The New Voter in Western Europe: France and Beyond

314 Pages·2011·3.968 MB·English

by  Bruno Cautrès, Anne Muxel (eds.)

The New Voter in Western Europe
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The New Voter in Western Europe: France and Beyond
Edited by Bruno Cautrès and Anne Muxel
The New Voter in
Western Europe
France and Beyond
Edited by
Bruno Cautrès and Anne Muxel
THE NEW VOTER IN WESTERN EUROPE
Copyright © Bruno Cautrès and Anne Muxel, 2011.
Originally published in French by Presses de Sciences PO as Comment les
Électeurs Font-ils leur Choix?
All rights reserved.
First published in 2011 by
PALGRAVE MACMILLAN®
in the United States—a division of St. Martin’s Press LLC,
175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010.
Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world,
this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited,
registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills,
Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS.
Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies
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Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States,
the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries.
ISBN 978-1-349-29047-5 ISBN 978-0-230-11980-2 (eBook)
DOI 10.1057/9780230119802
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
The new voter in Western Europe : France and beyond / edited by
Bruno Cautrès and Anne Muxel.
p. cm.—(Europe in transition : the NYU European studies series)

1. Voting—Europe, Western. 2. Voting—France. 3. Elections—Europe,
Western. 4. Elections—France. 5. Europe, Western—Politics and
government—1989– 6. France—Politics and government—2007–
I. Cautrès, Bruno. II. Muxel, Anne.
JN94.A95N49 2011
327.94—dc22 2011003208
A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library.
Design by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd., Chennai, India.
First edition: July 2011
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Contents
List of Illustrations vii
Acknowledgments xi
Preface by Mark Franklin xiii
Contributors xvii
Introduction The Dynamics of Electoral Choice 1
Bruno Cautrès and Anne Muxel
1 The Process of Electoral Decision Making 11
Bruno Cautrès and Anne Muxel
2 Loyalties, Mobilities, Abstentions 27
Anne Muxel
3 The Plurality of Voting Possibilities 57
Vincent Tiberj and Bruno Cautrès
4 The Decisive Influence of Image 79
Daniel Boy and Jean Chiche
5 When Do Voters Choose? 101
Bruno Cautrès and Anne Jadot
6 Following the Campaign: Politicization,
Confirmation, and Polarization 129
Thierry Vedel
7 Electoral Agenda and Issue Voting 153
Nicolas Sauger
8 How Le Pen’s Electorate Lost Faith in Him 171
Pascal Perrineau
vi ● Contents
9 The Temptation to Vote Bayrou 189
Sylvie Strudel
10 Review of an Electoral Campaign: From Chronicle to
Political Logic 205
Claude Dargent and Martine Barthélemy
11 The Panel Electoral Français 2007: Methodological Issues 225
Viviane Le Hay
Conclusion The Benefits of Panel Studies 251
Bruno Cautrès and Anne Muxel
Methodological Appendixes 261
Bibliography 281
Index 297
Illustrations
Graphs
3.1 Voting intentions and electoral potential of first-round
candidates for the presidency (% of panel members who
stated that they could vote for one of the candidates) 64
8.1 The Dispersal of the Le Pen vote (2002–2007) 174
Figures
4.1 Image and voting trajectories in favour of Sarkozy 94
4.2 Image and voting trajectories in favour of Royal 95
11.1 Predicted probabilities of refusing, leaving or continuing
to the end of the panel in function of sociopolitical
characteristics in 2007 235
11.2 Survival Rates from wave to wave according to the
panel considered (%) 237
11.3 Survival curves in 2007 according to the level of
interest in politics expressed in wave 1 238
11.4 Comparative estimates of interest in politics (“very” +
“quite”), for 2002 and 2007: initial sample and
subsequent stayers (%) 240
11.5 Abstention rate comparisons in the Fifth Republic
(referenda, first rounds of presidential elections,
second rounds of legislative elections) 241
11.6 P redicted probabilities of refusing to take part in
the panel in 2002 and 2007 according to interest in
politics and level of education 242
Tables
2.1 The electoral trajectories of panel members between
the first and second round of the presidential election 32
viii ● List of Illustrations
2.2 The transfer of votes between the first round of the
presidential election and the first round of the
legislative election (%) 35
2.3 The transfer of votes between the second round of
the presidential election and the first round of the
legislative election (%) 36
2.4 Comparison of the electoral behavior of panel members
between the two rounds of the presidential election and
between the two rounds of the legislative election (%) 37
2.5 The socio-demographic characteristics of the different
non-voting trajectories from the presidential election to
the legislative elections (4 rounds of voting) (%) 39
2.6 The political characteristics of the various nonvoting
trajectories from the presidential election to the
legislative elections (4 rounds of voting) (%) 41
2.7 Voting trajectories from the presidential election to
the first round of the legislative elections (3 rounds
of voting) 45
2.8 Socio-demographic characteristics of the different
voting trajectories in voting, from the presidential to
legislative elections (%) 46
2.9 The political characteristics of the different voting
trajectories from the presidential to the legislative
elections (%) 48
2.10 The characteristics of stability and mobility 53
3.1 A typology of panel members based on their possible
votes (% in the columns) 66
3.2 Political attitudes of panel members using the typology
of range of possible votes (% in columns) 67
3.3 Voting intentions for the presidential election using
the range of possible votes typology (% in columns) 70
3.4 Declared legislative vote according to the range of
possible votes typology (% in columns) 70
4.1 Shifts in Royal’s and Sarkozy’s Image (% horizontals) 82
4.2 A typology of panel members according to their
perception Royal’s and Sarkozy’s image 83
4.3 I mage typology for Royal and Sarkozy, according to
voting itineraries (ordered by decreasing percentages of
the “confident” type) 84
4.4 Logistic regression model forecasting the Royal versus
Sarkozy vote 86
List of Illustrations ● ix
4.5 Stability in voting behavior according to consistency in
image perception of the candidate (%) 87
4.6 A typology of candidate image according to the
voting itineraries of mobile voters (% in lines) 91
5.1a Electoral (in)decision and the moment of choice:
first-round logic (% in lines) 106
5.1b Electoral (in)decision and the moment of choice:
second-round logic (% in lines) 106
5.2 Sociology of electoral (in)decision and of the
moment of choice (% in columns) 109
5.3 Politicization and electoral (in)decision and the
moment of choice (% in columns) 112
5.4 The moment of choice for the second round in
function of the vote (reconstructed) on April 22,
2007 (% in lines) 120
5.5 The moment of choice and the main motivation for
the second presidential round vote (% in columns) 124
6.1 Frequency of following the campaign (%) 131
6.2 Voters profiles according to how closely they
followed the campaign 134
6.3 Activities undertaken during the campaign (%) 138
6.4 Voting intentions and actual voting in relation to
how the campaign was followed (%) 144
6.5 Judgment of the functioning of the democratic
system in relation to following the campaign (%) 148
7.1 Leading issues in 2007 (% in the columns) 154
7.2 Positions of panel members on campaign proposals
(% in columns) 155
7.3 Party proximity and candidate perceived as proposing
the best solutions—a selection of the main parties and
candidates (% in line) 160
7.4 A multinomial logistic regression analysis explaining the
voting in the first round of the 2007 presidential election 162
7.5 Estimators of the parameters of the logistic regression
model explaining the mobility within the left 165
7.6 Logistic regression explaining the mobility from
Bayrou/UDF-MoDem to other alternatives 166
8.1 Improvement in Sarkozy’s image among the 2002
Le Pen electorate (%) 176
8.2 The Socio-demographic profile of Le Pen’s electorates
(% in columns) 177