The Politics of Oil-Producer Cooperation The Political Economy of Global Interdependence Thomas D. Willeft, Series Editor The Politics of Oil-Prodltcer Cooperation, Dag Harald Claes States, Banks, and Mnrkts: Mexico's Path to Fhancl'al Libermlimtion in Coitnyarativc F"erspecZive, Nancy Auehni lh The Political Economy of Eumpealz Monetary Utz$~atia~z, second edition, edited by Jelfrey A. Frieden and Garry Eicfiengreen Peace Pmsperity, and Politics, edited b y Johrl Mueller Finnmial Mnrk t Reform i~ Ghirzn: Pmgress, Pmbkms, and Pmspetlts, edited b y Baizhu Chen, J. Kimball Dietrich, and Y i Feng l~zslifutionsT, rarzsition Eco~zunzil;.as,n d Ecorzollzic Ilewlopr~ent, b y "Em Yeager Gapitnl Cttsstrols iu Emsr;_piFzg Ecmomitts, edited by Chsistine E? Ries m d Richard J. Sweeney Exlunge-Rn te Policies for Ernergiq Ma&t Econctmks, edited b y fiicharci J. Sweemy. Clas Wihlborg, and mamas D. Willett Political Capacity and Ecor?ombc Rehavhr, edited b y Marina Arbetman and Jacek Kugler Jlddging Econv~~Pico licy: Selecfe d Writing of Gottfrid Haberler, edited b y Rcharcl J . Sweeney Edward Tower, m d m a m a s D, Willett Interest Grolrps and Monetary h~tegration:T he Political Economy of Exchange Regirne Choice, Carsten Hefeker Crozuth, DCbt, and Puliiics: Economic Adjustment and the PoliticnZ Performance of Developing Collntries, b y Lewis W. Snider Establishing Mntzetar!j Stability in Emergiq Muvkef Ecorrumies, edited by Tholnas D. Willett, et al. The PO Oil-Producer Cooperation Dag Harald Claes '/ A Member of the Perseus Rook Croup All rights reserved, Printed in the United Stater; of America, No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, in- cltiding photocopy, recording, or any infarmation storage and retrieval system, withnut permission in writkg from the publisher, Ccyyright Q 2001 by Westview P r ~ sA, Member of the Perseus Books Grotlp P~tbIishedi n 2002 in tlw United Stater; of America by Wwtview Press, 5500 Central Avenue, Boulder, Colorado 80301-2877, and in tl-re United Kingdom by West-view Press, "L Hid's Copse Rc~adC, ttrnnor HitX, Oxford OX2 9JJ Find us on the World Wide Web at wm.westviewpress.com Library of Ccmgress Cataloghg-in-Publication Data CIaes, Dag Harald The politics of oil-producer cooperationlkg HaraId CIaes. p. cm,----jn-rep olitical ecclnomy of global interdependence) fr-rcludab ibliograpl-rical references and index, BBN 0-8133-6M3-X (#k.) I, Petrt~leurni ndt~strya nd tradelnternatic~nalc ooperation-Pc~liticala spects. I. Title, B, Series The paper ttsed in this publication meets the requirements of the Amex-ican National Stan- dard far Pemanence c ~ Pf aper for Prir-rted Library Materials 239-48-1984. Figure 2.2 T k R ed Line, on page 55, is reprinted with the permission oi S i l n m & Muster from The Prize: The Epic Q~lesffi r Oil, Mo2zc.y 6. Power by Da~ieYl ergin. Copyright O 1991,1992 by DmieX Yergk. Figure 2.1 5: E e ~ d sirz taxatio~zo f yeholeurn prodzrcfs, on page 75, is reprinted with the permissio~of~ t he PR & Infomat.iom Departxnent. of Ihe OIYC Secretariat from Shokri Ghanem: "The role and impact of 012~~'s market share" in OPEC Bulletin vol. XXIX, no G., 'June 1998, Figure 7.10: Cvzide oil prices, ncfz ial alzd slkccessive Ivl fcr~zationalE nergy Workshop polls, cm page 27'4, is =printed with permission of iwr Press .from Tfie C e ~ i eou t of the Bottle: Wodd Oil Since 1970 by Rlforris A. Add- man. Copyright @ 1995 by the Massachusetts Enstitute of Technology Contents List of Tnbles nad Figrrrres x i Acronyms X V AL.kr?uwledgrn~~zts xvii 1.1 a3 as hternational Politics, 2 1.2 Znternational Cooperation, 3 1 hternational Political Econamy, 6 1.4 The Multilevel Approach, 8 1.5 Relaticms to Economic n e o ~2,0 1 A Nate on Sources, 27 Notes, 31 2 Market Context 2.1 Market Strucbre, 36 22 Market Power, 44 2.3 The Era of the International Oil Companies, 51 2.4 'f'he OI~ECE ra, 60 2 5 Structural Effects af the Price hcreases, 70 2.6 New Market-Power Relations, 77 2.7 Conclusion, 88 Notes, 91 3 f"olit;icalC ontext 3.1 Politiciaation, 96 3.2 a3 m d Scrcurity, 99 3.3 'f'he Irm-kaq War, 101 3.4 The Iraq-Kuwait War, 107 3.5 hternal nreats, 114 3.6 Politicai Cooperaticm Between the Gulf States, 121 3.7 Conclusion, 126 Notes, 127 Con telz ts 4.0 OPEC as m Xnternatio~~Oalr ganization 131 4.1 fnstitutimal Approaches, 131 4.2 'I'he Organfzational Stntcturl, of OPEC, 142 4.3 hstitnxtio~~Faml ~ctionso f OPEC1, 44 4.4 Conclusion, 164 Notes, 166 5 Price and Produc.tion Policy of OPEC Countries 5.1 'The Redundant Cartel: OPEC Price Policy; 1WI-1981,172 5.2 The Effective Cartel: a9ecQ uota Policy, 1982-1985,182 5.3 The Defeded Cartel: OPEC Market-Share Policy, 198611998, 188 Notes, 198 6 Country Case 1: Saudi Arabia-A Hegemcmic Power 6.1 A Dynamic Approach to Hegeznony; 294 6.2 The Making of a Hegemon, 207 6.3 'The fncapable Hegemcm, 1973-1981,218 6.4 The Be~~evoleHnte gemon: Swing Producer, 1982-11985,225 6.5 'The Coerilive Hegemon, 1986-1996,231 6.6 The Mixed Strategy; 1999-2080,233 6 . The Relative Power of the Hegemon, 234 Notes, 237 7 OPECA: . Successful Cartel? 7.1 Conditions for Cartels, 240 7.2 Cartel Behavior, 243 7.3 OPEC as a Price-Maker, 247 7.4 Quota Compliance, 253 7.5 The Profits of Cooperation, 269 7.6 A Cartel or a Success?, 273 Notes, 278 8 Extending the Cooperation: OPEC and the Non-Op~cP roducers 8.11 The N o n - o ~ ~Prco ducers in General, 282 8.2 The OPEC-NOP~-C?BI~arEgCah ing, 289 8.3 E ~ l a i n i n gN on-OPECC ooperative Behavicrr, 292 Notes, 295 CLHteZn t s ix 9 Country Case 12: Norway-From Free-Riding to Cooperation 297 9.1 Domestic Factors in International Relations, 299 9.2 'The Bqaining Process, 301 9.3 The Bargaining Game Between OPEC and Norway; 316 9.4 Explaining the NOrwegian Policy Chmge, 326 9.5 Conclusion, 346 Notes, 348 10 Oil-Producer Cooperation and the Shtdy of hternational Political Economy 40.1 Empirical Findings, 353 10.2 The Explanato~M o&l Revisited, 361 18.3 The Value sl:C ombinhg Political Science and Economics, 366 10.4 neoretical Implications, 371 Notes, 378