The Politics of Economic Adjustment: International Constraints, Distributive Conflicts, and the State PDF
Preview The Politics of Economic Adjustment: International Constraints, Distributive Conflicts, and the State
The Politics of Economic Adjustment The Politics of Economic Adjustment INTERNATIONAL CONSTRAINTS, D I S T R I B U T I VE CONFLICTS, AND T HE STATE Edited by Stephan Haggard and Robert R. Kaufman WITH CONTRIBUTIONS BY Peter Evans, Stephan Haggard and Robert R. Kaufman, Miles Kahler, Joan M. Nelson, Barbara Stallings, and John Waterbury PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY Copyright © 1992 by Princeton University Press Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540 In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, Chichester, West Sussex All Rights Reserved Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The Politics of economic adjustment : international constraints, distributive conflicts, and the state / edited by Stephan Haggard and Robert R. Kaufman ; with contributions by Peter Evans ... [et al.], p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Structural adjustment (Economic policy). 2. Economic stabilization. I. Haggard, Stephan. II. Kaufman, Robert R. III. Evans, Peter B., 1944- HD87.P65 1992 338.9-dc20 91-38423 CIP ISBN 0-691-04300-0 (alk. paper) — ISBN 0-691-00394-7 (pbk.: alk. paper) This book has been composed in Linotron Times Roman Princeton University Press books are printed on acid-free paper and meet the guidelines for permanence and durability of the Committee on Production Guidelines for Book Longevity of the Council on Library Resources Printed in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 Contents List of Figures and Tables vii Contributors ix Preface xi INTRODUCTION Institutions and Economic Adjustment 3 Stephan Haggard and Robert R. Kaufman PART I: International Constraints CHAPTER ONE International Influence on Economic Policy: Debt, Stabilization, and Structural Reform 41 Barbara Stallings CHAPTER TWO External Influence, Conditionality, and the Politics of Adjustment 89 Miles Kahler PART II: The State and the Politics of Adjustment CHAPTER THREE The State as Problem and Solution: Prédation, Embedded Autonomy, and Structural Change 139 Peter Evans CHAPTER FOUR The Heart of the Matter? Public Enterprise and the Adjustment Process 182 John Waterbury PART III: Distributive Politics CHAPTER FIVE Poverty, Equity, and the Politics of Adjustment 221 Joan M. Nelson vi • Contents CHAPTER SIX The Political Economy of Inflation and Stabilization in Middle- Income Countries 270 Stephan Haggard and Robert R. Kaufman PART IV: Conclusion CHAPTER SEVEN Economic Adjustment and the Prospects for Democracy 319 Stephan Haggard and Robert R. Kaufman Index 351 Figures and Tables FIGURES 2.1 Trends in Net Transfers to All Developing Countries, 1980-1987 106 2.2 Latin American and Caribbean Trends in Net Transfers, 1980-1987 106 2.3 Sub-Saharan African Trends in Net Transfers, 1980-1987 107 7.1 Sequences of Economic and Political Liberalization 333 TABLES 1.1 World Economic Indicators, 1960-1989 50 1.2 Net Flow of Foreign Capital to Third World Countries, 1961-1989 57 1.3 Debt Indicators: Weight of Debt and Arrears, 1980- 1988 63 1.4 International Monetary Fund Programs Approved, 1971-1990 70 1.5 Periodization of Stabilization Measures, 1980-1990 71 1.6 World Bank Adjustment Loans, 1980-1989 (millions) 78 2.1 Conditionally, Finance, and Policy Change 109 2.2 Government Commitment and Program Outcomes 115 A2.1 Adjustment Decisions and Implementation: A Rough Typology 134 A2.2 World Bank Policy-based Lending Cases 136 4.1 General Government and State-owned Enterprise Ex penditures as a Proportion of GDP: Egypt, India, Mex ico, and Turkey 195 4.2 Public Sector and Public Enterprise Deficits: Egypt, In dia, Mexico, and Turkey 196 5.1 Electoral Responses to Intensively Adjusting Govern ments 255 A5.1 Intensive Adjustment Countries: Annual Percentage Change in Real Government Expenditure Per Capita 261 A5.2 Selection of National Elections for Analysis 262 A5.3 Electoral Outcomes in Countries Undertaking Intensive Adjustment 263 A5.4 Economic Performance and Urban Popular Impact Indi cators 266 viii • List of Figures and Tables 6.1 Social and Economic Structure and Inflation in East Asia and Latin America 276 6.2 Cross-national Patterns of Inflation 282 6.3 Political Correlates of Stabilization: Moderate Inflation Cases 300 6.4 Political Correlates of Stabilization: High Inflation Cases 301 6.5 Political Correlates of Stabilization: Very High Inflation Cases 302 6.6 Party Fragmentation, Political Regimes, and Stabiliza tion 303 A6.1 Inflation Episodes 314 7.1 Economic Shocks and Regime Change in the 1980s 323 7.2 Regime Persistence and Change in the 1980s 325 Contributors PETER EVANS is professor of sociology at the University of California, Berkeley. He is coeditor of Bringing the State Back In (1985) and contin ues to do comparative research on the role of the state in industrial de velopment. STEPHAN HAGGARD is professor at the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of California, San Diego. He is the author of Pathways from the Periphery (1990) and coeditor with Tun-jen Cheng of Political Change in Taiwan (1992). He is currently working with Robert Kaufman on a project on the political economy of democratic transitions. MILES KAHLER is professor at the Graduate School of International Re lations and Pacific Studies, University of California, San Diego, and chairs the Committee on Foreign Policy Studies of the Social Science Research Council. He is the author of Decolonization in Britain and France: The Domestic Consequences of International Relations (1984); and editor of The Politics of International Debt (1988). ROBERT R. KAUFMAN is professor of political science at Rutgers Univer sity. He is the author of The Politics of Debt in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico: Economic Stabilization in the 1980s (1988), and coeditor with Barbara Stallings of Debt and Democracy in Latin America (1989). JOAN M. NELSON is senior associate at the Overseas Development Coun cil. She is author of Access to Power: Politics and the Urban Poor in De veloping Nations (1979); coauthor with Samuel Huntington of No Easy Choice: Political Participation in Developing Countries (1976); and the editor of the two previous volumes stemming from this research project, Fragile Coalitions: The Politics of Economic Adjustment (1990) and Eco nomic Crisis and Policy Choice: The Politics of Adjustment in the Third World (1990). BARBARA STALLINGS is professor of political science and former director of the Latin American Studies Program at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. She is the author of Class Conflict and Economic Development in Chile 1958-1973 (1978); Banker to the Third World: US. Portfolio Investment in Latin America, 1900-1986 (1987); and coeditor with Rob ert Kaufman of Debt and Democracy in Latin America (1989).
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