O X F O R D L I B R A R Y O F P S Y C H O L O G Y EDITED BY JEROME R. BUSEMEYER ZHENG WANG JAMES T. TOWNSEND & AMI EIDELS The Oxford Handbook of COMPUTATIONAL and MATHEMATICAL PSYCHOLOGY The Oxford Handbook of Computational and Mathematical Psychology OXFORD LIBRARY OF PSYCHOLOGY EDITOR-IN-CHIEF PeterE.Nathan AREA EDITORS ClinicalPsychology DavidH.Barlow CognitiveNeuroscience KevinN.OchsnerandStephenM.Kosslyn CognitivePsychology DanielReisberg CounselingPsychology ElizabethM.AltmaierandJo-IdaC.Hansen DevelopmentalPsychology PhilipDavidZelazo HealthPsychology HowardS.Friedman HistoryofPsychology DavidB.Baker MethodsandMeasurement ToddD.Little Neuropsychology KennethM.Adams OrganizationalPsychology SteveW.J.Kozlowski PersonalityandSocialPsychology KayDeauxandMarkSnyder OXFORD LIBRARY OF PSYCHOLOGY peter e. nathan Editor-in-Chief The Oxford Handbook of Computational and Mathematical Psychology Edited by Jerome R. Busemeyer Zheng Wang James T. Townsend Ami Eidels 1 3 OxfordUniversityPressisadepartmentoftheUniversityof Oxford.ItfurtherstheUniversity’sobjectiveofexcellenceinresearch, scholarship,andeducationbypublishingworldwide. Oxford NewYork Auckland CapeTown DaresSalaam HongKong Karachi KualaLumpur Madrid Melbourne MexicoCity Nairobi NewDelhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto Withofficesin Argentina Austria Brazil Chile CzechRepublic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore SouthKorea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam OxfordisaregisteredtrademarkofOxfordUniversityPress intheUKandcertainothercountries. PublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericaby OxfordUniversityPress 198MadisonAvenue,NewYork,NY10016 (cid:2)c OxfordUniversityPress2015 Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedin aretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,withouttheprior permissioninwritingofOxfordUniversityPress,orasexpresslypermittedbylaw, bylicense,orundertermsagreedwiththeappropriatereproductionrightsorganization. Inquiriesconcerningreproductionoutsidethescopeoftheaboveshouldbesenttothe RightsDepartment,OxfordUniversityPress,attheaddressabove. Youmustnotcirculatethisworkinanyotherform andyoumustimposethissameconditiononanyacquirer. LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData Oxfordhandbookofcomputationalandmathematicalpsychology/editedbyJeromeR.Busemeyer, ZhengWang,JamesT.Townsend,andAmiEidels. pages cm.–(Oxfordlibraryofpsychology) Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex. ISBN978-0-19-995799-6 1. Cognition. 2. Cognitivescience. 3. Psychology–Mathematicalmodels. 4. Psychometrics. I. Busemeyer,JeromeR. BF311.O9452015 (cid:2) 150.151–dc23 2015002254 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica onacid-freepaper Dedicatedtothememoryof Dr.WilliamK.Estes(1919–2011)andDr.R.DuncanLuce(1925–2012) Twoofthefoundersofmodernmathematicalpsychology v SHORT CONTENTS OxfordLibraryofPsychology ix AbouttheEditors xi Contributors xiii TableofContents xvii Chapters 1–390 Index 391 vii OXFORD LIBRARY OF PSYCHOLOGY TheOxfordLibraryofPsychology,alandmarkseriesofhandbooks,ispublished byOxfordUniversityPress,oneoftheworld’soldestandmosthighlyrespected publishers,withatraditionofpublishingsignificantbooksinpsychology.The ambitiousgoaloftheOxfordLibraryofPsychology isnothinglessthantospan avibrant,wide-rangingfieldand,insodoing,tofillaclearmarketneed. Encompassing a comprehensive set of handbooks, organized hierarchically, the Library incorporates volumes at different levels, each designed to meet a distinctneed.Atonelevelareasetofhandbooksdesignedbroadlytosurveythe majorsubfieldsofpsychology;atanotherarenumeroushandbooksthatcover importantcurrentfocalresearchandscholarlyareasofpsychologyindepthand detail.Plannedasareflectionofthedynamismofpsychology,theLibrary will growandexpandaspsychologyitselfdevelops,therebyhighlightingsignificant new research that will impact onthe field. Addingto itsaccessibility and ease ofuse,theLibrary willbepublishedinprintand,lateron,electronically. TheLibrarysurveyspsychology’sprincipalsubfieldswithasetofhandbooks that capture the current status and future prospects of those major subdisci- plines.Theinitialsetincludeshandbooksofsocialandpersonalitypsychology, clinical psychology, counseling psychology, school psychology, educational psychology, industrial and organizational psychology, cognitive psychology, cognitiveneuroscience,methodsandmeasurements,history,neuropsychology, personalityassessment,developmentalpsychology,andmore.Eachhandbook undertakes to review one of psychology’s major subdisciplines with breadth, comprehensiveness, and exemplary scholarship. In addition to these broadly- conceived volumes, the Library also includes a large number of handbooks designedtoexploreindepthmorespecializedareasofscholarshipandresearch, such as stress, health and coping, anxiety and related disorders, cognitive development, or child and adolescent assessment. In contrast to the broad coverage of the subfield handbooks, each of these latter volumes focuses on anespeciallyproductive,morehighlyfocusedlineofscholarshipandresearch. Whether at the broadest or most specific level, however, all of the Library handbooksoffersyntheticcoveragethatreviewsandevaluatestherelevantpast andpresentresearchandanticipatesresearchinthefuture.Eachhandbookin theLibraryincludesintroductoryandconcludingchapterswrittenbyitseditor toprovidearoadmaptothehandbook’stableofcontentsandtoofferinformed anticipationsofsignificantfuturedevelopmentsinthatfield. ix