The Politics of Competence: Parties, Public Opinion and Vote

323 Pages·2017·5.956 MB·English

by  Jane Green

The Politics of Competence
Using decades of public opinion data from the US, UK, Australia,
Germany and Canada, and distinguishing between three concepts –
issue ownership, performance and generalised competence – Green
andJenningsshowhowpoliticalpartiescometogainorlose‘ownership’
of issues, how they are judged on their performance in government
acrosspolicyissues,andhowtheydevelopareputationforcompetence
(orincompetence)overaperiodinoffice.Theiranalysistracksthemajor
eventsthatleadpeopletore-evaluatepartyreputationsandthecostsof
governing,andcauseelectoratestopunishpartiesinpower.Theyreveal
why,whenandhowthesemovementsinpublicopinionmattertoelec-
tions.Theimplicationsareimportantforlong-standingdebatesabout
performance and partisanship, and reveal that public opinion about
party and governing competence is, to a great extent, the product of
majorshocksandpredictabledynamics.
Jane Green is Professor of Political Science at the University of
Manchester and a co-director of the British Election Study, the UK’s
leadingsourceofelectiondatasince1964.
WillJenningsisProfessorofPoliticalScienceandPublicPolicyatthe
UniversityofSouthampton.
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The Politics of Competence
Parties, Public Opinion and Voters
Jane Green
UniversityofManchester
Will Jennings
UniversityofSouthampton
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DOI:10.1017/9781316662557
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To Bruce and Natalie
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Contents
ListofTables pageviii
ListofFigures xii
Acknowledgements xv
1 Introduction 1
2 ConceptualProblemsandSolutions 27
3 ThreeConceptsofIssueCompetence 47
4 ExplainingIssueOwnershipChange 94
5 GovernmentPerformanceandOppositions 137
6 GeneralisedCompetenceandtheCostsofGoverning 167
7 Ownership,Performance,GeneralisedCompetence
andtheVote 197
8 Conclusion 234
Appendices 257
Bibliography 294
Index 306
vii
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Tables
2.1 Concepts,operationalisationandmeasures page45
3.1 Classificationofissuecategories 51
3.2 Issueownershipandownershipchange,USRepublican
Party 58
3.3 Issueownershipandownershipchange,USDemocratic
Party 59
3.4 Issueownershipandownershipchange,UKConservative
Party 60
3.5 Issueownershipandownershipchange,UKLabourParty 61
3.6 Issueownershipandownershipchange,AustralianLiberal
Party 62
3.7 Issueownershipandownershipchange,AustralianLabor
Party 63
3.8 Issueownershipandownershipchange,GermanChristian
DemocraticUnion 64
3.9 Issueownershipandownershipchange,GermanSocial
DemocraticParty 65
3.10 RankingofUSPresidentGeorgeW.Bushevaluationsby
RepublicanandDemocraticPartyidentifiers 71
3.11 RankingofUKConservativePartyevaluationsby
ConservativeandLabouridentifiers 73
3.12 Persistenceinperformanceevaluations,USPresident
GeorgeW.Bush 78
3.13 Persistenceinperformanceevaluations,candidatesforthe
RepublicanandDemocraticPartynominationforthe
USpresidency 80
3.14 Persistenceinperformanceevaluations,Labour
governmentandConservativeopposition,UK,2004–2010 80
3.15 Summarystatisticsformacro-competenceintheUnited
States,theUnitedKingdom,Germany,CanadaandAustralia 84
3.16 Grangercausationtestsbetweenmacro-competenceand
macro-partisanship,US 89
viii
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ListofTables ix
3.17 Grangercausationtestsbetweenmacro-competenceand
macro-partisanship,UK 90
3.18 Grangercausationtestsbetweenmacro-competence
andmacro-partisanship,Germany 90
4.1(a) Changesinissueownership,US,1976–2013 105
4.1(b) Changesinissueownership,UK,1970–2015 112
4.1(c) Changeinissueownership,Australia,1987–2013 117
4.1(d) Changesinissueownership,Germany,1972–2013 118
4.2 Casesofnochangeinissueownership 127
5.1 MeasuresofpolicyoutcomesintheUS,theUKand
Germany 142
5.2 Summarytableoflogisticregressionmodelsofvotechoice
in2005,2010and2015,UK 162
5.3 Summarytableoflogisticregressionmodelsofpresidential
votechoicein2000,2008and2012,US 164
6.1 Governingpartycompetenceasfunctionofoutgoingparty
competence 180
6.2 Theaveragelengthofhoneymoonperiodforgoverning
parties 182
6.3 Macro-competenceandgoverningpartyvote(negativity
biasandaccumulation) 187
6.4 ‘Coalitionofminorities’andgoverningpartyvote 191
7.1 Effectofeventsondynamicconditionalcorrelationwith
partysupport,RepublicanParty,US,1956–2012 227
7.2 Effectofeventsondynamicconditionalcorrelationwith
partysupport,ConservativeParty,UK,1968–2012 230
8.1 Summaryofconcepts,measures,theoryandimplications 246
A3.1 Summarystatisticsforissuehandling,USDemocratic
Party 257
A3.2 Summarystatisticsforissuehandling,UKConservative
Party 257
A3.3 RankingofratingsofHillaryClintonbypartyidentifiers,
non-partisansandrivalpartisans 258
A3.4 RankingofratingsofJohnEdwardsbypartyidentifiers,
non-partisansandrivalpartisans 258
A3.5 RankingofratingsofBarackObamabyparty
identifiers,non-partisansandrivalpartisans 258
A3.6 RankingofratingsofRudyGiulianibypartyidentifiers,
non-partisansandrivalpartisans 258
A3.7 RankingofratingsofJohnMcCainbypartyidentifiers,
non-partisansandrivalpartisans 259
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