The Politics and Economics of Regional Integration in Africa

317 Pages·2016·3.05 MB·English

by  Dawn Nagar

The Politics and Economics of Regional Integration in Africa:
A Comparative Study of COMESA and SADC, 1980–2015

Dawn Nagar
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD.)
(Student No. 687887)

Supervisor: Professor Gilbert M. Khadiagala
Department of International Relations
School of Social Sciences
Faculty of Humanities
University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
Table of Contents
Contents
Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................. 1
Dedication ........................................................................................................................................ 5
Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................................... 6
Abstract ............................................................................................................................................ 7
Declaration ....................................................................................................................................... 8
List of Abbreviations and Acronyms ............................................................................................... 9
Chapter 1 ........................................................................................................................................ 17
Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 17
1. Purpose and Objectives of the Thesis .................................................................................... 17
1.1 Research questions ............................................................................................................... 23
1.2 Thesis Methodology ............................................................................................................. 24
1.2.1 Structured interviews and analysis .................................................................................... 27
1.3 Outline of the thesis .............................................................................................................. 28
Chapter 2 ........................................................................................................................................ 32
Literature Review: Theoretical and Conceptual Framework ......................................................... 32
2.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 32
2.2 Situating regional integration within the divergence and convergence debate .................... 32
2.2.1 International relations and regional integration theory: divergence and convergence ...... 33
2.2.2 Dependency theories ......................................................................................................... 48
2.3 Neoclassical economics: divergence and convergence ........................................................ 52
2.3.1 Market-driven trade liberalisation and economic growth ................................................. 57
2.3.2 Free trade agreements and Intra-regional trade: divergence and convergence ................. 61
2.3.3 Macroeconomic policies – divergence and convergence .................................................. 67
2.4 Multiple memberships: divergence and convergence .......................................................... 71
2.5 Neoclassical realism approach: Security .............................................................................. 74
2.6 New concepts and definitions .............................................................................................. 81
2.6.1 Neoclassical economic regional integration ...................................................................... 81
2.6.2 Neorealist security convergence ........................................................................................ 82
Chapter 3 ........................................................................................................................................ 84
Historical Overview: SADC and COMESA .................................................................................. 84
3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 84
3.2 Pan-Africanism ..................................................................................................................... 84
3.3 The front line states and the making of an alliance .............................................................. 85
3.3.1 Political and economic courtship - Policy of détente .................................................... 88
3.3.2 The FLS and external actors .......................................................................................... 92
3.4 The formation of SADCC .................................................................................................... 96
Figure 3.1: SADCC’s agricultural exports to the rest of the world 1985 to 1989. .................. 100
3.5 SADC institutional architecture ......................................................................................... 101
Figure 3.2: SADC’s restructuring and organogram. ................................................................ 109
3.5.1 Funding SADCC and SADC ....................................................................................... 110
3.6 Formation of the PTA ........................................................................................................ 117
Table 3.1: PTA: Countries: Main Economic Indicators, 1987 ................................................ 118
3.7. COMESA’s institutional architecture ............................................................................... 123
3.8 Rationalisation of SADCC and PTA .................................................................................. 126
Table 3.2: Composition of Manufacturing Value Added (MVA), 1987. ................................. 127
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Figure 3.3: SADCC’s agricultural exports to South Africa 1989 ............................................ 129
Table 3.3: South Africa’s regional trade, 1984 (million rand) ................................................. 131
Table 3.4: South Africa’s leading export markets in Africa, 1990 .......................................... 132
Table 3.5: South Africa’s Trade To the Rest of the World, 1990 (US$ millions) ................... 133
3.9 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 145
Chapter 4 ...................................................................................................................................... 149
The Era of Convergence: COMESA and SADC’s 2008 Tripartite Partnership Agreement ...... 149
4.1 Chapter overview ............................................................................................................... 149
4.2 The period: 1998-2008 ....................................................................................................... 151
4.3 States, markets, developmental integration and convergence: 1998-2008 ........................ 156
Figure 4.1: 2008 bilateral contracts in SAPP. .......................................................................... 157
Table 4.1 SAPP’s Planned regional generation projects commissioned and funded up until
2017 .......................................................................................................................................... 158
Figure 4.2: Growth in micro-regions: Mozambique and South Africa. ................................... 160
Figure 4.3: Major sugar producers in COMESA and SADC ................................................... 166
Figure 4.4: Sugar industry of direct employment (both COMESA and SADC member states)
.................................................................................................................................................. 167
4.4 Diplomatic efforts of the main summits and meetings during the period 1998-2008 ........ 169
4.5 Diplomatic Efforts: At and after the 2008 Tripartite Summit, 20 October 2008,
Kampala, Uganda: Towards a Grand FTA ............................................................................... 172
4.5.1 Progress of the Tripartite MOU .................................................................................. 174
4.5.2 Regional infrastructure development .......................................................................... 174
Figure 4.5: Overview of air markets of member states of COMESA, EAC, and SADC (2011).
.................................................................................................................................................. 175
Figure 4.6: COMESA-EAC-SADC 2013 Total economic impact stimulated by airspace market
liberalisation. ............................................................................................................................ 176
4.5.3 Merger of one REC and progress of the roadmap ....................................................... 177
4.5.4 Efforts towards the establishment of a Grand Free Trade Area .................................. 180
4.6 Regional transport master plan ........................................................................................... 184
4.7 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 189
Chapter 5 ...................................................................................................................................... 191
Management of Multiple Memberships of COMESA and SADC ............................................... 191
5.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 191
5.2 Management of multiple memberships .............................................................................. 193
Table 5.1: Membership in RECs and FTAs in the Tripartite bloc ........................................... 194
5.3 Variable Geometry and the Tripartite bloc ........................................................................ 197
5.4 Rules of Origin and external trade agreements: AGOA and EPAs .................................... 202
Figure 5.1: Major partners of COMESA and South Africa with AGOA market in 2013 ....... 203
Figure 5.2: Five top export commodities from AGOA to COMESA in 2013 ......................... 205
Figure 5.3: Major export goods in 2013 from COMESA to AGOA........................................ 206
5.5 Regional arrangements in multiple memberships: Hindrance or promotion? .................... 208
Figure 5.4. SACU trade as a percentage of GDP, 2005–2013 ................................................. 212
Figure 5.5: Total trade of SACU member states, 2005–2013 .................................................. 213
Figure 5.6. Trade growth of SACU member states, 2005–2012 .............................................. 214
Figure 5.7. Trade growth convergence of Botswana and South Africa, 2005–2012. .............. 215
Figure 5.8 Trade growth convergence of Lesotho and South Africa, 2005–2012 ................... 215
Figure 5.9. Trade growth convergence of Namibia and South Africa, 2005–12. .................... 216
Figure 5.10.Trade growth convergence of Swaziland and South Africa, 2005–2012 ............. 216
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5.5.1 Management of multiple memberships by member states: The Case of South Africa in
SACU ................................................................................................................................... 217
Figure 5.11: Total GDP of BLNS member states, 2005–2013 ................................................ 218
Figure 5.12. South Africa’s total trade with BRICS states, 2010–2014 .................................. 221
5.6 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 224
Chapter 6 ...................................................................................................................................... 227
Security Cooperation .................................................................................................................... 227
6.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 227
6.2 Regional Security Complex Framework: Evolving domestic actors and factors ............... 228
Figure 6.1: Smuggling by transnational organised crime syndicates from Eastern DRC to
criminal groups, companies or individuals in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi ....................... 234
6.3. Neorealist security convergence ........................................................................................ 237
Table 6.1: State interventions in conflict areas from 2008–2013 ........................................... 240
Figure 6.2 COMESA profile .................................................................................................... 241
6.4 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 245
Chapter 7 ...................................................................................................................................... 248
Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 248
7.1 Overview of thesis .............................................................................................................. 248
7.2 Conceptualisation of chapters and findings ....................................................................... 251
7.3 Key policy recommendations ............................................................................................. 263
7.3.1 Rules of origin (ROO) ................................................................................................. 263
7.3.2 Total Factor Productivity (TFP) .................................................................................. 263
7.3.3 Protecting Tripartite member states’ industries is much more than just variable
geometry, free trade, and the principle of acquis ................................................................. 264
7.4 Final word .......................................................................................................................... 267
Bibliography ................................................................................................................................. 269
List of Figures .............................................................................................................................. 315
Figure 3.1: SADCC’s agricultural exports to the rest of the world 1985 to 1989. ...................... 315
Figure 3.2: SADC’s restructuring and organogram. Source: SADC Secretariat ......................... 315
Figure 3.3: SADCC’s agricultural exports to South Africa 1989 ................................................ 315
Figure 4.1: 2008 bilateral contracts in SAPP ............................................................................... 315
Figure 4.2: Growth in micro-regions: Mozambique and South Africa. ....................................... 315
Figure 4.3: Major sugar producers in COMESA and SADC ....................................................... 315
Figure 4.4: Sugar industry of direct employment (both COMESA and SADC member states) .. 315
Figure 4.5: Overview of air markets of member states of COMESA, EAC, and SADC (2011 .. 315
Figure 4.6: COMESA-EAC-SADC 2013 Total economic impact stimulated by
airspace market liberalisation. ...................................................................................................... 315
Figure 5.1: Major partners of COMESA and South Africa with AGOA market in 2013 ........... 315
Figure 5.2: Five top export commodities from AGOA to COMESA in 2013 ............................. 315
Figure 5.3: Major export goods in 2013 from COMESA to AGOA............................................ 315
Figure 5.4: SACU trade as a percentage of GDP, 2005–2013 ..................................................... 315
Figure 5.5: Total trade of SACU member states, 2005–2013 ...................................................... 315
Figure 5.6: Trade growth of SACU member states, 2005–2012 .................................................. 315
Figure 5.7: Trade growth convergence of Botswana and South Africa, 2005–2012 ................... 315
Figure 5.8: Trade growth convergence of Lesotho and South Africa, 2005–2012 ...................... 315
Figure 5.9: Trade growth convergence of Namibia and South Africa, 2005–12. ........................ 315
Figure 5.10: Trade growth convergence of Swaziland and South Africa, 2005–2012 ................ 315
Figure 5.11: Total GDP of BLNS member states, 2005–2013 .................................................... 315
Figure 5.12: South Africa’s total trade with BRICS states, 2010–2014 ...................................... 315
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Figure 6.1: Smuggling by transnational organised crime syndicates from Eastern
DRC to criminal groups, companies or individuals in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi ................ 315
Figure 6.2: COMESA profile ....................................................................................................... 315
List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ 316
Table 3.1: PTA: Countries: Main Economic Indicators, 1987 .................................................... 316
Table 3.2: Composition of Manufacturing Value Added (MVA) ................................................ 316
Table 3.3: South Africa’s regional trade, 1984 ............................................................................ 316
Table 3.4: South Africa’s leading export markets in Africa, 1990 .............................................. 316
Table 3.5: South Africa’s Trade To the Rest of the World, 1990 ................................................ 316
Table 4.1 SAPP’s Planned regional generation projects commissioned and funded up
until 2017 ...................................................................................................................................... 316
Table 5.1: Membership in RECs and FTAs in the Tripartite bloc ............................................... 316
Table 6.1: State interventions in conflict areas from 2008–2013 ................................................ 316

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Dedication

This thesis is dedicated to my Mother, Elaine Florence Jampies Nagar for her tremendous efforts
toward my education; and to my Father, Davidson Bhana Nagar who taught me about politics.
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Acknowledgements

I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my Supervisor, Professor Gilbert M. Khadiagala
for his tremendous knowledge, and incredible support afforded to me during this degree, as
without his supervision and guidance, this study would not have reached completion. I am also
deeply thankful to my organisation, Centre for Conflict Resolution (CCR) for sponsoring my
degree and affording me the time to undertake this study. I am most grateful to my daughters,
Simóne, Danielle, Marcel, and Nina who have supported me throughout this process. I would like
to say a special thank you to our Heavenly Father and Almighty God for helping me complete
this degree.

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Abstract
This thesis examines the efforts of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and
the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to promote regional integration between 1980
and 2015 in the areas of trade and security. The conceptual framework provides a focused review of
general and specific literature on two key concepts of regional integration: divergence, and convergence.
Throughout the thesis, the core focus is on the divergence and convergence of COMESA and SADC.
The thesis articulates two analytical frameworks: the neoclassical economics approach, and the
neoclassical realist approach. A historical account focuses on the history of the Preferential Trade
Agreement (PTA) of 1981 that evolved into COMESA by 1993. A history of Southern Africa’s Frontline
States (FLS), which evolved into the Southern African Development Coordination Conference (SADCC)
in 1980, and later into SADC in 1992, is then provided. The thesis discusses apartheid South Africa’s
involvement in the

Eastern and Southern African regions. The thesis provides a discussion on the debate on the rationalisation
processes of these two organisations: COMESA and SADC, between 1991 and 1997. The thesis next
expands on the regionalisation processes of COMESA and SADC between 2008 and 2015. The main
actors and factors assessed involve South Africa’s market-led regional approach, its regional
developmental role and its economic impact on both regions since it joined SADC in 1994. The thesis
expands on the two main regional integration approaches adopted by the COMESA–EAC (East African
Community)–SADC Tripartite bloc (created in 2008) of variable geometry and trade liberalisation, as it
moved towards its Tripartite Free Trade Area that was signed in June 2015.

The thesis also provides definitions and assumptions of two new theories deployed to strengthen
the research: i) neoclassical economic regional integration, and ii) neorealist security
convergence, which are applied in the thesis. The thesis thus expands on how COMESA and SADC
(as both institution and member states) manage multiple memberships. A central argument of the thesis is
that multiple memberships have become a stumbling block for convergence. In furtherance of this
argument, the thesis explains the benefits of regional integration schemes. Therefore assessed, is how
developing countries are likely to be better served by “North–South” than by “South–South” free trade
agreements. The analysis is expanded by a discussion of economic convergence in the neoclassical
economic approach of open trade in regional trade agreements within the Southern African Customs
Union (SACU) – whose five members all belong to SADC - with the presence of a regional hegemonic
state: South Africa. To further expand the concept of regionalism to encompass security cooperation, the
thesis finally assesses COMESA and SADC’s managing of regional security since the 2008 Tripartite
Agreement, by employing the concept of regional security complexes.
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Declaration

I declare that the work in this thesis is my own work and has not been produced elsewhere. It is
being submitted for the award of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations, in
the Department of International Relations, School of Social Sciences, Faculty of Humanities,
University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa. To the best of my knowledge, it
has not been submitted before for any degree or examination in any other university.

Name: Dawn Isabel Nagar
D Nagar
Signature: Date: 18 July 2016.

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List of Abbreviations and Acronyms

AAF–SAP Structural Adjustment Programme for Socio-Economic Recovery and Transformation
ACIRC African Capacity for Immediate Response to Crises
ACP African Caribbean and Pacific Group of States
ACRF African Crisis Response Force
ADF-NALU Allied Democratic Forces – National Army for the Liberation of Uganda
AEC African Economic Community
AfDB African Development Bank
AGOA African Growth and Opportunity Act
AHI Afrikaanse Handelsinstituut
AMU Arab Maghreb Union
ANC African National Congress
ARF African Renaissance and International Cooperation Fund
ARTIN African Regional Transport Infrastructure Network
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations
ASYCUDA Automated data management system
AU African Union
β beta-convergence
BLNS Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland
CAP Common Agriculture Policy
CCR Centre for Conflict Resolution
CEMAC Central African Economic and Monetary Community
CEN–SAD Community of Sahel-Saharan States
CEOs Chief Executive Officers
CEWARN Conflict Early Warning
CFTA Continental Free Trade Area
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