The politics of economic planning in postwar Japan : a study in political economy

316 Pages·1986·11.427 MB·English

by  Walter Arnold

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Arnold, Walter
THE POLITICS OF ECONOMIC PLANNING IN POSTWAR JAPAN: A STUDY
IN POLITICAL ECONOMY
University of California, Berkeley Ph.D. 1984
University
Microfilms
International
300 N. Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, Ml 48106

The Politics of Economic Planning in Postwar Japan:
A Study in Political Economy
By
Walter Arnold
A.B. (State University of New York at Buffalo) 1973
A.M. (Stanford University) 1976
DISSERTATION
Submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
in
Political Science
in the
GRADUATE DIVISION
OF THE
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY
.V
Approved:
WHIM
THE POLITICS OF ECONOMIC PLANNING IN POSTWAR JAPAN
A STUDY IN POLITICAL ECONOMY
Q
Copyri ght 1984
by
Walter Arnold
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
In researching and writing of this study I have incurred a
great many debts to individuals, organizations and institutions
on both sides of the Pacific. I am deeply indebted to the members
of my dissertation committee, Profs. Robert A. Scalapino (chair),
Chalmers A. Johnson, and Carl Mosk, for their intellectual encourage­
ment and support. In Japan I have benefited from support and advice
by Professor Masu Uekusa, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo,
Mr. Yasuo Katsumura, then Director of the Industrial Economic Affairs
Division, Coordination Bureau of the Economic Planning Agency, and
also Professor Kiichi Kageyama, Faculty of Economics, Chiba Sho-Dai.
My research stay in Japan from 1978-1980 was made possible by a
generous scholarship provided by Monbusho. My institutional affilia­
tion with Todai's Faculty of Economics has been useful in various
ways and greatly contributed to the successful completion of my
field work. Lastly, I want to acknowledge with gratitude Professor
Suruki Akagi's interest in my work and professional development,
and also his friendship and hospitality over the years.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter Page
INTRODUCTION .................................................................................... 1
1. Foreword......................................................................... 1
2. Organizing Core of the Study............................... 4
2.1. Thesis............................................................................. 4
2.2. S cope............................................................................. 5
3. On Sources..................................................................... 6
I. THE POLITICS OF JAPANESE ECONOMIC PLANNING ...................... 10
1. Introduction................................................................. 10
2. Planning in Postwar Japan (Review of
the L iterature).................................................. 12
3. Japanese Politics of Planning ........................... 16
4. Japan: State Autonomy and Planning . . . . 23
5. Bureaucratic Dominance of Japanese
Economic Planning .............................................. 30
II. A SHORT HISTORY OF JAPANESE ECONOMIC PLANNING ................... 36
1. Introduction................................................................. 36
1.1. Economic Planning as a Public Policy Issue . 36
1.2. Economic Planning Induced by International
F a cto rs................................................................... 37
1.3. Historical Basis of Bureaucratic Plan
Dominance............................................................... 37
1.4. Periodization of Japanese Economic
Planning................................................................... 38
2. Historical Antecedents ............................................ 39
2.1. Introduction................................................................. 39
2.2. Kogyo Iken—1884: Japan's First
Developmental Plan.............................................. 40
2.3. From Quasi War Economy to Controlled
Economy................................................................... 45
2.3.1. Introduction ................................................................. 45
2.3.2. Junsenji Keizai: Quasi War Economy . . . . 46
2.3.3. Tosel Keizai (Controlled Economy) ................... 56
3. Postwar Economic Planning .................................... 58
3.1. Introduction................................................................. 58
3.2. Post-Surrender Economic Plans (1945-1946) . 61
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Chapter Page
3.3. Economic Planning From 1946-1954 ....................... 64
3.3.1. Reconstruction Plans (1946-1949) ....................... 64
3.3.2. Economic Self-Support Plan (1949-1954) . . . 70
3.4. Japanese Economic Planning From 1955 to
the P resen t........................................................... 77
3.4.1. Introduction ................................................................. 77
3.4.2. Planning for Economic Self-Support .................. 79
3.4.3. Planning for High Economic Growth .................. 84
3.4.4. Planning for Balanced Economic Growth and
Social Development .............................................. 89
3.4.5. Planning in an Age of Scarcity........................... 94
III. STRUCTURE AND ORGANIZATION OF JAPANESE ECONOMIC
PLANNING........................................................................................ 101
1. Introduction................................................................ 101
2. Prime Minister........................................................... 104
2.1. Plan and Prime M inister...................................... 104
2.2. Prime Minister's Plan as Public Policy
Device....................................................................... 106
3. Economic Deliberation Council .......................... Ill
3.1. Introduction................................................................ Ill
3.2. Formal Organization ............................................... 115
3.3. Formal Structure ....................................................... 119
3.3.1. EDC-Chairman ................................................................ 119
3.3.2. Economic Interests ................................................... 121
3.3.3. Labor ............................................................................ 124
3.3.4. EDC-Subcommittees ............................. 126
4. Economic Planning Agency (EPA) .......................... 132
4.1. Introduction................................................................ 132
4.2. Institutional Development ................................... 132
4.3. Organizational Coherence and Functional
D iversity............................................................... 135
4.4. Economic Planning Function ................................... 139
4.5. Dienstwlssen: Power Basis of the EPA . . . 141
4.6. EPA's Position 1n the Economic Bureaucracy . 148
4.6.1. Political Determinants ........................................... 148
4.6.2. Organizational Determinants .............................. 150
4.6.3. Technical Determinants ........................................... 155
4.7. Sources of Bureaucratic Plan Dominance . . . 156
5. Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) .......................... 158
5.1. LDP and Plan................................................................ 158
5.2. Plan and Elections................................................... 160
IV. THE NATIONAL INCOME DOUBLING PLAN.......................................... 163
1. Prolegomenon to 1959 ............................................... 163
1.1. Introduction to the Theme................................... 163
1.2. Introduction to Major Players ........................... 164
iv
Chapter Page
1.2.1. Economic Bureaucracy ............................................... 164
1.2.2. Political Forces ........................................................ 168
1.2.3. Economic Forces ........................................................ 170
1.3. Plan Environment........................................................ 174
1.3.1. Institutional Factors ............................................ 174
1.3.2. Economic Factors ........................................................ 176
2. Kishi's Wage Doubling Plan................................... 177
2.1. Institutional Harbingers of the Income
Doubling P la n ....................................................... 177
2.2. Kishi's Third Cabinet—Motives and
Characteristics ................................................... 179
2.3. Politics, Economic Society and Gestation
of the P la n ........................................................... 184
2.4. ANPO and the Quell T h e s is ................................... 198
3. Ikeda Launches the Income Doubling Plan . . 199
3.1. Ikeda: A Politico Bio-Sketch ........................... 199
3.2. Ikeda's Conversion .................................................... 202
3.3. Struggle for Economic Growth ............................... 207
3.4. Ikeda's Positive Economic Policy ....................... 207
3.5. The Ministry of Finance and the Plan . . . . 211
4. Ikeda Launches the National Income Doubling
Plan........................................................................... 214
4.1. The Formulation of the National Income
Doubling P la n ....................................................... 214
4.2. Ikeda's New Policy .................................................... 217
4.3. December 27, 1960: Launching of the
Income Doubling Plan.......................................... 223
5. Aftercare of the National Income Doublinq
Plan............................. 228
5.1. Characteristics, Achievements and Failures
of the P la n ........................................................... 228
5.2. Request for Plan R evision................................... 231
5.3. Politics of Aftercare ............................................ 237
5.4. Ikeda's Pyrrhic Victory ........................................ 241
V. CONCLUDING SUMMARY ....................................................................... 246
1. Introduction................................................................. 246
2. Argumentation............................................................ 247
3. The Evidence................................................................. 251
3.1. Bureaucratic Dominance of Japanese
Planning................................................................... 251
3.2. National Income Doubling Plan ........................... 255
NOTES..................................................................................................................... 261
BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................................... 297
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