THE PLA AT HOME AND ABROAD: ASSESSING THE OPERATIONAL CAPABILITIES OF CHINA’S MILITARY Roy Kamphausen David Lai Andrew Scobell Editors June 2010 Visit our website for other free publication downloads http://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/ To rate this publication click here. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of De- fense, or the U.S. Government. Authors of Strategic Stud- ies Institute (SSI) publications enjoy full academic freedom, provided they do not disclose classified information, jeop- ardize operations security, or misrepresent official U.S. policy. Such academic freedom empowers them to offer new and sometimes controversial perspectives in the inter- est of furthering debate on key issues. This report is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited. ***** This publication is subject to Title 17, United States Code, Sec- tions 101 and 105. It is in the public domain and may not be copy- righted. ***** Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 122 Forbes Ave, Carlisle, PA 17013-5244. ***** All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publications may be downloaded free of charge from the SSI website. Hard cop- ies of this report may also be obtained free of charge by plac- ing an order on the SSI website. The SSI website address is: www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil. ***** The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail newsletter to update the national security community on the re- search of our analysts, recent and forthcoming publications, and upcoming conferences sponsored by the Institute. Each newslet- ter also provides a strategic commentary by one of our research analysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, please subscribe on the SSI website at www.StrategicStudiesInstitute. army.mil/newsletter/. ISBN 1-58487-448-1 ii CONTENTS Foreword ............................................................................... v 1. Introduction …………………….....……………………1 David Lai 2. The People’s Liberation Army and the Changing Global Security Landscape ..........................................45 Paul H. B. Godwin 3. Discourse in 3-D: The PLA’s Evolving Doctrine, Circa 2009 .......................................................................99 Andrew Scobell 4. Changing Civil-Military Relations in China ……....135 You Ji and Daniel Alderman 5. T owards an Integrative C4ISR System: Informationization and Joint Operations in the People’s Liberation Army ..........................................193 Kevin Pollpeter 6. The People’s Liberation Army and China’s Internal Security Challenges ….................................237 Harold M. Tanner 7. Chinese Sea Power in Action: The Counter Piracy Mission in the Gulf of Aden and Beyond ....295 Andrew S. Erickson 8. People’s Liberation Army and People’s Armed Police Ground Exercises with Foreign Forces, 2002-2009.......................................................................377 Dennis J. Blasko iii 9. Military Exchanges with Chinese Characteristics: The People’s Liberation Army Experience with Military Relations ...............................................429 Heidi Holz and Kenneth Allen 10. Emerging Grand Strategy for China’s Defense Industry Reform ..........................................................481 Eric Hagt 11. Taming the Hydra: Trends in China’s Military Logistics Since 2000 ....................................................553 Susan M. Puska About the Contributors .....................................................637 iv FOREWORD It is a distinct honor to write the foreword to this volume dedicated to Ambassador James R. Lilley. I am proud that the George H. W. Bush School of Govern- ment and Public Service at Texas A&M University— along with the National Bureau of Asian Research and the U.S. Army War College—was one of the sponsor- ing institutions of the September 2009 Conference on the People’s Liberation Army. For the 11th consecu- tive year, the event has been held at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. It is entirely appropriate that this book of papers presented at the 2009 conference be dedicated to Jim’s memory. He had been closely involved in this series of conferences from the very start; indeed, Jim was the driving force behind the instigation of this enterprise back in the early 1990s. Jim believed that it was impor- tant to gather leading specialists on China’s military on a regular basis away from the hustle, bustle, and hype of Washington for serious, objective, and in- depth analysis of the subject. Jim was a man ahead of his time in that he recognized the importance of care- fully monitoring and documenting the moderniza- tion of China’s military. Moreover, he was committed enough to seek funding, commission experts to write research papers, and ensure the proceedings were published. The result is an entire bookshelf’s worth of high quality edited volumes that are invaluable refer- ence works for policymakers, analysts, scholars, and students. This volume and many others stand as part of Jim Lilley’s enduring legacy and as testament to the im- v pact that a single determined individual can have on U.S. policy. With the passing of Jim Lilley in October 2009, the United States lost one of its most dedicated public servants and an extremely talented China hand. And I lost an old and loyal friend. While Jim, of course, needs no introduction to the contributors to this volume and many readers, it is worth mentioning some of the highlights of his ex- tremely eventful life and long history of selfless ser- vice to this country. Jim was a China hand literally from the day he was born in Shandong Province and grew up speaking Chinese. Jim’s career of government service began in the military and continued in the in- telligence community, with a major focus on China. Later, he shifted to a career as a diplomat. In the early 1980s Jim took the post of chief of the American Insti- tute in Taiwan, the de facto U.S. Embassy in Taipei. Shortly thereafter, he ably served as U.S. ambassador in two Asian capitals at times of considerable political upheaval—for 3 years in Seoul, Korea, followed by 2 years in Beijing. The latter posting was during my ad- ministration and took place at an especially difficult time in America’s relationship with China during the tragedy of Tiananmen Square and its aftermath. Sim- ply put, Jim did an outstanding job. After such a distinguished career, Jim richly de- served a restful retirement. But leaving government service in 1991 did not mean sitting back in a rock- ing chair. Jim lived in the Washington area, where he remained an active participant in policy debates on China and Korea and a keen sponsor and lively par- ticipant in this conference series. While Jim never got to see this volume or attend last year’s conference, I am confident that he would vi have been extremely satisfied with the results. I com- mend this fine collection to anyone interested in the military and security affairs of China. GEORGE H. W. BUSH vii CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION David Lai The final years of the 2000s turned out to be quite eventful for the People’s Republic of China (PRC and China interchangeably) and its armed forces, the Peo- ple’s Liberation Army (PLA). While there were excit- ing events for them to celebrate, there were disturbing ones for them to worry about as well. China’s economic reform and phenomenal eco- nomic development had sailed on uncharted waters for 30 years. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leaders could not have wished for a better occasion than the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing to celebrate their accomplishments. The Beijing Olympics ceremo- nies were probably the most expensive in history; but China had plenty to spend. After all, its economic de- velopment had turned it into the world’s third largest economy and trading nation, the largest holder of for- eign exchange reserves and U.S. treasury bonds, and so on. In 2009, the PRC turned 60. The CCP leaders staged a lavish celebration and held a spectacular national day armed forces parade that made similar ones in Moscow and Pyongyang look pale by com- parison. “Commander-in-Chief” Hu Jintao followed the footsteps of his predecessors (the “core leaders” [领导核心] of the CCP’s first, second, and third gen- erations: Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, and Jiang Ze- min, respectively) to review PLA troops in Tiananmen Square. The PLA took the occasion to show off its de- fense modernization advances since its last parade in 1999. 1 Also in 2009, the PLA Navy (PLAN) and PLA Air Force (PLAAF) celebrated their 60th anniversaries. The PLAAF demonstrated its new air power during the October 1 national day parade. The PLAN held its birthday party earlier in April in Qingdao, the Headquarters of its Beihai Fleet (北海舰队 [Northern Sea Fleet]). Over 200 foreign naval dignitaries, most notably the U.S. Chief of Naval Operations and the Russian Navy Commander, were invited to the cele- bration. It was like an Olympics meeting for the inter- national navies. President Hu Jintao and all the senior PLA leaders led the review of China’s major warships, headed by two nuclear-powered and armed subma- rines (the first-ever public demonstration of China’s strategic submarine fleet) and 21 warships from 14 other nations, especially major naval powers such as the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, and France. Behind these glittering numbers of China’s eco- nomic development, the PLA parades, and the spec- tacular celebration fireworks, the world clearly saw an ambitious China edging its way to the center stage of international economic, political, and military affairs. However, a few other major events in the last 2 years came just in time to remind the Chinese leaders, and the world as well, that China still faced a challenging future. • The global financial crisis was a wakeup call to China that its economy was vulnerable to a volatile world market that was still beyond its control. China’s mercantilist export-oriented development strategy, while deserving credit for jump-starting China’s economic develop- ment, was making China too dependent on the well- and ill-being of the outside world. The 2
Description: