The Political Economy of Evaluation: International Aid Agencies and the Effectiveness of Aid

257 Pages·1994·22.67 MB·English

by  Jerker Carlsson

INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL ECONOMY SERIES
General Editor: Timothy M. Shaw, Professor of Political Science and International
Development Studies, and Director of the Centre for Foreign Policy Studies,
Dalhousie University, Nova Scotia, Canada
Recent titles include:
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ECONOMIC SANCTION
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POST-SOCIALIST WORLD ORDERS
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POLITICAL DIMENSIONS OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEBT CRISIS
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INDEBTED DEVELOPMENT
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ECONOMIC REFORM AND THIRD-WORLD SOCIALISM
The Political Economy
of Evaluation
International Aid Agencies
and the Effectiveness of Aid
J erker Carlsson
Department of Economics
University of Gothenburg, Sweden
Gunnar Kohlin
Department of Economics
University ofG othenburg, Sweden
Anders Ekbom
Department of Economics
University of Gothenburg, Sweden
M
St. Martin's Press
© Jerker Carlsson, Gunnar Kohlin and Anders Ekbom 1994
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First published in Great Britain 1994 by
THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD
Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS
and London
Companies and representatives
throughout the world
A catalogue record for this book is available
from the British Library.
ISBN 978-0-333-59027-0 ISBN 978-1-349-23206-2 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-23206-2
First published in the United States of America 1994 by
Scholarly and Reference Division,
ST. MARTIN'S PRESS, INC.,
175 Fifth Avenue,
New York, N.Y. 10010
ISBN 978-0-312-09992-3 (cloth)
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Carlsson, Jerker, 1950-
The political economy of evaluation : international aid agencies
and the effectiveness of aid I Jerker Carlsson, Gunnar Kohlin,
Anders Ekbom.
p. em.-(International political economy series)
Includes index.
ISBN 978-0-312-09992-3 (cloth)
I. Economic assistance-Developing countries-Evaluation.
2. Economic development projects-Developing countries-Evaluation.
I. Kohlin, Gunnar. II. Ekbom, Anders. Ill. Title. IV. Series.
HC60.C2945 1994
338.9'1'091724-dc20 93-17296
CIP
Contents
List of Tables vii
List of Figures ix
Acknowledgements X
1 Introduction 1
1.1 The Problem 2
1.2 Outlining the Book 6
2 Concepts 9
2.1 About Evaluations 9
2.2 Economic Analysis: The Concepts and their
Application II
2.3 Towards an Understanding of the Organization 31
3 Mapping the Terrain of the Case Studies 42
3.1 On the Logical Framework 42
3.2 About the Case Studies 44
3.3 The Model 47
4 The Gold Mines of Nicaragua 50
4.1 The Political Economy of Nicaragua 50
4.2 The History of the Project 55
4.3 The Focal Problem of the Project 57
4.4 Project Objectives 60
4.5 Evaluation of Project Performance 61
4.6 Conclusions 75
5 Non-Project Aid: The Case of Commodity Import Support 78
5.1 Introduction to the Case 78
5.2 Background 78
5.3 The Rationale for CIS 79
5.4 CIS in an International Perspective 79
v
vi Contents
5.5 The Problem Addressed by CIS 80
5.6 Evaluating CIS: the Historical Record 84
5.7 Decisions and Assessments of CIS 102
5.8 The Impact of CIS: Conclusions 105
6 Soil Conservation in Kenya 109
6.1 Introduction 109
6.2 The History of the Programme 110
6.3 The Evaluation Function 122
6.4 The Costs and Benefits of Soil Conservation 129
6.5 Conclusions 142
7 How the World Bank Went Green 145
7.1 The Role of Economic Analysis in World Bank
Project Assessment 145
7.2 Adaptations due to External Pressure 149
7.3 The World Bank and Environmental Economic
Analysis: Concluding Remarks 172
8 Final Analysis 175
8.1 On Organization 176
8.2 On the Formulation of Objectives 186
8.3 On the Usefulness of Economic Analysis 189
8.4 The Lack of Knowledge 196
8.5 Improving the Use of Economic Analysis? 197
8.6 'It Takes Two to Tango' 203
Notes and References 205
Bibliography 226
Index 233
List of Tables and Figures
Tables
2.1 Possible Attitudes towards Evaluation of Different
Interest Groups 34
4.1 Macro-Economic Indicators in Nicaragua, 1978-89 51
4.2 Macro-Economic Development in Nicaragua, 1988-90 51
4.3 Annual US Dollar Exchange Rates, 1980--87 52
4.4 Foreign Exchange Balance, El Limon and La Libertad,
1989/90-1991/92 66
4.5 Performance Indicators, El Limon, 1987 69
4.6 Sensitivity of the Net Foreign Exchange Earnings 71
6.1 Base Case: Catchment Costs and Benefits for 1990
(per ha at normal rainfall) 134
6.2 Net Present Value with Sensitivity Analysis 142
7.1 Variety, Endemism and Vulnerability of some Species in
Madagascar 153
Figures
1.1 Reality, Case Studies and Analytical Tools 7
2.1 Direction of Analytical Focus 29
2.2 The Links between PEA, MEA and CBA 30
2.3 Personal Interests 33
3.1 The Model 48
4.1 Real Monthly Exchange Rates, 1988-89 53
4.2 Sectoral Composition of GDP, 1980--89 54
4.3 Nicaraguan Gold Production, 1980--89 56
4.4 The Problem Tree 58
4.5 The Objectives Tree 62
4.6 The Hypotheses 75
5.1 The Problem Tree of CIS 82
5.2 The Objectives Tree of CIS 86
5.3 External Flows as a Percentage of GNP, Tanzania,
1981-89 95
5.4 Investment and Savings as a Percentage of GNP,
Tanzania, 1981-89 96
vii
Vlll List of Tables and Figures
5.5 The Changing Structure of CIS 103
5.6 The Hypotheses 105
6.1 The Problem Tree of a Soil Conservation Programme in
Kenya 112
6.2 The Objectives Tree of a Soil Conservation Programme
in Kenya 114
6.3 Interdependent Causal Factors of Soil Erosion 118
6.4 Network of Actors in the Programme, 1974-80 123
6.5 Network of Actors in the Programme, 19800-92 125
6.6 Public Expenditures on Sites A and B, 1986-92 140
6.7 The Hypotheses 143
7.1 Problem Tree of an Environmental Project in
Madagascar 156
7.2 Objectives Tree of an Environmental Project in
Madagascar 158
7.3 Types of GEF Projects 171
7.4 The Hypotheses 173
8.1 The Hypotheses in the Case Studies 175
8.2 The Use of Economic Analysis 198
Acknowledgements
The authors are very grateful to the Swedish International Develop
ment Authority (SIDA) for its financial support of the research project
which made this book possible. We are also indebted to the partici
pants of the seminars on this topic that have been held at the
Department of Economics, Gothenburg University, especially to
Professor Arne Bigsten who has followed the project and commented
extensively on its content. We would also like to thank Professor
Timothy M. Shaw, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Professor Lars
Herlitz, Department of Economic History, Gothenburg University,
Dr Kim Forss, ANDANTE AB, and Mattias Iweborg for valuable
comments and insights. Needless to say the views expressed in this
book are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily coincide
with any of the individuals and institutions mentioned above.
]ERKER CARLSSON
GUNNAR K6HLIN
ANDERS EKBOM
IX