The Politics of Presidential Term Limits

666 Pages·2019·4.656 MB·English

by  Alexander Baturo (editor), Robert Elgie (editor)

OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 28/05/19, SPi
THE POLITICS OF PRESIDENTIAL
TERM LIMITS
OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 28/05/19, SPi
OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 28/05/19, SPi
The Politics of
Presidential Term
Limits
Edited by
ALEXANDER BATURO
and
ROBERT ELGIE
1
OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 28/05/19, SPi
1
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First Edition published in 2019
Impression: 1
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OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 28/05/19, SPi
Contents
List of Figures ix
List of Tables xi
List of Contributors xiii
1. Presidential Term Limits 1
Alexander Baturo and Robert Elgie
SECTION I
2. Theorizing Presidential Rotation 19
Peter Stone
3. One Size Does Not Fit All: The Provision and Interpretation
of Presidential Term Limits 37
Tom Ginsburg and Zachary Elkins
4. Term Limits and the Unconstitutional Constitutional
Amendment Doctrine: Lessons from Latin America 53
David Landau, Yaniv Roznai, and Rosalind Dixon
5. Continuismo in Comparison: Avoidance, Extension,
and Removal of Presidential Term Limits 75
Alexander Baturo
SECTION II
6. Presidential Term Limits in Latin America: c.1820–1985 103
Leiv Marsteintredet
7. Presidential Term Limits as a Credible-Commitment
Mechanism: The Case of Brazil’s Military Regime 123
Octavio Amorim Neto and Igor P. Acácio
8. The Politics of Presidential Term Limits in Mexico 141
Joseph L. Klesner
9. Presidential Term Limits in Nicaragua 159
David Close
10. The Politics of Presidential Term Limits in Tunisia 179
Alessandra Bonci and Francesco Cavatorta
OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 28/05/19, SPi
vi Contents
11. Presidential Term Limits in Togo: Electoral Accountability
Postponed 199
John R. Heilbrunn
12. Presidential Terms in Kazakhstan: Less is More? 221
Dmitry Nurumov and Vasil Vashchanka
13. China: Limiting and Regularizing Top Political Power 247
Zhengxu Wang and Anastas Vangeli
14. Term Limits and Succession in Dictatorships 269
Natasha Ezrow
SECTION III
15. The Politics of Presidential Term Limits in Malawi 291
Peter VonDoepp
16. Should I Stay or Should I Go? Term Limits, Elections, and
Political Change in Kenya, Uganda, and Zambia 311
Nic Cheeseman
17. Senegal (1970–2016): Presidential Term Limit Reforms
Never Come Alone 339
Charlotte Heyl
18. Presidential Term Limits in Burkina Faso 363
Sophia Moestrup
19. The Uses and Abuses of Presidential Term Limits in Russian
Politics 385
Paul Chaisty
SECTION IV
20. The Politics of Presidential Term Limits in the United States 405
Michael J. Korzi
21. Presidential Term Limits in Europe 429
Robert Elgie
22. Term Limits in South Korea: Promises and Perils 451
Fiona Yap
23. The Politics of Presidential Term Limits in Argentina 473
Mariana Llanos
24. The Politics of Presidential Term Limits in Central America:
Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras 495
Juan Muñoz-Portillo and Ilka Treminio
Contents vii
25. The Politics of Presidential Term Limits in Latin America:
From Re-democratization to Today 517
José Antonio Cheibub and Alejandro Medina
26. Presidential Term Limits in Bolivia 535
David Doyle
SECTION V
27. Presidential Term Limits and the International Community 557
Christina Murray, Eric Alston, and Micha Wiebusch
28. Effects of Presidential Term Limits 585
Akisato Suzuki
29. What Have We Learned about Presidential Term Limits? 607
Alexander Baturo and Robert Elgie
Index 623
OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 28/05/19, SPi
OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 28/05/19, SPi
List of Figures
3.1 Maximum term length (term length × term limit) 40
3.2 Variation in kinds of term limits over time 42
3.3 Term limits in and outside Latin America over time 44
5.1 When do presidents carry out continuismo? 88
5.2 How continuismo ends 90
5.3A Presidential continuismo, 1945–2017 93
5.3B Presidential continuismo, 1945–2017 94
6.1 Development of models for presidential term limits in Latin
America c.1820–1985 107
7.1 Durability of authoritarian regimes (1946–2010) 124
7.2 Durability of military regimes (1946–2010) 124
7.3 Weighted vs non-weighted tension events per year (1946–85) 131
7.4 Weighted total of tension events related to presidential succession
vs. total score per year (1964–1985) 132
7.5 Brazil’s gross domestic product growth (1960–90) 136
19.1 Predicted probability that opponents/supporters of stricter term
limits agreed with the statement: “The protest meetings in Moscow
and other cities against the results of the December 2011 elections
to the State Duma were justified.” 397
25.1 Classification of presidential term limit regimes in Latin America,
1946–2016 524
25.2 Proportion of Latin American countries by presidential reelection
rules, 1946–2016 528
28.1 Conditional average marginal effects on the probability of the onset
of repression 598
28.2 Predicted probability of the onset of repression 598
28.3 Conditional average marginal effects on the severity of repression 599