The New Politics of the Old South: An Introduction to Southern Politics PDF
Preview The New Politics of the Old South: An Introduction to Southern Politics
The New Politics of the Old South An Introduction to Southern Politics 7th Edition Edited by Charles S. Bullock III University of Georgia Mark J. Rozell George Mason University ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD Lanham • Boulder • New York • London 2211__00338866--BBuulllloocckk..iinnddbb 11 88//1122//2211 66::0088 AAMM Acquisitions Editor: Jon Sisk Acquisitions Assistant: Benjamin Knepp Sales and Marketing Inquiries: [email protected] Credits and acknowledgments for material borrowed from other sources, and reproduced with permission, appear on the appropriate pages within the text. Published by Rowman & Littlefield An imprint of The Rowman & Littlefield Publishing Group, Inc. 4501 Forbes Boulevard, Suite 200, Lanham, Maryland 20706 www.rowman.com 86-90 Paul Street, London EC2A 4NE Copyright © 2022 by The Rowman & Littlefield Publishing Group, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any electronic or mechanical means, including information storage and retrieval systems, without written permission from the publisher, except by a reviewer who may quote passages in a review. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Information Available Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Available 978-1-5381-5477-9 (cloth) 978-1-5381-5478-6 (paperback) 978-1-5381-5479-3 (electronic) The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of American National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1992. 2211__00338866--BBuulllloocckk..iinnddbb 22 88//1122//2211 66::0088 AAMM Contents 1 Introduction: The South Realigns to the GOP 1 Charles S. Bullock III 2 Growth versus Stagnation and a New Alignment 17 Charles S. Bullock III 3 African Americans’ Role in Southern Politics 39 Charles S. Bullock III and Mark J. Rozell Part I: The Growth States 4 Virginia: From Red to Blue 59 Mark J. Rozell 5 Georgia: America’s Newest Toss-Up State 79 Charles S. Bullock III 6 North Carolina: A Deeply Divided Partisan State 101 J. Michael Bitzer 7 Florida: Every (Person) for Themselves 127 R. Bruce Anderson and Zachary Baumann 8 Texas: A Shifting Republican Terrain 147 M. V. Hood III and Seth C. McKee 9 South Carolina: Republicans Defying the Odds 179 Scott E. Buchanan iii 2211__00338866--BBuulllloocckk..iinnddbb 33 88//1122//2211 66::0088 AAMM iv Contents Part II: The Stagnant States 10 Louisiana: Sui Generis No More 203 Michael B. Henderson 11 Mississippi: Persistence of a Republican-Dominated State 221 Stephen D. Shaffer 12 Tennessee: From Bluish to Reddish to Red 245 Michael Nelson 13 Alabama: Polarized and Uncompetitive 271 David A. Hughes 14 Arkansas: Should We Color the State Red with a Permanent Marker? 289 John C. Davis, Andrew J. Dowdle, and Joseph G. Giammo 15 Oklahoma: The Big Sort Continues 303 John D. Rackey, C. Tyler Godines Camarillo, and Keith Gaddie Index 325 About the Editors 341 2211__00338866--BBuulllloocckk..iinnddbb 44 88//1122//2211 66::0088 AAMM 1 Introduction The South Realigns to the GOP Charles S. Bullock III As it had been for George W. Bush’s two elections, the South was critical for Donald Trump’s 2016 success. Had Trump done no better in the South than in the rest of the nation, he would have been back hosting The Apprentice.1 Trump replicated the feat that won Jimmy Carter the presidency forty years earlier. Both presidents swept the South except for Virginia. Trump carried the other eleven southern states and their 154 electors, which provided just over half of his Electoral College vote. Hillary Clinton beat Trump handily in the remainder of the country, taking 219 electors to his 152.2 The South that for decades had been the most reliable region for Demo- crats once again in 2016 was the base on which a GOP presidential bid rested. From 1880 until the 1950s, the South presented a nearly united front against the GOP. The first inroads by the GOP came in the Rim South in 1920 when Okla- homa and Tennessee backed Warren Harding. Eight years later, these two states plus Florida, North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia—all of the Rim South except Arkansas—opted for Herbert Hoover. However, it was only with Eisenhower that the Rim South and later the Deep South began to realign to the GOP. Key (1959) labeled the kind of gradual change in partisan loyalties experienced by the South as a secular realignment. The initial GOP successes in presidential elections but also in winning seats in Congress and governorships came in the Rim South subregion. Not until the 1960s did the GOP score its first successes in the Deep South states of Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina. This chapter traces the realignment of the South from the Democratic to the Re- publican Party. It will document how the gradual shift in partisan preferences came at different speeds in the two subregions. Realignment began in presidential elections and, over time, worked its way down to lower offices.3 This chapter sets the scene for an incipient second realignment back to the Democratic Party that is gathering strength and is the subject of the second chapter. 1 2211__00338866--BBuulllloocckk..iinnddbb 11 88//1122//2211 66::0088 AAMM 2 Charles S. Bullock III THE PRESIDENCY For most of the twentieth century, the South acted more as an observer than a player in presidential elections. During the region’s decades-long commitment to the Dem- ocratic Party, it had no influence on the outcome when a Republican won the White House. Prior to John Kennedy’s 1960 election, the support of southern electors was decisive only for Grover Cleveland’s two elections and Woodrow Wilson’s reelection. Beginning with the election of Dwight Eisenhower, at least one Southern state has opted for the Republican in every presidential election. Five times (in 1972, 1984, 1988, 2000, and 2004), the entire region helped put a Republican in the White House. Trump’s sweep of all but one state matched Reagan’s feat in 1980 when the latter took the region except for Georgia, which remained loyal to native son Jimmy Carter. While the South was never as solidly Republican as Key’s solid Democratic South, when the nation was closely divided, the South could play a decisive role. Republicans scored their first successes when Eisenhower swept the Rim South, except for Arkansas and North Carolina. Breakthroughs in the Deep South came during the next decade when Barry Goldwater, who voted against the 1964 Civil Rights Act, added these five states to his native Arizona as he lost one of the largest landslides in U.S. history. Since 1972, the bulk of the South has voted for Republican presidential can- didates, with the exception of 1976. While the South has been the nation’s most Republican region in presidential elections for decades, Democrats enjoyed some success when their ticket boasted not one but two southerners. In both presidential elections of the 1990s, the home states of President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore (Arkansas and Tennessee, respectively) voted Democratic. Among Deep South states, only Louisiana supported the Clinton-Gore ticket in both elections. Democrats narrowly carried Georgia in 1992 and in 1996 took Florida as it began to break free from its GOP moorings, but lost Georgia. The new millennium saw a reemergence of the solidly Republican South. Both of Bush’s elections depended on the South, which provided the bulk of his Electoral College votes. Had he not swept the region in 2000, he would have completed his second term as Texas governor. Unlike in Florida, where Bush’s 2000 victory was measured in hundreds of votes, the GOP decisively carried the rest of the region. In a stinging rebuke, Gore lost his home state of Tennessee 51–47 percent. In 2004, Bush carried the South by 5.5 million votes while losing the popular vote in the other thirty-eight states and the District of Columbia by 2.5 million votes. In 2008, the South provided support critical for Obama’s nomination and con- tributed to his November victory (Bullock 2010a). Obama succeeded in winning fifty-five Electoral College votes from Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, the most won by a Democrat since 1976. He became the first Democrat to carry Vir- ginia since 1964 and the first non-southern Democrat to win any southern state since John Kennedy. Massive support from African Americans proved critical to Obama’s improvement over John Kerry’s woeful performance in the South. 2211__00338866--BBuulllloocckk..iinnddbb 22 88//1122//2211 66::0088 AAMM Introduction: The South Realigns to the GOP 3 In 2016, Florida and North Carolina again appeared toward the top of lists of bat- tleground states. Georgia joined the pair so that three of the region’s most populous states were among the most competitive. As in recent presidential elections, Florida and North Carolina attracted multiple visits and received peach baskets full of cash for television advertising. With its twenty-nine electors, Florida was the biggest prize. Going into election night, many analysts focused on Florida, expecting that if Clinton carried the Sunshine State, she would become the next tenant of the White House. But well before the 11 p.m. newscasts in the East, the networks’ analysts called Florida and North Carolina for Trump. Georgia followed suit shortly afterward. Across the region as across the nation, Clinton won the urban vote, often by im- pressive margins. But Trump’s promise to bring back factory jobs appealed to small- town southerners who drove past shuttered textile mills in their search for employ- ment. Trump’s pledge to build a wall along the nation’s southern border made sense to those worried about the next paycheck who saw eager Hispanics hoping for a day’s work lingering at the edges of the Home Depot parking lot. The dismantlement of Obamacare seemed wise to those struggling to pay exorbitant rates for health insur- ance with deductibles so high that they received no benefit. Democrats’ effort to at- tract White votes, largely unavailing in recent years, yielded even less return in 2016, as Clinton attracted more than a third of this group only in Virginia. CONGRESS Although dominance came later than in presidential elections, Republicans have held most southern congressional seats since 1995. Beginning with 1972, the South has been at least as Republican as the rest of the nation in presidential elections, with the sole exception of 1976 (Bullock 1988, 225). In Congress, however, southern Republicans lagged their northern cousins, in part due to the popularity of Demo- cratic incumbents (Black and Black 2002), who could often convince voters that they shared the region’s values and were far more conservative than most northern Democrats (Lublin 2004). Given the choice between an unknown Republican and a popular Democratic incumbent whose conservatism was well established, most southern voters opted for the latter. As shown in figure 1.1, not until 1993 did the GOP share of southern Senate seats (46 percent) outpace their proportion in the remainder of the nation (42 percent). Finally, in 1995, Republicans secured most southern Senate seats, and since 2005, they have usually claimed more than 70 per- cent of the region’s Senate desks. The 2004 Senate elections gave Republicans their biggest boost—a twenty-one percentage point gain. Democrats had to defend open seats in Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Republicans swept the region’s open seats as David Vitter became Louisiana’s first popularly elected Republican senator. In the 2014 GOP wave that allowed them to reclaim a Senate majority, Repub- licans dislodged Democratic senators in Arkansas, Louisiana, and North Carolina. 2211__00338866--BBuulllloocckk..iinnddbb 33 88//1122//2211 66::0088 AAMM 4 Charles S. Bullock III 100 80 60 e u al V 40 20 0 9 3 7 1 5 9 3 7 1 5 9 3 7 1 5 9 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 0 0 1 1 1 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 Year North South Figure 1.1. Percent of U.S. Senate seats held by Republicans from the South and non- South. As of 2021, the GOP had all but four southern Senate seats. In contrast, as shown in figure 1.1, Republican ranks in the rest of the nation have been below 45 percent since 2007. As with the presidency, Republican control of the Senate depends heavily on doing exceptionally well in the South. Broadening GOP House holdings in the South coincides with Republican break- throughs in presidential voting. GOP House success came initially in urban areas like Charlotte, St. Petersburg, Tulsa, and Dallas, to which Republican-leaning managers were being transferred. After 1964, as figure 1.2 shows, the GOP share of southern House seats trended upward, but with setbacks in the 1974, 1982, and 1986 mid- term elections when Republicans held the White House. When Newt Gingrich led the Republican takeover of the House in 1994, the South joined the rest of the nation in subscribing to the Contract with America. But, as shown in figure 1.2, support for the GOP in the North soon flagged even as it swelled in the South. From 1997 to 2007 and from 2011 to 2019, Republican House control rested on the South. After twelve years in the minority, Democrats regained control of the House in 2006. While the bulk of the seats they picked up came from outside the South, wins in North Carolina, Florida, and Texas contributed to the margin. As in the Senate, the erosion in GOP strength begun in 2006 continued in 2008. The drop in the Republican share of House seats across those two elections shown in figure 2211__00338866--BBuulllloocckk..iinnddbb 44 88//1122//2211 66::0088 AAMM Introduction: The South Realigns to the GOP 5 80 60 e u 40 al V 20 0 9 3 7 1 5 9 3 7 1 5 9 3 7 1 5 9 3 7 1 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 0 0 1 1 2 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 Year Northern GOP Southern GOP Figure 1.2. Percent of U.S. House seats held by Republicans from the South and non- South. 1.2 is one of the most dramatic in the time series. Enthusiastic Black turnout helped Democrats pick up seats in each state Obama won, taking three in Virginia, two in Florida, and one in North Carolina. The results of the Obama-generated enthusiasm proved short-lived as the Tea Party gained traction in reaction to Obamacare. The president’s party almost always loses ground in the midterm, but the 2010 wave elec- tion was extraordinary. Across the South, the GOP added twenty-two seats to bring its total to ninety-eight. Republican gains came in every state except Louisiana and Oklahoma, where Democrats retained one seat each. In Florida, the GOP picked up four seats and added three in Tennessee and Virginia. Double seat gains came in Alabama, Mississippi, and Arkansas. Across the region, the 2012 elections, aided by seats gained through reapportion- ment, resulted in five additional Republicans and two more Democrats going to Congress. The Arkansas and Oklahoma delegations lost their last Democrats. In North Carolina, which had been the only state with a predominantly Democratic delegation, a GOP gerrymander yielded three seats to create a 9–4 Republican ad- vantage. Democrats would have emerged from the election in much worse condition had they not picked up four Florida seats and another three in Texas. In Florida, where a popular initiative banned plans skewed to advantage a party or incumbent, the GOP lost a net of two seats. 2211__00338866--BBuulllloocckk..iinnddbb 55 88//1122//2211 66::0088 AAMM
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