PALGRAVE STUDIES IN EUROPEAN UNION POLITICS ‘In this insightful contribution, Pontus Odmalm examines the crucial questions around the transformation of political parties over Europe and immigration. Highly Series Editors: Michelle Egan, Neill Nugent and William Paterson OBE topical and at the cutting edge of political science debates, this book benefits from a cross-national comparative design and starts to offer answers on why and how party competition is changing in western Europe today.’ — Paul Statham, Sussex Centre for Migration Research, University of Sussex, UK Why are the EU and immigration issues such complicated questions for political parties to compete on? And what challenges do they present to parties’ electoral strategies? By systematically comparing the political mainstream in four West European countries – Belgium, Britain, the Netherlands and Sweden – this study explores the changing nature of party competition on two highly salient issues in contemporary politics. Based on a new way of coding party manifestos, and a large T H set of interview data, the author argues that the ideological ambiguity presented E by the two issues can crystallize pre-existing tensions within parties. An inability to P A negotiate these tensions explains why some parties are more likely than others to R emphasise their successful track record of delivery and competent handling of EU T Y and immigration matters, than they are to offer the electorate a choice between P O different societal outcomes. L I T I Pontus Odmalm is Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of Edinburgh, UK. PC oS nt O uF s O TH THE PARTY POLITICS d mE E a lU OF THE EU AND m A N D IMMIGRATION I M M I G R A T I O N Pontus Odmalm Cover image © Stock Photo: 23443337 PalgraveStudiesinEuropeanUnionPolitics Editedby:MichelleEgan,AmericanUniversity,USA,NeillNugent,VisitingProfessor,Collegeof Europe,BrugesandHonoraryProfessor,UniversityofSalford,UK,andWilliamPatersonOBE, UniversityofAston,UK. EditorialBoard:ChristopherHill,Cambridge,UK,SimonHix,LondonSchoolofEconomics,UK, MarkPollack,TempleUniversity,USA,KalypsoNicolaïdis,OxfordUK,MortenEgeberg,Univer- sityofOslo,Norway,AmyVerdun,UniversityofVictoria,Canada,ClaudioM.Radaelli,University ofExeter,UK,FrankSchimmelfennig,SwissFederalInstituteofTechnology,Switzerland FollowingonthesustainedsuccessoftheacclaimedEuropeanUnionSeries,whichessentiallypub- lishesresearch-basedtextbooks,PalgraveStudiesinEuropeanUnionPoliticspublishescutting-edge research-drivenmonographs. Theremitoftheseriesisbroadlydefined,bothintermsofsubjectandacademicdiscipline.All topicsofsignificanceconcerningthenatureandoperationoftheEuropeanUnionpotentiallyfall withinthescopeoftheseries.Theseriesismultidisciplinarytoreflectthegrowingimportanceof theEUasapolitical,economicandsocialphenomenon. Titlesinclude: CarolynBan MANAGEMENTANDCULTUREINANENLARGEDEUROPEANCOMMISSION FromDiversitytoUnity? GijsJanBrandsma CONTROLLINGCOMITOLOGY AccountabilityinaMulti-LevelSystem EdoardoBressanelli EUROPARTIESAFTERENLARGEMENT Organization,IdeologyandCompetition RamonaComan,ThomasKosteraandLucaTomini(editors) EUROPEANIZATIONANDEUROPEANINTEGRATION FromIncrementaltoStructuralChange VéroniqueDimier THEINVENTIONOFAEUROPEANDEVELOPMENTAIDBUREAUCRACY RecyclingEmpire HeleneDyrhauge EURAILWAYPOLICY-MAKING OnTrack? TheofanisExadaktylosandClaudioM.Radaelli(editors) RESEARCHDESIGNINEUROPEANSTUDIES EstablishingCausalityinEuropeanization JackHaywardandRüdigerWurzel(editors) EUROPEANDISUNION BetweenSovereigntyandSolidarity WolframKaiserandJan-HenrikMeyer(editors) SOCIETALACTORSINEUROPEANINTEGRATION ChristianKaunertandSarahLeonard(editors) EUROPEANSECURITY,TERRORISMANDINTELLIGENCE TacklingNewSecurityChallengesinEurope ChristianKaunertandKamilZwolski TheEUASAGLOBALSECURITYACTOR AComprehensiveAnalysisbeyondCFSPandJHA MarinaKolb THEEUROPEANUNIONANDTHECOUNCILOFEUROPE FinnLaursen(editor) DESIGNINGTHEEUROPEANUNION FromParistoLisbon PontusOdmalm THEPARTYPOLITICSOFTHEEUANDIMMIGRATION DimitrisPapadimitriouandPaulCopeland(editors) THEEU’sLISBONSTRATEGY EvaluatingSuccess,UnderstandingFailure DavidPhinnemore THETREATYOFLISBON OriginsandNegotiation ClaudiaSternberg THESTRUGGLEFOREULEGITIMACY PublicContestation,1950–2005 YvesTiberghien(editor) LEADERSHIPINGLOBALINSTITUTIONBUILDING Minerva’sRule LiubomirK.Topaloff POLITICALPARTIESANDEUROSCEPTICISM AmyVerdunandAlfredTovias(editors) MAPPINGEUROPEANECONOMICINEGRATION RichardG.WhitmanandStefanWolff(editors) THEEUROPEANNEIGHBOURHOODPOLICYINPERSPECTIVE Context,ImplementationandImpact SarahWolff THEMEDITERRANEANDIMENSIONOFTHEEUROPEANUNION’SINTERNALSECURITY JanWouters,HansBruyninckx,SudeshnaBasuandSimonSchunz(editors) THEEUROPEANUNIONANDMULTILATERALGOVERNANCE AssessingEUParticipationinUnitedNationsHumanRightsandEnvironmentalFora OzgeZihnioglu EUROPEANUNIONCIVILSOCIETYPOLICYANDTURKEY ABridgeTooFar? PalgraveStudiesinEuropeanUnionPolitics SeriesStandingOrderISBN978–1–403–99511–7(hardback)and ISBN978–1–403–99512–4(paperback) (outsideNorthAmericaonly) Youcanreceivefuturetitlesinthisseriesastheyarepublishedbyplacingastandingorder.Please contactyourbookselleror,incaseofdifficulty,writetousattheaddressbelowwithyournameand address,thetitleoftheseriesandoneoftheISBNsquotedabove. CustomerServicesDepartment,MacmillanDistributionLtd,Houndmills,Basingstoke,Hampshire RG216XS,UK. The Party Politics of the EU and Immigration Pontus Odmalm DepartmentofPoliticsandInternationalRelations,UniversityofEdinburgh,UK ©PontusOdmalm2014 Allrightsreserved.Noreproduction,copyortransmissionofthis publicationmaybemadewithoutwrittenpermission. Noportionofthispublicationmaybereproduced,copiedortransmitted savewithwrittenpermissionorinaccordancewiththeprovisionsofthe Copyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988,orunderthetermsofanylicence permittinglimitedcopyingissuedbytheCopyrightLicensingAgency, SaffronHouse,6–10KirbyStreet,LondonEC1N8TS. Anypersonwhodoesanyunauthorizedactinrelationtothispublication maybeliabletocriminalprosecutionandcivilclaimsfordamages. Theauthorhasassertedhisrighttobeidentifiedastheauthorofthiswork inaccordancewiththeCopyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988. Firstpublished2014by PALGRAVEMACMILLAN PalgraveMacmillanintheUKisanimprintofMacmillanPublishersLimited, registeredinEngland,companynumber785998,ofHoundmills,Basingstoke, HampshireRG216XS. PalgraveMacmillanintheUSisadivisionofStMartin’sPressLLC, 175FifthAvenue,NewYork,NY10010. PalgraveMacmillanistheglobalacademicimprintoftheabovecompanies andhascompaniesandrepresentativesthroughouttheworld. Palgrave®andMacmillan®areregisteredtrademarksintheUnitedStates, theUnitedKingdom,Europeandothercountries. ISBN 978-1-349-34971-5 ISBN 978-1-137-46251-0 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9781137462510 Thisbookisprintedonpapersuitableforrecyclingandmadefromfully managedandsustainedforestsources.Logging,pulpingandmanufacturing processesareexpectedtoconformtotheenvironmentalregulationsofthe countryoforigin. AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary. AcatalogrecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress. Contents ListofTablesandFigures vi Acknowledgements vii 1 TheChangingNatureofPartyCompetition 1 2 CompetinginMultidimensionalPartySpaces 8 3 (Almost)ContestingtheEUandImmigration(1945–1990) 30 4 ‘Pulled’or‘Pushed’?IncreasedIdeologicalUncertaintyon theEUandImmigration‘Issues’ 63 5 TheChangingModesofPartyCompetition(1991–2010) 97 6 TheDeathofIdeology,orWaysofDealingwithan IncreasedStateofFlux 112 Notes 117 Bibliography 146 Interviews 165 Index 167 v Tables and Figures Tables 4.1 Typeofideological‘pull’(groupedbycountry) 65 4.2 EU(confirmedcasesinbold) 95 4.3 Immigration(confirmedcasesinbold) 96 Manifestopositions(EU) 5.1 Belgium–Flanders 98 5.2 Belgium–Wallonia 98 5.3 Britain 99 5.4 TheNetherlands 99 5.5 Sweden 99 Manifestopositions(Immigration) 5.6 Belgium–Flanders 100 5.7 Belgium–Wallonia 100 5.8 Britain 100 5.9 TheNetherlands 100 5.10 Sweden 101 5.11 Manifestopositionsandexpectedmodesof competition:EU(1991–2010) 101 5.12 Manifestopositionsandexpectedmodesof competition:immigration(1991–2010) 102 5.13 Defactomodesofcompetition/EU(aggregate%) 104 5.14 Defactomodesofcompetition/immigration (aggregate%) 104 5.15 Modesofcompetition:party/frequency/totalnrof elections(EU) 104 5.16 Modesofcompetition:party/frequency/totalnrof elections(immigration) 105 Figures 4.1 AverageManifestoPositions(1991–2010) 64 vi Acknowledgements The precise origins of this book are difficult to trace, but I am fairly sure that the ideas that underpin it evolved from several discussions with Paul Taggart on how to classify party positions. These ideas later developed into a funding proposal to the ESRC’s ‘First Grants’ scheme, whichIwasveryfortunatetosecureandverygratefulfor(RES-061-25- 0195). The book would not have been possible to write without the fantastic advice and feedback I got from numerous friends and col- leagues(ElizabethBomberg,ChristinaBoswell,AilsaHenderson,Charlie Jeffery, Luke March and Wilfried Swenden). I am also very grateful for the comments I received from various discussants and workshop participants over the years (Tim Bale, Gregg Bucken-Knapp, Alexander Caviedes, James Hampshire, Jonas Hinnfors, Dirk Jacobs, Sarah de Lange, Charles Lees, Laura Morales, Martin Schain, Andrea Spehar and RichardWhitaker).SpecialthanksgotoRandallHansenandtheCentre for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (University of Toronto) for the several invitations to present my work and to Betsy Super for her greatassistanceoverthecourseoftheproject.Theresearchundertaken for this book owes a lot to the Belgian, British, Dutch and Swedish MPswhosogenerouslygaveuptheirtimetospeaktoBetsyandmein 2009–2013. And, finally, a world of thanks goes to Sarah and Maya for theircontinuoussupportandlovethroughoutthisprocess.Thisbookis dedicatedtothem. vii 1 The Changing Nature of Party Competition Party systems across Europe have become increasingly complex and volatile (Enyedi and Deegan-Krause, 2010). New questions have emerged – with the attendant formation of ‘new’ parties – which have often come to challenge the status quo of party competition (Harmel and Gibson, 1995; Franklin, 1992). This change is said to manifest itselfintheincreasedprominenceoflifestyle,valueandenvironmental questionsthathavetakenthepoliticalconversationsinapost-material direction over recent decades (Bomberg, 2002; Davis and Davenport, 1999; Knutsen, 1990; Inglehart, 1971). But this volatility also relates to those novel questions that have entered the party-political agen- das and which do not always have an obvious dimensional fit or any equallyobviousmodesofframing(seee.g.ChongandDruckman,2007; Rydgren,2005;Taggart,1995).Andsimultaneously,theparty-electorate linkagesshowincreasingsignsofdissonanceandfriction(Walgraveand Nuytemans, 2009; Hobolt, 2008; Jones and Baumgartner, 2005), and parties are also said to be increasingly difficult to distinguish from one another.Thebehaviourofthevotershasinturnechoedthesedevelop- mentsandpointstohowcompetenceandanabilitytodeliverseemto bemoreimportantthanideologicalproximityfortheirchoiceofparty (GreenandHobolt,2008;Holian,2004;vanderBrug,2004). These changes raise several pertinent questions for the political sci- entist. Does ideology matter in the political ‘game’ (Fukuyama, 1992)? Do parties offer a choice between different societal outcomes anymore (Stokes,1963)?And,ifso,arethesechoicessignificantlydifferentfrom oneanother(Petrocik,1996)?Ifoneanswerstheseinthenegative,then this leads to an additional set of queries that need to be addressed. Should we have entered an era of visionary decline (Elff, 2007), what isitthatthendrivespartyconflict?Andwhyaresomepartiesstillmore likelythanotherstoexperienceaninternalideologicalturmoil? 1 2 ThePartyPoliticsoftheEUandImmigration Electoral competition has previously been explained by the differ- entspatialpositionsthatpartiesoccupy(Downs,1957),theassumption beingthattheseideologicallocation(s)wouldtranslateintospecific–and different – policy solutions. Conflict has therefore tended to revolve around competing ideas of ‘the good society’. Similarly, the electoral dynamics that parties are subjected to (Deschouwer, 2013; Adams and Somer-Topcu, 2009; Adams and Merrill, 1999), and how they have responded (either pro- or re-actively) to certain exogenous ‘shocks’ (Adamsetal.,2004;Budge,1994),havealsobeenputforwardtoexplain theidentifiedmodesofpartycompetition. However, such explanations assume that the party-political land- scapes have remained relatively stable, and that certain fault lines continuetoberelevantfor partiesandelectoratesalike.Butas increas- ingly noted, party systems appear to be in a state of flux (see e.g. Poguntke, 2012; Broughton and Donovan, 1999; Mair, 1989), and the politicalmainstreammaythereforefindthattheirtraditionalstances– and solutions – are no longer viable. These questions are of course importantforthemoregeneralunderstandingofhowpartycompetition has evolved and changed over time, and, indeed, ‘parties’, ‘ideologies’ and ‘elections’ continue to be key topics for the comparative scholar (seee.g.Budgeetal.,2001;InglehartandKlingemann,1987;Budgeand Farlie, 1983; 1978; Rose, 1964). But they are equally important ques- tionstoaddresswhentryingtoexplain(andmakesenseof)howparties engage with, and negotiate, issues that often fall outside of the tradi- tional dimensions of conflict. While much of the post-war period was characterised by uni-dimensional types of competition concerning the distribution,andownership,ofsocietalresources,thismaterialcleavage is said to be less dominant today and subsequently also less relevant thanitwas,say,40yearsago(Jansenetal.,2013).Inparallel,however, anewsetofissueshaveemerged,whicharecharacterisedbytheirmore post-material nature (Kitschelt, 1988; Inglehart, 1971). One would, per- haps, expect these changes to have generated more room for conflict, giventhepluralityofcleavagesthatarenowpresent,yetparadoxically, therealsoappearstobeanincreasedlevelofagreementoncertainsoci- etal outcomes (e.g. the continuation of the welfare state or protecting the environment).Therefore,what is said to have changed is how par- ties intend to achieve these mutually desirable goals. This suggests that party competition, at the very least, has been affected by these socio- political changes but possibly also that it has changed fundamentally. Wherepartieswerepreviouslymorelikelytoputforwardasetofcom- peting visions, they can now be described to be more concerned with