The Palgrave Handbook of Security, Risk and Intelligence PDF
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The Palgrave Handbook of Security, Risk and Intelligence RobertDover(cid:129)HuwDylan(cid:129)MichaelS.Goodman Editors The Palgrave Handbook of Security, Risk and Intelligence Editors RobertDover HuwDylan PoliticsandInternationalRelations DepartmentofWarStudies UniversityofLeicester King’sCollegeLondon Leicester,UnitedKingdom London,UnitedKingdom MichaelS.Goodman DepartmentofWarStudies King’sCollegeLondon London,UnitedKingdom ISBN978-1-137-53674-7 ISBN978-1-137-53675-4(eBook) DOI10.1057/978-1-137-53675-4 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2017938276 ©TheEditor(s)(ifapplicable)andTheAuthor(s)2017 Theauthor(s)has/haveassertedtheirright(s)tobeidentifiedastheauthor(s)ofthisworkin accordancewiththeCopyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988. Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsaresolelyandexclusivelylicensedbythePublisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any otherphysicalway,andtransmissionorinformationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation, computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilarmethodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexempt fromtherelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. Thepublisher,theauthorsandtheeditorsaresafetoassumethattheadviceandinformationinthis bookarebelievedtobetrueandaccurateatthedateofpublication.Neitherthepublishernorthe authorsortheeditorsgiveawarranty,expressorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontained hereinorforanyerrorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade.Thepublisherremainsneutralwith regardtojurisdictionalclaimsinpublishedmapsandinstitutionalaffiliations. Coverimage©adventtr/GettyImages Printedonacid-freepaper ThisPalgraveMacmillanimprintispublishedbySpringerNature TheregisteredcompanyisMacmillanPublishersLtd. The registered company address is: The Campus, 4 Crinan Street, London, N1 9XW, United Kingdom P : S C REFACE TUDYING ONTEMPORARY I S NTELLIGENCE AND ECURITY The Palgrave Handbook of Security, Risk and Intelligence provides a detailed analysis of the current risks and threats present in the international system. These threats are not filtered for a particular geographical bias; they are analysed where they occur rather than where any political standpoint would prefertoseethemoccur.Consequentlythisbookcuratesinternationalthreats thatarepresentlyactive,orthatcanbeanalysedfromourcurrentvantagepoint to take on a regional or international significance. Its underlying emphasis is the change that has and continues to occur, its implications for security, and the challengesmanifest in itsmanagement. The Handbook locates its risks and threats not from a pre-formed list of obviousissues,butfromourownhorizonscanofwherethesethreatsemanate geographicallyandthematicallyacrosssocial,economicandpoliticalphenom- ena.Weconsiderthesethreatstobebroadranging,fromsocialmovementsto technologicaldevelopments,butwebelievethatintelligencewillhaveacrucial role to play in managing the different types of risk that these developments present. Understanding intelligence and its place in government – or indeed, increasinglybeyondgovernment–isthereforeourpointofdeparture.Thefirst chapterconsidersthechallengesofestablishingatheoreticalstateoftheartfor security and intelligence. But beyond this the Handbook does not seek to approach its task or the individual topics from any particular theoretical per- spective: indeed, itis deliberatelyempiricist in itsapproach. The Handbook isdivided intofour thematicsections: (1) TheChangingNatureofConflictandCrises:thissectionconsidersa widerangeofissuesrelatedtothedevelopmentofmodernconflicts,the fallout from them, and the impact this generates. We consider issues ranging from the challenges posed by the movement of people and by the consumption of raw materials, to bio-security, the flow of capital, across to the changing nature of armed conflict and insurgency. Many ofthechallengesthatmakeupthissectiondovetailandareimpactedby other challenges identified within the section and the broader v vi PREFACE:STUDYINGCONTEMPORARYINTELLIGENCEANDSECURITY Handbook: taken together they underline the complexity of issues – in public policy and security terms – that make up this area and suggest that managing the risks they pose required a concerted, inter-agency, andinternationaleffort. (2) TheChangingNatureofTechnologyisnowquitewellmappedinthe extant literature – the discussion of the real-world impacts of the technology, what it means for the individuals affected by technology, andbygovernmentsandprivateactorsusingthetechnologyislesswell developed. This section of the Handbook bridges the gap between technology publications, which explain the theoretical possibilities of wherethetechnologysits(oftenfarinadvancetoactualusage),andthe legal and activist literature (which seeks to apply regulatory brakes to theactualusage).Itconsidershowtheevolvingtechnologicalenviron- mentaffectsthe‘traditional’practiceofsecurityandriskmanagementin the state system; for instance, how will technology influence and affect espionage?Itengageswiththecurrentrisksandopportunitiesrelatedto cybersecurity,andtheimplicationthishasformaintainingstatesecrets; it also looks forward to the risks inherent in the rapid development of artificial intelligenceandcoverttechnological attacks. (3) The Changing Nature of Intelligence is a matter of fundamental importance in the identification, management and mitigation of risks to security. Chapters in this section build upon several of the views presentedinthefirsttwosectionstodrawtogetherthebestanalysison the evolution of intelligence as a craft, moving beyond the simplistic memes of ‘information revolution’ and ‘surveillance society’. The sec- tion begins with a consideration of an issue central to several of the subjects considered in the Handbook: globalisation. A central focus is exploring the impact this phenomenon has on intelligence, from a broader historical perspective. The subsequent chapters build upon thisbyexaminingvariouswaysthatintelligenceagencies,inanincreas- ingly globalised threat environment, are adapting – either through increasingtheircapacity-buildingprogrammes,privatisation,orbysim- ply expanding their efforts to engage with those who pose seemingly intractablesecuritychallenges.Althoughtechnologyandthemannerin which threats materialise are drivers for significant change, there is muchin theoperationalart of intelligencethatremains constant. (4) TheChangingNatureofGovernanceintheDevelopedWorldisour fourthsection.Atthecoreofthissectionisthequestionofachanging social contract between governments and peoples, partly driven by the transnationalisation of experience and also by some more traditional economic and political shifts. Many of these issues and challenges that ariseoutofthisquestionrevolvearoundissuesoflegitimacyandethics– particularly with regard to extraterritorial legal systems, and the activ- ities of intelligence agencies in the age of bulk data – and these are extremely problematic to manage, or even to negotiate, in an PREFACE:STUDYINGCONTEMPORARYINTELLIGENCEANDSECURITY vii environment of increasing mistrust of authority. They are also inti- matelylinkedtothedevelopmentshighlightedintheprevioussections, particularly technology and its effect on the volume and availability of information at people’s disposal. The most significant issue in this regard may be the development of the media, and how digital media functions asavectorof security, insecurityandintelligence. The authors who have contributed to this Handbook share the values of the project:eachhasconsiderableexperiencewithandconnectivitytopractitioner communities, and they are strongly empirically grounded scholars. Taken together the chapters represent something of the changing nature of security and intelligence in the twenty-first century. It is a time of evolution and revolution, and as these chapters demonstrate, as the threats and security environment change,so toowill allelsehave to adapt. Robert Dover,Huw Dylan,MichaelS. Goodman C ONTENTS The Quest fora Theoryof Intelligence 1 Claudia HillebrandandR. Gerald Hughes SectionI The Changing Natureof ConflictandCrises Rapid Urbanisationand Security: Holistic ApproachtoEnhancing Securityof UrbanSpaces 27 KseniaChmutina andLeeBosher EnergySecurity 47 Petra Dolata Evolving Biosecurity Frameworks 63 CaitrionaMcLeish ResilienceandNational Security 79 Gail Ridley Proxy Warsandthe ContemporarySecurityEnvironment 99 VladimirRautaandAndrew Mumford ResilienceandCriticalInfrastructure: Origins, Theories, andCritiques 117 ChrisZebrowskiandDaniel Sage Intelligence andOrganisedCrime –ParadigmsandParadoxes 137 John F.Buckley ix x CONTENTS SectionII The ChangingNature ofTechnology CyberSecurity 157 Scott Jasperand JamesWirtz SecuringState Secrets 177 Patrick F.Walsh The Riseof SmartMachines: The Unique Perilof Intelligent Software Agentsin Defenseand Intelligence 195 Nina A.Kollars ‘The More ThingsChange’: HUMINTin the CyberAge 213 David V. Gioe Drones –Opportunities, ThreatsandChallenges 229 Peter Lee Invisible Battlegrounds:On ForceandRevolutions, Military andOtherwise 247 MichaelWarner SectionIII The Changing Natureof Intelligence Globalisation andIntelligence 265 Zakia Shiraz CapacityBuilding andSecuritySectorReform 281 Paul Jackson Privatisation 297 DamienVan Puyvelde Criminality, Terrorismandthe Changing Natureof Conflict: The Dynamicsof the NexusBetween CrimeandTerrorism 315 Angela Gendron SecretInterventions andClandestine Diplomacy 335 Huw Dylan Social MediaIntelligence (SOCMINT) 355 David Omand CONTENTS xi Corporate Intelligence 373 ArthurWeiss SectionIV TheChangingNatureofGovernanceintheDevelopedWorld The Ethicsof Intelligence 395 RossBellaby Risk,SecurityandInternational Law 411 Robert Dover The Changing Media 429 Peter Busch Terrorismand theNews Media: Symbiosis, ControlandFraming 443 AlexanderSpencer TwoWorlds,OneCommonPursuit:WhyGreaterEngagementwith theAcademicCommunityCouldBenefittheUK’sNationalSecurity 461 Robert Dover,MichaelS.Goodman andMarthaWhite The Ethicsof Whistleblowing,Leaking andDisclosure 479 Seumas Miller Index 495
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