The Northern Ireland Question 99778800223300__220033880088__0011__pprreexxiiii..iinndddd ii 1100//2200//22000088 44::4499::2233 PPMM Also by Brian Barton BROOKEBOROUGH, THE MAKING OF A PRIME MINISTER FROM BEHIND A CLOSED DOOR: Secret Court Martial Records of the 1916 Easter Rising NORTHERN IRELAND IN THE SECOND WORLD WAR THE BLITZ: Belfast in the War Years THE EASTER RISING (co-author with Michael Foy) THE NORTHERN IRELAND QUESTION: Myth and Reality (co-editor with Patrick J. Roche) THE NORTHERN IRELAND QUESTION: Perspectives and Policies (co-editor with Patrick J. Roche) THE NORTHERN IRELAND QUESTION: Unionism, Nationalism, and Partition (co-editor with Patrick J. Roche) 99778800223300__220033880088__0011__pprreexxiiii..iinndddd iiii 1100//2200//22000088 44::4499::2233 PPMM The Northern Ireland Question The Peace Process and the Belfast Agreement Edited by Brian Barton Tutor, Department of History The Open University, UK and Patrick J. Roche Former Member of the Northern Ireland Assembly Northern Ireland 99778800223300__220033880088__0011__pprreexxiiii..iinndddd iiiiii 1100//2200//22000088 44::4499::2233 PPMM Editorial matter, selection, introduction and conclusion © Brian Barton and Patrick J. Roche 2009 All remaining chapters © respective authors 2009 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6-10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2009 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin's Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN-13: 978–0–230–20380–8 hardback ISBN-10: 0–230–20380–9 hardback This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The Northern Ireland question : the peace process and the Belfast Agreement / Brian Barton, Patrick J. Roche. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-13: 978–0–230–20380–8 ISBN-10: 0–230–20380–9 1. Northern Ireland – Politics and government – 1994– 2. Great Britain. Treaties, etc. Ireland, 1998 Apr. 10. 3. Northern Ireland – Relations – Great Britain. 4. Great Britain – Relations – Northern Ireland. 5. Peace Movements – Northern Ireland. I. Barton, Brian, 1944– II. Roche, Patrick J., 1940– DA990.U46N6736 2009 941.60824—dc22 2008034978 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 Printed and bound in Great Britain by CPI Antony Rowe, Chippenham and Eastbourne 99778800223300__220033880088__0011__pprreexxiiii..iinndddd iivv 1100//2200//22000088 44::4499::2233 PPMM Contents List of Illustrations vii List of Abbreviations viii Notes on Contributors x Introduction 1 Brian Barton and Patrick J. Roche 1 The Historical Background to the Belfast Agreement 12 Brian Barton 2 Negotiating the Belfast Agreement 38 Thomas Hennessey 3 Implementing Devolved Government 1998–2002 57 Graham Gudgin 4 T he Belfast Agreement and the Constitutional Status of Northern Ireland 84 Austen Morgan 5 The Electoral Dynamics of the Belfast Agreement 105 Sydney Elliott 6 Unionism and the Belfast Agreement 131 Christopher Farrington 7 Northern Nationalism and the Belfast Agreement 147 Cillian McGrattan 8 Republican Paramilitaries and the Peace Process 165 Jonathan Tonge 9 Loyalist Paramilitaries and the Peace Process 181 Ian Wood 10 The Belfast Agreement and Southern Irish Politics 205 Catherine O’Donnell 11 The United States and the Peace Process 222 Adrian Guelke v 99778800223300__220033880088__0011__pprreexxiiii..iinndddd vv 1100//2200//22000088 44::4499::2233 PPMM vi Contents 12 The Triumph of the Belfast Agreement 238 Paul Bew 13 The Case against the Belfast Agreement 246 Dennis Kennedy Conclusion 265 Brian Barton and Patrick J. Roche Bibliography 270 Index 277 99778800223300__220033880088__0011__pprreexxiiii..iinndddd vvii 1100//2200//22000088 44::4499::2233 PPMM Illustrations Tables 5.1 Northern Ireland Assembly election, 25 June 1998 108 5.2 European Parliament election, 10 June 1999: Northern Ireland 110 5.3 UK General election in Northern Ireland, 7 June 2001 111 5.4 District council elections results, 7 June 2001 112 5.5 Northern Ireland Assembly election, 2 November 2003 113 5.6 European Parliament election, 10 June 2004: Northern Ireland 114 5.7 UK general election in Northern Ireland, 5 May 2005 117 5.8 District council elections results of 5 May 2005 118 5.9 Northern Ireland Assembly election, 7 March 2007 120 5.10 Northern Ireland Assembly 2003 intermediate transfers: Party and community voting cohesion 127 5.11 Northern Ireland Assembly 2003: Terminal party transfers from the four main political parties 128 5.12 Northern Ireland Assembly: Cross-community transfers: 2003 and 1998 128 5.13 Northern Ireland Assembly 2007: Terminal party transfers from the four main political parties 129 Figures 5.1 SDLP versus Sinn Féin, 1992–2007 121 5.2 UUP versus DUP, 1992–2007 121 vii 99778800223300__220033880088__0011__pprreexxiiii..iinndddd vviiii 1100//2200//22000088 44::4499::2233 PPMM Abbreviations ANIA Americans for a New Irish Agenda AP Alliance Party CP Conservative Party BBC British Broadcasting Corporation DUP Democratic Unionist Party EU European Union GP Green Party IICD Independent International Commission on Decommissioning IMC International Monitoring Commission INC Irish National Caucus IND LAB Independent Labour IND N Independent Nationalist IND Independent INLA Irish National Liberation Army IRA/PIRA Irish Republican Army/Provisional IRA LAB Labour Party LVF Loyalist Volunteer Force MEP Member of the European Parliament MLA Member of the Legislative Assembly NILP Northern Ireland Labour Party NIUP Northern Ireland Unionist Party NIWC Northern Ireland Women’s Coalition NORAID Irish Northern Aid NSPCC National Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Children PR Proportional Representation PSNI Police Service of Northern Ireland PUP Progressive Unionist Party RUC Royal Ulster Constabulary SDLP Social Democratic and Labour Party SF Sinn Féin SP Socialist Party STV Single Transferable Vote TUC Trades Union Congress UDA Ulster Defence Association UDP Ulster Democratic Party UIM Ulster Independence Movement viii 99778800223300__220033880088__0011__pprreexxiiii..iinndddd vviiiiii 1100//2200//22000088 44::4499::2233 PPMM Abbreviations ix UK United Kingdom UKUP United Kingdom Unionist Party US United States UUP Ulster Unionist Party UUC Ulster Unionist Council UVF Ulster Volunteer Force UWC Ulster Workers Council WP Workers Party 99778800223300__220033880088__0011__pprreexxiiii..iinndddd iixx 1100//2200//22000088 44::4499::2233 PPMM
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