The Politics and Diplomacy of the Soviet Withdrawal from Af

305 Pages·2014·10.14 MB·English

The London School of Economics and Political
Science
A Long Goodbye: The Politics and Diplomacy of the
Soviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan, 1980-1992
Artemy Mikhail Kalinovsky
A thesis submitted to the Department of International
History of the London School of Economics for the
degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, July 2009
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UMI Number: U615706
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Declaration
I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of
the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other
than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent
of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it).
The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted,
provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced
without the prior written consent of the author.
I warrant that this authorization does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of
any third party.
Abstract
This thesis explores the politics and diplomacy of Soviet efforts to withdraw its
troops from Afghanistan. Although Soviet leaders began looking for a way out of
the conflict soon after the introduction of Soviet troops in December 1979, the
war dragged on because Moscow was afraid of the damage that a failure in
Afghanistan could do to itsTeputatioiTas a leader ot the communist world and a
Supporter of national liberation movements in the Third World. Even as Soviet
diplomats engaged in international diplomacy in an effort to secure an agreement
for a withdrawal, Moscow looked for ways to stabilise its client government in
Kabul. This characterised Soviet policy in the region from 1979 onward, not only
under the leadership of Leonid Brezhnev and Yuri Andropov, but even under the
reform-minded Mikhail Gorbachev.
In addition to providing a detailed study of an important and often-misinterpreted
conflict, the thesis also situates the Soviet intervention within the growing body of
scholarship seeking to understand the Cold War in global context, particularly
with regard to the Third World. Thus the thesis focuses on the broader
international dimensions of Soviet efforts in Afghanistan, particularly the
relationship between the United States and the Soviet Union, while also showing
that communist leaders in Afghanistan were often able to manipulate Soviet
decision-making in support of their own internal rivalries. The thesis argues that
ongoing Soviet involvement in Afghanistan in the 1980s must be seen in the
context of the Kremlin’s official commitment to the Third World, despite the
associated difficulties of such a policy.
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“The day you get in and the day you get out.”
-Avon Barksdale
Acknowledgements
Many debts are accumulated when one takes on a project like this. I would like to thank,
first and foremost, my supervisors, Professor Anita Prazmowska and Professor Arne
Westad. At George Washington University I was fortunate to have teachers who
encouraged me to pursue graduate work and have provided commentary and advice on
this project as it evolved; they are Professor Muriel Atkin, Professor James Hershberg,
Professor Hope Harisson, and Dr. Svetlana Savranskaya. A number of people in the
LSE Department of International History and beyond read chapters and provided
invaluable advice and support along the way; they are Dr. Paul Keenan, Dr. Tanya
Harmer, Dr. Sergei Radchenko, Dr. Arne Hofmann, Tom Field, Vladimir Unkovski-
Korica, Brian Becker, and Taylor Asen. The Cold War Studies Centre/LSE IDEAS has
been a home over the last three years, and I would like in particular to thank Jeff Byme,
Lisa Aranson, and the Missile Defence Research Project at Columbia House.
In Moscow Evgeny Golynkin and Alla Nikolaevna provided warm meals and a
welcoming home during my research trips. A number of people assisted with locating
sources and helping me reach interviewees, including Professor Vladimir Pechatnov,
Professor Vladimir Shubin, and Professor Natalia Kapitonova. This project would have
been impossible without the help of General Aleksandr Liakhovsky, who has done more
than anyone to record the history of the Soviet war. Sadly he passed away in February
2009, a week before the 20th anniversary of the Soviet withdrawal.
At the end of the day this project would not have been possible without the support and
encouragement of those closest to me, and so it is my grandmother, my family, and
Dayna I must thank, for thinking this was a good idea and reminding me of the same
when I found it hard to believe, and for much much more.
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Abbreviations
cc Central Committee
CDSP Current Digest of the Soviet Press
CPSU Communist Party of the Soviet Union
CRA Council of Religious Affairs (USSR)
DRA Democratic Republic of Afghanistan
DYOA Democratic Youth Organization of Afghanistan
GARF State Archive of the Russian Federation
GFA Gorbachev Foundation Archives
GRU Main Intelligence Directorate (Soviet military intelligence)
KGB Committee of State Security (USSR)
KhAD State Information Services (DRA)
INF Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces
PDPA People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan
RA Republic of Afghanistan
RGAE Russian State Archive of the Economy
RGANI Russian State Archive of Contemporary History
SALT Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty
SAM Surface to Air Missile
UNGOMAP United Nations Good Offices Mission in Afghanistan and
Pakistan
WAD Ministry of State Security
Table of Contents
List of Illustrations.................................................................................................7
Introduction.............................................................................................................11
Historiography................................................................................13
Sources............................................................................................27
Thesis structure...............................................................................31
Background to the invasion...........................................................34
Chapter 1 Counter-insurgency and “nation-building”
in Afghanistan, 1980-1985..............................................46
Entrapment......................................................................................47
Propaganda and limited diplomatic approaches.........................56
Efforts for stabilization within Afghanistan................................61
Opposition to the intervention within the Soviet Elite.............68
Towards a UN role.........................................................................74
Chapter 2 New Thinking, Old Commitments:
Gorbachev and the Afghan W ar.................................87
Old Commitments and New Political Thinking.........................89
A decision to withdraw, but not a plan........................................96
Fighting a limited war....................................................................105
Social effects of the war.................................................................116
Chapter 3 Reforming Counterinsurgency: The Replacement of Karmal
and the National Reconciliation Campaign, 1986-87...........127
Exit Karmal, Enter Najib...............................................................129
National Reconciliation: A New Approach................................136
A return to diplomacy. ...................................................................147
Disappointment..................................................................................153
Chapter 4 Superpower Relations and the Geneva Accords...........................164
The US-Soviet Relationship and Afghanistan................................165
Initiatives and Concessions...............................................................172
Towards the Geneva Accords...........................................................182
Chapter 5 Politics and Diplomacy During the Withdrawal............................195
Making the best of the Geneva Accords:
The Moscow Summit and after..............................................196
The KGB and Najibullah, the military and Massoud......................206
Prolonging the agony............................................................................218
Back over the Friendship Bridge.........................................................225
Chapter 6 Aid, Politics and Diplomacy after the Withdrawal.........................233
Setting a precedent for non-intervention:
the battle for Jalalabad..............................................................235
Continuing diplomatic efforts: UN, Pakistan, and the US...............244
Dealing with the home front.................................................................254
Towards the final collapse.......................................... 260
Conclusion.......................................................................................................................260
Bibliography.....................................................................................................................290
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List of Maps
Map 1: Political map of Afghanistan, 1986......................................8
Map 2: Ethnolinguistic Groups in Afghanistan................................9
Map 3: General Concept and Scheme of Soviet Withdrawal........10
7
Map 1: Political map of Afghanistan, 1986
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Source: Perry-Castaneda Library Afghanistan Map Collection, University of Texas at
Austin http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle east and asia/afghanistan rel86.jpg
(Accessed July 23, 2009)