The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going PDF
Preview The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going
ALSO BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN THE NEXT 100 YEARS AMERICA’S SECRET WAR THE FUTURE OF WAR THE INTELLIGENCE EDGE THE COMING WAR WITH JAPAN POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY OF THE FRANKFURT SCHOOL Copyright © by George Friedman 2011 All rights reserved. Published in the United States by Doubleday, a division of Random House, Inc., New York, and in Canada by Random House of Canada, Limited, Tonronto. www.doubleday.com and the colophon are registered trademarks of Random House, Inc. DOUBLEDAY DD All maps created by STRATFOR Jacket design by Emily Mahon Jacket photograph © Chad Baker/Getty Images Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Friedman, George. The next decade / George Friedman. p. cm. . World politics— st century—Forecasting. I. Title. 1 21 D .F 863 752011 . ’—dc 90983 1 22 2010043116 eISBN: 978-0-385-53295-2 v3.1 For Don Kuykendall, Friend I hope to have God on my side, but I must have Kentucky. —ABRAHAM LINCOLN Rules are not necessarily sacred, principles are. —FRANKLIN ROOSEVELT We cannot play innocents abroad in a world that is not innocent. —RONALD REAGAN It is necessary for a prince who wishes to maintain his position to learn how not to be good, and to use this knowledge or not to use it according to necessity. —NICCOLÒ MACHIAVELLI CONTENTS Cover Other Books by This Author Title Page Copyright Dedication LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS AUTHOR’S NOTE I R A NTRODUCTION: EBALANCING MERICA CHAPTER 1 T U E HE NINTENDED MPIRE CHAPTER 2 R E M P EPUBLIC, MPIRE, AND THE ACHIAVELLIAN RESIDENT CHAPTER 3 T F C R S HE INANCIAL RISIS AND THE ESURGENT TATE CHAPTER 4 F B P INDING THE ALANCE OF OWER CHAPTER 5 T T T HE ERROR RAP CHAPTER 6 R P EDEFINING OLICY: T C I HE ASE OF SRAEL CHAPTER 7 S R T U S I TRATEGIC EVERSAL: HE NITED TATES, RAN, M E AND THE IDDLE AST CHAPTER 8 T R R HE ETURN OF USSIA CHAPTER 9 E R H UROPE’S ETURN TO ISTORY CHAPTER 10 F W P ACING THE ESTERN ACIFIC CHAPTER 11 A S H ECURE EMISPHERE CHAPTER 12 A A P L A FRICA: LACE TO EAVE LONE CHAPTER 13 T T HE ECHNOLOGICAL D I AND EMOGRAPHIC MBALANCE CHAPTER 14 T E R D HE MPIRE, THE EPUBLIC, AND THE ECADE ACKNOWLEDGMENTS About the Author LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS Major American Trade Relations Countries with a U.S. Military Presence U.S. Home Prices Three Regional Balances Arabian Peninsula, Persian Gulf Ukraine-Kazakhstan Gap Russian Population Density North European Plain Europe—1815 Empires—1900 Western Pacific Chinese Rainfall and Population Density China’s Terrain Northeast Asia Southeast Asia Indonesian Sea-Lanes India’s Terrain Terrain Barriers in South America Cuba and the Caribbean Brazil’s Trade Relations Islam in Africa Ethnolinguistic Groups in Africa Population Density in Africa
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