The People’s Liberation Army and contingency planning in China

386 Pages·2016·2.8 MB·English

by  Scobell Andrew

SCOBELL
THE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY
DING
SAUNDERS
HAROLD AND
CONTINGENCY PLANNING IN CHINA
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Edited by Andrew Scobell, Arthur S. Ding,
Phillip C. Saunders, and Scott W. Harold
THE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY
AND
CONTINGENCY PLANNING IN CHINA

THE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY
AND
CONTINGENCY PLANNING IN CHINA
Edited by
Andrew Scobell, Arthur S. Ding,
Phillip C. Saunders, and Scott W. Harold
National Defense University Press
Washington, D.C.
2015
Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within
are solely those of the contributors and do not necessarily represent the views
of the Defense Department or any other agency of the Federal Government.
Cleared for public release; distribution unlimited.
Portions of this book may be quoted or reprinted without permission,
provided that a standard source credit line is included. NDU Press would
appreciate a courtesy copy of reprints or reviews.
Published in the United States by National Defense University Press
260 Fifth Avenue (Building 64)
Suite 2500
Fort Lesley J. McNair
Washington, DC 20319
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Scobell, Andrew, editor of compilation.
Title: The People’s Liberation Army and contingency planning in China /
edited by Andrew Scobell, Arthur S. Ding, Phillip C. Saunders, and Scott
W. Harold.
Description: Washington, D.C. : National Defense University Press, [2015] |
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2015038587 | ISBN 9780996824903 (pbk. : alk. paper)
Subjects: LCSH: Military planning—China. | China. Zhongguo ren min jie fang
jun. | National security—China. | Internal security—China. |
China—Military policy. | Sea-power—China—History—21st century. |
China—Strategic aspects.
Classification: LCC UA835 .P3773 2015 | DDC 355/.033551—dc23
LC record available at http://lccn.loc.gov/2015038587
Book design by Jamie Harvey, U.S. Government Publishing Office
CONTENTS
List of Illustrations ...........................................................viii
Acknowledgments ............................................................ix
INTRODUCTION
The PLA and Contingency Planning in China .................................1
Phillip C. Saunders
I.Thinking and Planning for Contingencies
CHAPTER 1
The PLA and Contingency Planning ..........................................15
Mark Cozad
CHAPTER 2
PLA Observations of U.S. Contingency Planning:
What Has It Learned? .........................................................33
Marcelyn L. Thompson
CHAPTER 3
China Plans for Internal Unrest: People’s Armed Police
and Public Security Approaches to “Mass Incidents” ........................55
Jonathan Walton
CHAPTER 4
Civilian Authorities and Contingency Planning in China ...................85
Catherine Welch
CONTENTS
CHAPTER 5
Converting the Potential to the Actual:
Chinese Mobilization Policies and Planning ............................... 107
Dean Cheng
CHAPTER 6
Employment of National-Level PLA Assets in a Contingency:
A Cross-Strait Conflict as Case Study ....................................... 135
Mark A. Stokes
II. Domestic Contingencies
CHAPTER 7
China’s Armed Forces Respond to Internal Disaster Relief:
Assessing Mobilization and Effort .......................................... 159
Jeffrey Engstrom and Lyle Morris
CHAPTER 8
PLA Response to Widespread Internal Unrest
in the Han Homeland ....................................................... 185
Ma Chengkun
III. Border Contingencies
CHAPTER 9
The PLA and Cross-Border Contingencies in North Korea and Burma .... 205
Thomas Woodrow
CHAPTER 10
PLA Contingency Planning and the Case of India .......................... 225
Larry M. Wortzel
CHAPTER 11
Like a Good Neighbor: Chinese Intervention
Through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization ......................... 251
Ben Lowsen
vi
CONTENTS
IV. Maritime Contingencies
CHAPTER 12
The PLA and Near Seas Maritime Sovereignty Disputes ................... 279
Alexander Chieh-cheng Huang
CHAPTER 13
The PLA and Far Seas Contingencies:
Chinese Capabilities for Noncombatant Evacuation Operations .......... 301
Michael S. Chase
CHAPTER 14
PLA Navy Planning for Out of Area Deployments .......................... 321
Kristen Gunness and Samuel K. Berkowitz
About the Contributors ..................................................... 349
Index ........................................................................ 355
vii
CONTENTS
Illustrations
Figures
6.1. General Staff Department Organizational Structure .................. 137
7.1. Demonstrated Mobilization Capacity of the Four Case Studies. . . . . . . . .170
7.2. Manpower Effort of the Four Case Studies ..............................171
7.3. Number of Chinese Armed Forces Personnel Engaged
in Disaster Relief Efforts Over Time by Disaster .............................171
7.4. Demonstrated Mobilization Capacity and Mobilization
Capacity Curve of Select Disaster and Warfighting Contingencies ........ 173
7.5. Manpower Effort of Select Disaster and
Warfighting Contingencies ..................................................176
11.1. Security Domains ...................................................... 259
Tables
2.1. Key Terms Related to “Contingency Planning”
in Chinese and English .......................................................35
4.1. Committees of the State Council Emergency Management Office ......90
4.2. Organizational Chart of the China National Commission
for Disaster Reduction ........................................................91
4.3. Contingency Support Requirements of the National Emergency
Response Plan .................................................................93
7.1. Instances of Disasters by Persons Affected in China,
August 1985–October 2012 ...................................................161
7.2. Types of Disasters and Affected Military Regions,
August 1985–October 2012 .................................................. 162
7.3. China’s Armed Forces Disaster Mobilization .......................... 168
7.4. Armed Forces Disaster and Warfighting Mobilization ................. 173
7.5. 2008 Winter Storms ......................................................178
7.6. 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .179
7.7. 2010 Yushu Earthquake ..................................................179
7.8. 2010 Zhouqu Mudslides ................................................. 180
11.1. Shanghai Cooperation Organization Exercises ....................... 262
12.1. PLAN Activity in Times of Near Seas Sovereignty Disputes ..........286
12.2. PRC Maritime Law Enforcement Agencies (prior to 2013) ............ 291
viii
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This volume grew out of a conference on “Contingency Planning, PLA style”
co-sponsored by Taiwan’s Council of Advanced Policy Studies (CAPS), RAND,
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), and National Defense
University (NDU). RAND hosted the conference at its Arlington, Virginia, office.
The editors gratefully acknowledge the intellectual contribution of Michael
Swaine (CEIP) in shaping the agenda and recruiting paper writers, discussants,
and panelists, and the financial support of the four sponsoring organizations.
The editors also thank the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office
for hosting a dinner in honor of the conference participants.
Yi-su Yang and Polly Shen (CAPS), Cortez Cooper, Lyle Morris, and Heather
McLendon (RAND), and Christopher D. Yung, Michael Glosny, Terry Min Jie
Zeng, and Deborah Jefferson (NDU) all provided support in organizing the
original conference. Dr. Saunders also thanks Gerald Faber, Donald Mosser,
Mollie Murphy, Jeanette Tolbert, and Christopher D. Yung (NDU) and Martha
Robinson and Patrick Shaw (Joint Staff J7) for their assistance in obtaining per-
mission for NDU’s Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs to co-sponsor
the conference.
In addition to the chapter authors and editors, Ken Allen, Tai Ming Cheung,
Bernard Cole, Cortez Cooper, John Corbett, T.X. Hammes, Lonnie Henley,
Frank G. Hoffman, John Landry, Oriana Skylar Mastro, Shen Ming-Shih, Yitzak
Shichor, Paul Stares, Michael Swaine, Christopher D. Yung, and Yen Tiehlin all
provided comments or participated in discussions that improved the chapters
in this book. Terry Min Jie Zeng and Adam Jankowski drafted summaries of the
chapters for the introduction. Mr. Jankowski also provided additional research
to help update Dr. Ma Chengkun’s chapter. Drew Casey provided invaluable
assistance in reformatting the chapters, tracking down stray references, and
standardizing English and Chinese language references.
The editors thank NDU Press Director Dr. William Eliason and Executive
Editor Dr. Jeffrey Smotherman for their creativity in squeezing this book into
a narrow publication window, Lisa Yambrick and Jane Floyd for copyediting
ix