T N he ew T L radiNg for a iviNg The Wiley Trading series features books by traders who have survived the mar- ket’s ever-changing environment and have prospered—some by reinventing systems, others by getting back to basics. Whether a novice trader, professional or somewhere in-between, these books will provide the advice and strategies needed to prosper today and well into the future. For more on this series, visit our website at www.WileyTrading.com. Founded in 1807, John Wiley & Sons is the oldest independent publishing company in the United States. With offices in North America, Europe, Australia and Asia, Wiley is globally committed to developing and marketing print and electronic products and services for our customers’ professional and personal knowledge and understanding. T N he ew T radiNg for a L iviNg Psychology • Discipline Trading Tools and Systems Risk Control • Trade Management Dr. Alexander Elder www.elder.com www.spiketrade.com Cover design: Paul DiNovo Copyright © 2014 by by Dr. Alexander Elder. All rights reserved. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey. Published simultaneously in Canada. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permis- sion of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 646-8600, or on the Web at www.copyright.com. 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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data: ISBN 978-1-118-44392-7 (Hardcover) ISBN 978-1-118-96367-8 (ebk) ISBN 978-1-118-96368-5 (ebk) Printed in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 To the memory of Lou Taylor— a wise man, a savvy trader, and a true friend. CCOONNTTEENNTTSS Preface xiii Introduction 1 1. Trading—The Last Frontier 1 2. Psychology Is the Key 3 3. The Odds against You 5 ONE Individual Psychology 9 4. Why Trade? 9 5. Reality versus Fantasy 10 6. Self-Destructiveness 16 7. Trading Psychology 19 8. Trading Lessons from AA 21 9. Losers Anonymous 23 10. Winners and Losers 27 TWO Mass Psychology 31 11. What Is Price? 32 12. What Is the Market? 33 13. The Trading Scene 36 14. The Market Crowd and You 39 15. Psychology of Trends 43 16. Managing versus Forecasting 46 THREE Classical Chart Analysis 49 17. Charting 50 18. Support and Resistance 55 vii viii CONTENTS 19. Trends and Trading Ranges 60 20. Kangaroo Tails 65 FOUR Computerized Technical Analysis 69 21. Computers in Trading 69 22. Moving Averages 74 23. Moving Average Convergence-Divergence: MACD Lines and MACD-Histogram 80 24. The Directional System 89 25. Oscillators 95 26. Stochastic 95 27. Relative Strength Index 99 FIVE Volume and Time 103 28. Volume 103 29. Volume-Based Indicators 107 30. Force Index 112 31. Open Interest 117 32. Time 121 33. Trading Timeframes 126 SIX General Market Indicators 133 34. The New High–New Low Index 133 35. Stocks above 50-Day MA 139 36. Other Stock Market Indicators 140 37. Consensus and Commitment Indicators 142 SEVEN Trading Systems 149 38. System Testing, Paper Trading, and the Three Key Demands for Every Trade 151 39. Triple Screen Trading System 154 40. The Impulse System 162 41. Channel Trading Systems 166 EIGHT Trading Vehicles 173 42. Stocks 175 43. ETFs 176 44. Options 178 45. CFDs 186 46. Futures 187 47. Forex 194