The political economy of refugee migration and foreign aid

220 Pages·2009·2.34 MB·English

by  Mathias Czaika

The Political Economy of Refugee
Migration and Foreign Aid

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The Political Economy of
Refugee Migration and
Foreign Aid
Mathias Czaika

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© Mathias Czaika 2009
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this
publication may be made without written permission.
No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted
save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the
Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence
permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency,
Saffron House, 6-10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS.
Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication
may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.
The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this
work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
First published 2009 by
PALGRAVE MACMILLAN
Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited,
registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke,
Hampshire RG21 6XS.
Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin’s Press LLC,
175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010.
Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies
and has companies and representatives throughout the world.
Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States,
the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries.
ISBN-13: 978–0–230–57688–9 hardback
ISBN-10: 0–230–57688–5 hardback
This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully
managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing
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country of origin.
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.
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Printed and bound in Great Britain by
CPI Antony Rowe, Chippenham and Eastbourne
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This work is dedicated to those who currently live as refugees
and asylum seekers in desperate situations around the globe,
whether living in a camp, a retention centre or somewhere
else, but certainly in insecurity and fear.
May your voices be heard and your prayers answered.

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Contents
List of Tables ix
List of Figures xi
Abbreviations xii
Acknowledgements xiv
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Research objective 1
1.2 Research outline 5
2 Forced Migration Patterns and Politics 10
2.1 Introduction 10
2.2 Migration characteristics 11
2.3 International actors for refugee protection 16
2.4 Refugee Politics 19
3 International Refugee Burdens 25
3.1 Introduction 25
3.2 Assessing the refugee burden to host countries 26
3.3 Methodology of a refugee burden index 30
3.4 Concluding remarks 40
4 Determinants of Forced Displacement:
The Case of Aceh, Indonesia 43
4.1 Introduction 44
4.2 Conflict history and displacement in Aceh, Indonesia 46
4.3 Theoretical background of displacements 50
4.4 Empirical analysis of displacement in Aceh 52
4.5 Concluding remarks 65
5 The Political Economy of Refugee Migration 67
5.1 Introduction 67
5.2 The Model 70
5.3 Counter-asylum policies 77
5.4 Concluding remarks 87
vii
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viii Contents
6 Asylum Cooperation among Asymmetric Countries 88
6.1 Introduction 88
6.2 Literature review 90
6.3 The analytical framework 94
6.4 Asylum cooperation in the European Union 104
6.5 Concluding remarks 112
7 Refugee Movements and Aid Politics 114
7.1 Introduction 114
7.2 Aid and refugee migration policies 115
7.3 Aid allocation patterns and statistics 118
7.4 UN diplomacy and aid allocation 123
7.5 Concluding remarks 129
8 Aid Allocation and Asylum Migration 131
8.1 Introduction 131
8.2 Aid allocation literature review 132
8.3 The model 135
8.4 Comparative statics 137
8.5 Empirical evidence 138
8.6 Concluding remarks 144
9 Refugee Movements and Aid Responsiveness 146
9.1 Introduction 146
9.2 Refugee movements: some policy options 148
9.3 Empirical analysis 151
9.4 Concluding remarks 162
10 Conclusion 164

10.1 Summary 164
10.2 Policy implications 166
Appendix 170
Notes 181
Bibliography 192
Index 203
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Tables
2.1 I nternational migration stocks (2005) and
flows (2000–05), in 1000 12
3.1 Correlation matrix of the RCI components 33
3.2 Top 20 burdened countries in 2003 37
3.3 T op 5 intra-regionally most burdened countries
in 2003 38
3.4 Inter-regional Refugee Burden Index in 2003 40
3.5 I nter-regional Refugee Burden Matrix
(gross/net stocks) in 2003 41
4.1 C onflict and population change in
the Aceh sample, 1999–2002 54
4.2 Probit estimation: conflict incidence 58
4.3 Determinants of change in village population 60
4.4 Quantile regressions of population change 61
4.5 D eterminants of population change by
conflict occurrence 62
5.1 Simulation: aid transfers and refugee migration 85
6.1 Asylum cooperation: equal population quota, EU-27 108
6.2 Asylum cooperation: equal economic burdens, EU-27 110
7.1 Sector composition of total ODA grants, 3-year average 122
7.2 Bilateral and multilateral aid allocation 127
7.3 Bilateral donor-specific coefficients 128

8.1 B ivariate correlates of German ODA and
explanatory variables 141
8.2 G erman aid allocation 142
9.1 A id allocation determinants, 1992–2003, 18 donors,
148 recipients 157
9.2 Categorization of aid donors 160
A.1 Specifications of the Refugee Capacity Index 170
A.2 Descriptive statistics, Aceh sample 171
A.3 Derivations of the refugee migration model 173
A.4 Descriptive statistics, EU-27 174
A.5 Descriptive statistics, UN speeches sample 175
A.6 Data description and sources, UN speeches sample 175
ix
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