, Tanzania .......................................... 136 4.1 Chapter Outline ............................................................................... 136 4.2 Introduction ..................................................................................... 136 4.3 Material and Methods ...................................................................... 140 4.4 Results ............................................................................................ 147 4.5 Discussion ....................................................................................... 156 4.6 Conclusion ...................................................................................... 160 Chapter 5: The Livelihood Outcomes of the EPWS Programme ......... 162 5.1 Chapter Outline ............................................................................... 162 5.2 Introduction ..................................................................................... 162 5.3 Material and Methods ...................................................................... 167 5.4 Results ............................................................................................ 168 5.4.1 Direct and Indirect Financial and Non-financial Benefits .......... 168 5.4.1.1 Direct and Indirect Financial Benefits ................................ 168 5.4.1.2 Indirect Non-financial Outcomes ....................................... 177 5.4.2 Distribution of EPWS Program Outcomes ................................ 182 5.4.2.1 Distribution of Outcomes According to the Household’s Wealth Quartile ............................................................................... 182 5.4.2.2 Distribution of Outcomes According to the Gender of the Household ....................................................................................... 185 5.5 Discussion ....................................................................................... 188 5.5.1 Direct and Indirect Financial and Non-financial Benefits .......... 188 5.5.2 Distribution of EPWS Program Outcomes ................................ 193 5.6 Conclusion ...................................................................................... 195 viii Chapter 6: The Effectiveness of the EPWS Program to Increase Water Quantity and Quality Supply Downstream. ............................................ 198 6.1 Chapter Outline ................................................................................ 198 6.2 Introduction ...................................................................................... 198 6.3 The Effectiveness of PES Programs to Deliver Ecosystem Services .... ......................................................................................................... 200 6.4 Challenges of Evaluating Conservation Interventions - PES ........... 204 6.5 Assessing Effectiveness in Conservation ........................................ 206 6.6 Materials and Methods ..................................................................... 208 6.7 Results ............................................................................................. 212 6.7.1 Estimates of the Program Additionality Effects ......................... 212 6.7.2 Leakage Impacts of the EPWS Program .................................. 216 6.7.3 Permanence ............................................................................. 218 6.7.4 Cost Effectiveness - Transaction and Opportunity Costs .......... 220 6.8 Discussion ....................................................................................... 223 6.9 Conclusion ....................................................................................... 229 Chapter 7: Discussion .............................................................................. 231 7.1 Introduction ...................................................................................... 231 7.2 Methodological Reflections .............................................................. 233 7.3 Summary of Findings ....................................................................... 236 7.4 Synthesis of Findings Across Result Chapters ................................ 238 7.4.1 Revisiting Objective one: to Examine Participation and the Factors which Determine Participation Decision in the EPWS Program. .. .................................................................................................. 239 7.4.2 Revisiting Objective Two: to Evaluate the Livelihood Outcomes of the EPWS Program on Program Participants Compared to Non- participants. ......................................................................................... 244 7.4.3 Revisiting Objective Three: to Evaluate the Effectiveness of the EPWS Program in Terms of its Additionality and Leakage Effects as well
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