The Perils of Consensus: How ASEAN's Meta-Regime Undermines

42 Pages·2009·0.1 MB·English

by  Vinod Aggarwal

A revised version will appear in Review of International Political Economy, 2010

The Perils of Consensus:
How ASEAN’s Meta-Regime Undermines Economic and
Environmental Cooperation

Vinod K. Aggarwal and Jonathan T. Chow
Berkeley APEC Study Center
802 Barrows Hall, #1970
University of California
Berkeley, California 94720-1970

Tel.: [phone]
Fax: [phone]
Email: [email protected] and [email protected]

July 2009

An earlier version of this article was presented at the International Studies Association meeting
in San Francisco, California, March 27, 2008. Kristi Govella, Ross Cheriton, Vaishnavi
Jayakumar, and Anne Meng provided valuable research assistance and comments. We would
also like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their insightful suggestions.
I. INTRODUCTION

Since its establishment in 1967, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has
undergone a remarkable transformation. Originally conceived to address political and security
issues on a regional basis, ASEAN’s scope has evolved to include a broad range of economic,
environmental and social issues, and its membership has grown to include all of the states in
Southeast Asia. Yet ASEAN’s efforts to foster deeper integration have met with significant
challenges. Two notable examples are its attempts to establish an ASEAN Economic Community
(AEC) to address competition for investment from China and India, and its efforts to reduce the
perennial haze from large-scale forest fires. On both of these critical issues, ASEAN has elicited
only limited cooperation from its member states, resulting in halting progress.
Some scholars point to ASEAN’s institutional norms—particularly the norm of non-
interference—as a persistent obstacle to deeper regional cooperation (e.g. Acharya, 2001, 2003;
Haacke, 2003a; Jones and Smith, 2007; Ramcharan, 2000). While we agree that the norm of non-
interference hinders regional integration and that it is unlikely to disappear—especially in
security matters—we nevertheless argue that it may be possible to circumvent it in other issue
areas by reconfiguring institutional arrangements. In this article, we present an institutional
design model that demonstrates how shared norms—the foundation of international regimes—
both give rise to and are shaped by regime structures and state-level decisions. We briefly
describe how ASEAN’s key norms developed in the context of Southeast Asia’s security
situation and then use our framework to analyze the evolution of the ASEAN Economic
Community trade and the ASEAN anti-haze regime. In the conclusion, we consider how ASEAN
might be able to strengthen both regimes while still protecting member states’ sovereignty.

1
II. AN ANATOMY OF GOVERNANCE STRUCTURES
Understanding the development of international governance structures and how they shape
interactions requires us to understand how their individual components fit together and influence
the particular character of the arrangement (see Figure 1).
[FIGURE 1 ABOUT HERE]
To concretize the discussion, we use this model to dissect the key components of the
GATT/WTO. Starting at the bottom of the schematic, interactions refer to the trade flows of
goods and services in the global economy. Directly above interactions are national actions. These
can include unilateral measures or ad hoc bilateral accords, such as tariffs or environmental
controls. The externalities of these actions can give rise to demand for new governance
structures. For example, the spillover effects of protectionism in the 1930s generated pressure for
an international approach to manage individual national actions, leading to the creation of the
GATT in 1947.
International regimes (the next level up in Figure 1) refer to sets of rules and procedures
around which actors’ expectations converge, while meta-regimes (the top level in Figure 1)
consist of the principles and norms that guide the entire regime. These definitions differ from the
classic formulation articulated by Krasner (1983). While Krasner defines regimes as ‘sets of
implicit and explicit principles, norms, rules and decision-making procedures around which
actors’ expectations converge’, we follow Aggarwal’s (1985) separation of principles and norms
(‘meta-regimes’) and the concrete rules and procedures that instantiate them (‘regimes’). The
logic behind this differentiation of meta-regimes and regimes is two-fold. First, as we argue
below and as Aggarwal (1985) and other scholars have noted (Haas 1980), the causal factors
2
driving the creation of principles and norms—respectively defined by Krasner as ‘beliefs of fact,
causation and rectitude’ and ‘standards of behavior defined in terms of rights and obligations’—
are significantly different than those that drive rules and procedures (Krasner, 1982: 186).
Second, different regimes may draw on a similar meta-regime. For example, the Multi-Fiber
Arrangement and the GATT both drew on the meta-regime of trade liberalization, reciprocity,
safeguard, and other norms (Finlayson and Zacher, 1981), albeit with some modifications
(Aggarwal, 1985), just as the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum and the North
American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) draw on GATT norms (Aggarwal 1994). Another
example is how the underlying meta-regime of institutional monetary cooperation persisted after
1971 even though the regime changed from a fixed exchange rate one to a floating one after
1973.
More specifically, we can classify regimes in terms of their strength, nature, and scope
(Aggarwal, 1985). Strength refers to the stringency and specificity of the regime’s multilateral
rules and the degree to which such agreements are institutionalized. Nature can be understood as
the general intent behind the regime. Scope consists of two parts: issue scope refers to the
number of issues incorporated into the regime, while member scope refers to the number of
actors who are parties to the regime. For example, the GATT regime was quite strong and
specific in its rules and procedures, but the WTO has increased this specificity and created even
more stringent enforcement mechanisms. With some exceptions, it has been liberal in nature, and
both its issue and membership scopes have dramatically expanded over time. Significant changes
in these elements would constitute regime evolution and change.
We can think more systematically about the causal factors influencing the creation of
each of the four elements described above. Figure 2 illustrates these in diagrammatic form.
3
[FIGURE 2 HERE]

Meta-regime demand is driven by policymakers who perceive the need for underlying norms and
principles to address their own goals or to respond to pressures from interest groups. These
norms and principles, in turn, grow out of policymakers’ consensual knowledge. Such
knowledge can originate from a variety of sources, such as existing institutions, scientific and
technical experts, or the policymakers themselves. It is important to note that knowledge is not
necessarily what experts tout or even what is objectively true but rather what is widely accepted.
Haas writes, ‘It is normal that technical specialists originate a particular body of knowledge and
claim relevance for it. Knowledge becomes salient to regime construction only after it has seeped
into the consciousness of policy makers and other influential groups and individuals.’ (Haas,
1980: 369). Although powerful states may play a role in managing knowledge, or acting as
advocates for particular sets of principles and norms, by separating meta-regimes from regimes
in our analysis, we can focus on consensually accepted elements as distinct from the imposition
of specific structures that manifest themselves in rules and procedures.
The creation and evolution of an international regime is a function of both the meta-
regime and a set of regime-specific supply and demand factors. Traditionally, regimes have been
supplied by a hegemon (or a very small group of powerful states) with the capacity to coordinate
international policies. Political actors generally demand regimes for three reasons. First, regimes
reduce transaction costs, particularly the costs of providing information to participants and of
negotiating and implementing individual accords (Keohane, 1984). Second, actors may wish to
control the behavior of other international and domestic actors through rule-based systems rather
than through direct coercion. In a domestic context, signing an international agreement may
4
bolster politicians’ ability to reject demands from interest groups. Finally, decision-makers may
try to bring lower-level (i.e. more specific) arrangements into conformity with broader
institutions. This ‘institutional nesting’ discourages actors from participating in arrangements
that might undermine broader accords because of their more significant concerns with these
higher-level institutions (Aggarwal 1985 and 1998).
If institutions relevant to the issue area already exist, the question of institutional fit
becomes central. We can define four types of connections among institutions: (1) nested links;
(2) horizontal links; (3) overlap; and (4) complete independence. With nested links, institutional
arrangements are subsumed within broader accords. For example, the Multi-Fiber Arrangement
was firmly embedded in the GATT and drew upon and modified its principles and norms to
manage trade in textiles. Institutions can also be horizontally connected, providing a division of
labor as with the IMF and World Bank, the former focusing on short-term balance of lending and
the latter on longer-term development loans. Institutions can also overlap, which can generate
problems of coordination and determining who has authority. Efforts to create an Asian
Monetary Fund (AMF) after the Asian financial crisis reflect the debate over institutional
conflict that could have arisen from overlapping mandates. Finally, institutions may be
independent, without any functional overlap. An example of independent institutions would be
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and APEC. While the U.S. is a member of both,
these institutions have different institutional missions, and thus do not create any conflict.
Moving down the diagram, national actions refer to domestic-level factors that shape the
extent to which a state abides by the rules of a regime. These include the dominant ideology
motivating state decision-makers as well as the extent to which they are insulated from domestic
interest group pressures. It is not hard to imagine that in order to satisfy domestic demands, some
5
states may attempt to evade regime restrictions or ‘free-ride’, thus reaping the public goods
benefits of liberal international accords without actually having to comply with them (or pay the
domestic costs of complying with them).
Finally, at the level of interactions, changes in technology, organization, and tastes
(among other significant factors) will also continue to influence the supply and demand for
goods and services, frequently leading to the creation of new externalities, altered transaction
costs, or new challenges to existing institutional structures. As indicated by the feedback loop in
Figure 2, these interactions may once again drive changes in the basic causal factors that
influence both governance structures and interactions.
Our key analytical interest lies in understanding how institutions evolve over time in
response to problems with existing institutions, secular trends, and new shocks.1 In the following
sections, we apply this framework to ASEAN and examine how national bargaining strategies
have shaped the efforts to create new governance structures in trade and haze in response to
changing trends and shocks. We begin by provide an overview of the meta-regime that
circumscribes and conditions the arrangements established within ASEAN.

III. THE SECURITY ORIGINS OF ASEAN’S META-REGIME2
Since its inception in 1967, ASEAN has espoused a set of norms as a framework for interaction
among its member states. These substantive and procedural norms (Finlayson and Zacher, 1981),
enshrined within various ASEAN documents and exhibited in regular interactions, include the
substantive norms of respect for sovereignty, non-interference in other member states’ domestic

1 For a more detailed analysis of the dynamics of institutional change, see Aggarwal (1998).
2This section draws heavily on Chow (2003), pp. 14-23.
6
affairs, and peaceful dispute settlement. The procedural norms include a preference for informal
elite-based diplomacy, decision-making by mutual consultation and consensus, and a preference
for incrementalism. Undergirding these norms is a basic belief that regional cooperation will
provide member states with enhanced political and economic benefits, both in the region and in
the region’s dealings in the broader international system. Together, these norms and beliefs
constitute the ASEAN meta-regime.
As we note in Figure 2, the development of a meta-regime depends upon a supply of
consensual knowledge among policymakers and a demand for international institutions prompted
by changing systemic conditions. On the supply side, the origin of the meta-regime can be partly
located in the principles of the UN Charter as well as the reconciliatory missions of the ill-fated
Association of Southeast Asia (ASA) and Maphilindo; but perhaps more importantly, they
emerged out of elites’ shared understanding of the importance of protecting state sovereignty,
fighting communism, and preventing regional disputes from boiling over (Leifer, 1989: 24). On
the demand side, political elites’ common experiences in the Cold War and common threat
perceptions following Indonesian President Sukarno’s Konfrontasi (‘confrontation’) campaign
from 1963-1965 were a primary impetus driving the creation of a meta-regime. Konfrontasi was
designed to weaken the newly formed Malaysian Federation through military harassment and
diplomatic offensives. It was driven in part by a vigorous nationalism that viewed the formation
of the Malaysian Federation as imperialist meddling by the British. Crucially, Sukarno also faced
a precarious domestic political situation with an economy undergoing stagflation and a political
rivalry between the military and the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI) (Narine, 2002:10;
Andaya and Andaya, 2001:286; Mackie, 1974: 89). Konfrontasi began to unravel with a failed
coup attempt on October 1, 1965. In response, the conservative Indonesian army, led by Major
7
General Suharto, used the opportunity to conduct a massive purge of actual and suspected
communists, whom they blamed for the coup. With the PKI decimated, Suharto was able to seize
the presidency from Sukarno in March 1966 and quickly began to overturn the latter’s foreign
policies, including renouncing Konfrontasi.
Konfrontasi demonstrated to the Southeast Asian states that domestic strife could have
regional spillover effects and left them eager to avoid future interference in their domestic
affairs, whether from within the region or without. In the 1967 Bangkok Declaration establishing
ASEAN, the member states—then consisting of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore
and Thailand—asserted that they would work together to enhance economic and security
cooperation and set their own course as a region. Each of these states had its own reasons for
agreeing to the ASEAN project. For Indonesia, joining ASEAN was an opportunity to rebuild
trust within the region following Konfrontasi and take on a leadership role, though other states
also regarded ASEAN as a way to channel Indonesia’s regional ambitions down a non-violent
path (Acharya, 2001:49). Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand saw ASEAN as a measure of
insurance against intra-regional conflict following Great Britain’s 1967 announcement that it
would withdraw from East of Suez by 1975 (later amended to 1971) and the United States’ 1969
Guam Doctrine repudiating its commitment to fight wars on continental Asia. Finally, the
Philippines believed that its membership in an indigenous regional organization would enable it
to share more fully in Asian political and economic interactions by helping to offset its
relationship with the United States. During his opening speech to the Fourth ASEAN Ministerial
Meeting in March 1971, Philippine Foreign Minister Carlos Romulo said that ‘countries in the
region had been helpless victims of world powers in their ideological power play’ and that ‘from
this common misfortune grew an awakening to their common identity and community of
8
interests.’ (ASEAN, 1971). These ideas were enshrined in the 1971 Zone of Peace, Freedom and
Neutrality Declaration and the 1976 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, which together formed
the cornerstone of ASEAN’s norms of non-interference and respect for sovereignty. It is
noteworthy that the formation of ASEAN did not require the lead of a hegemonic state but
instead arose from shared threat perceptions among the different members that were born of the
Cold War. In this sense, ASEAN resembled the 19th-century Concert of Europe, which lacked a
single hegemonic pole but instead grew out of a shared realization of the dangers of an
imbalance of power that, in turn, was born from the member states’ common experience of the
Napoleonic Wars.
ASEAN’s organizational culture has exhibited a clear preference for informal diplomacy
and personal elite relationships over rule-based interaction. This informal diplomacy has
historically resulted in discussion, confidence-building measures, and non-binding declarations
of intent rather than policies with the force or semblance of international law. Although these
norms of interaction are consistent with ASEAN’s aversion to any external constraints on their
sovereign control, they have also generated criticisms that ASEAN is little more than a ‘talk
shop’. On the other hand, the informality of the ‘ASEAN Way’ has arguably made ASEAN’s
member states more willing to discuss certain sensitive topics that might not otherwise be open
for discussion.
Informal diplomacy exists hand-in-hand with the key procedural norm of decision-
making by mutual consultation and consensus. Discussion in ASEAN is conducted via a process
whereby each party articulates its viewpoints before a final decision is made. Decisions are not
voted upon but rather made based on consensus. In the event of a deadlock, member states
typically revert to bilateral negotiations. Thus, ASEAN’s collective decisions have tended to
9