The Next Arms Race - Strategic Studies Institute - U.S. Army

530 Pages·2012·8.2 MB·English

by  Henry D. Sokolski

T
h
e

N
e
x
t

A
r
m
s

R
a
c
e
U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE
Visit our website for other free publication
downloads
http://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/
To rate this publication click here.
HE
ed
nit
re
yd
D b
. y
S
o
k
o
l
s
k
i
This Publication SSI Website USAWC Website
Strategic Studies Institute Book
THE NEXT ARMS RACE
Henry D. Sokolski
Editor
July 2012
The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and
do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the De-
partment of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S.
Government. Authors of Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publica-
tions enjoy full academic freedom, provided they do not disclose
classified information, jeopardize operations security, or mis-
represent official U.S. policy. Such academic freedom empow-
ers them to offer new and sometimes controversial perspectives
in the interest of furthering debate on key issues. This report is
cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited.
*****
This publication is subject to Title 17, United States Code, Sec-
tions 101 and 105. It is in the public domain and may not be copy-
righted.
*****
Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should
be forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army
War College, 47 Ashburn Drive, Carlisle, PA 17013-5046.
*****
All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publications may be
downloaded free of charge from the SSI website. Hard copies of
this report may also be obtained free of charge while supplies
last by placing an order on the SSI website. SSI publications may
be quoted or reprinted in part or in full with permission and ap-
propriate credit given to the U.S. Army Strategic Studies Insti-
tute, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle Barracks, PA. Contact SSI
by visiting our website at the following address: www.Strategic
StudiesInstitute.army.mil.
*****
The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail
newsletter to update the national security community on the re-
search of our analysts, recent and forthcoming publications, and
upcoming conferences sponsored by the Institute. Each newslet-
ter also provides a strategic commentary by one of our research
analysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, please
subscribe on the SSI website at www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.
army.mil/newsletter/.
ISBN 1-58487-534-8
ii
CONTENTS
Foreword ....................................................................vii
1. Overview .................................................................1
Henry D. Sokolski
PART I: ASIA
2. Asian Drivers of Russia’s Nuclear
Force Posture .........................................................45
Jacob W. Kipp
3. China’s Strategic Forces in the 21st Century:
The People’s Liberation Army’s Changing
Nuclear Doctrine and Force Posture ..................83
Michael Mazza and Dan Blumenthal
4. P lutonium, Proliferation and
Radioactive-waste Politics in East Asia ........... 111
Frank von Hippel
5. C hina and the Emerging Strategic
Competition in Aerospace Power .....................141
Mark Stokes and Ian Easton
PART II: MIDDLE EAST
6. The Middle East’s Nuclear Future ................... 179
Richard L. Russell
7. Alternative Proliferation Futures
for North Africa................................................... 205
Bruno Tertrais
iii
CONTENTS
8. C asting a Blind Eye: Kissinger and
Nixon Finesse Israel’s Bomb..............................239
Victor Gilinsky
PART III: SOUTH ASIA
9. N uclear Weapons Stability or Anarchy
in the 21st Century: China, India,
and Pakistan ........................................................261
Thomas W. Graham
10. Nuclear Missile-Related Risks
in South Asia.......................................................305
R. N. Ganesh
11. Prospects for Indian and Pakistani
Arms Control .....................................................357
Feroz Hassan Khan
PART IV: POST-COLD WAR MILITARY
SCIENCE AND ARMS CONTROL
12. T o What Extent Can Precision
Conventional Technologies Substitute
for Nuclear Weapons? ...................................... 387
Stephen J. Lukasik
13. Missiles for Peace .............................................. 413
Henry D. Sokolski
14. Missile Defense and Arms Control.................. 425
Jeff Kueter
iv
CONTENTS
15. A Hardheaded Guide to Nuclear
Controls............................................................... 477
Henry D. Sokolski
About the Contributors........................................... 513
v

FOREWORD
This volume is the 15th in a series of edited vol-
umes of contracted research the Nonproliferation Pol-
icy Education Center (NPEC) has published in coop-
eration with the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) of the
U.S. Army War College. The volume showcases stud-
ies that were done over the past 3 years on what the
next set of strategic nuclear competitions might look
like. Funding for this project came from the Carnegie
Corporation of New York and the U.S. Department of
Defense. Much of the work to format the book was
done by NPEC’s research associate, Kate Harrison.
Without her help and that of Dr. James Pierce and Rita
Rummel of SSI, this book would not have been pos-
sible. Finally, thanks are due to the project’s authors
and reviewers who contributed their time and ideas.
HENRY D. SOKOLSKI
Executive Director
The Nonproliferation
Policy Education Center
vii

CHAPTER 1
OVERVIEW
Henry D. Sokolski
With most of the world’s advanced economies
now stuck in recession; Western support for defense
cuts and nuclear disarmament increasing; and a major
emerging Asian power at odds with its neighbors and
the United States; it is tempting to think our times are
about to rhyme with a decade of similar woes—the
disorderly 1930s.1
Might we again be drifting toward some new form
of mortal national combat? Or, will our future more
likely ape the near-half-century that defined the Cold
War—a period in which tensions between competing
states ebbed and flowed but peace mostly prevailed
by dint of nuclear mutual fear and loathing?
The short answer is, nobody knows. This much,
however, is clear: The strategic military competitions
of the next 2 decades will be unlike any the world has
yet seen. Assuming U.S., Chinese, Russian, Israeli,
Indian, French, British, and Pakistani strategic forces
continue to be modernized and America and Russia
continue to reduce their strategic nuclear deploy-
ments, the next arms race will be run by a much larger
number of contestants—with highly destructive stra-
tegic capabilities far more closely matched and capable
of being quickly enlarged than in any other previous
period in history.
1