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ALSO BY DANIEL YERGIN The Quest The Prize Shattered Peace COAUTHORED BY DANIEL YERGIN The Commanding Heights Russia 2010 Global Insecurity Energy Future PENGUIN PRESS An imprint of Penguin Random House LLC penguinrandomhouse.com Copyright © 2020 by Daniel Yergin Penguin supports copyright. Copyright fuels creativity, encourages diverse voices, promotes free speech, and creates a vibrant culture. Thank you for buying an authorized edition of this book and for complying with copyright laws by not reproducing, scanning, or distributing any part of it in any form without permission. You are supporting writers and allowing Penguin to continue to publish books for every reader. This page constitute an extension of this copyright page. LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING-IN-PUBLICATION DATA Names: Yergin, Daniel, author. Title: The new map : energy, climate, and the clash of nations / Daniel Yergin. Description: First Edition. | New York : Penguin Press, 2020. | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2020002299 (print) | LCCN 2020002300 (ebook) | ISBN 9781594206436 (hardcover) | ISBN 9780698191051 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Energy policy. | Renewable energy sources. | Fossil fuels. | Climatic changes—Economic aspects. | Geopolitics—Economic aspects. Classification: LCC HD9502.A2 Y468 2020 (print) | LCC HD9502.A2 (ebook) | DDC 333.79—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020002299 LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020002300 PHOTOS BY RUTH MANDEL PHOTO GALLERY BY MICHAEL BLEA AND SUE LENA THOMPSON MAPS BY VIRGINIA MASON GRAPHICS BY MATTHEW LUCKWITZ Cover design: Christopher Brian King pid_prh_5.6.0_c0_r0 To Angela, Rebecca, Alex, and Jessica Contents Introduction AMERICA’S NEW MAP 1. The Gas Man 2. The “Discovery” of Shale Oil 3. “If You Had Told Me Ten Years Ago”: The Manufacturing Renaissance 4. The New Gas Exporter 5. Closing and Opening: Mexico and Brazil 6. Pipeline Battles 7. The Shale Era 8. The Rebalancing of Geopolitics RUSSIA’S MAP 9. Putin’s Great Project 10. Crises over Gas 11. Clash over Energy Security 12. Ukraine and New Sanctions 13. Oil and the State 14. Pushback 15. Pivoting to the East 16. The Heartland CHINA’S MAP 17. The “G2” 18. “Dangerous Ground” 19. The Three Questions 20. “Count on the Wisdom of Following Generations” 21. The Role of History 22. Oil and Water? 23. China’s New Treasure Ships 24. The Test of Prudence 25. Belt and Road Building MAPS OF THE MIDDLE EAST 26. Lines in the Sand 27. Iran’s Revolution 28. Wars in the Gulf 29. A Regional Cold War 30. The Struggle for Iraq 31. The Arc of Confrontation 32. The Rise of the “Eastern Med” 33. “The Answer” 34. Oil Shock 35. Run for the Future 36. The Plague ROADMAP 37. The Electric Charge 38. Enter the Robot 39. Hailing the Future 40. Auto-Tech CLIMATE MAP 41. Energy Transition 42. Green Deals 43. The Renewable Landscape 44. Breakthrough Technologies 45. What Does “Energy Transition” Mean in the Developing World? 46. The Changing Mix Conclusion: The Disrupted Future Photographs Acknowledgments Notes Illustration Credits Index Introduction T his book is about the new global map that is being shaped by dramatic shifts in geopolitics and energy. It is also about where this map is taking us. Geopolitics focuses on the shifting balance and rising tensions among nations. Energy reflects far- reaching alterations in global supply and flows, driven in major part by the remarkable change in the energy position of the United States, and by the growing global role of renewables and the new politics of climate. Different kinds of power are in play. One is the power of nations that is shaped by economics, military capabilities, and geography; by grand strategy and calculated ambition; by suspicion and fear; and by the contingent and the unexpected. The other is the power that comes from oil and gas and coal, from wind and solar, and from splitting atoms, and the power that comes from policies that seek to reorder the world’s energy system and move toward net zero carbon in the name of climate. This is no simple map to follow, for it is dynamic, constantly changing. It has been made even more complicated by the coronavirus that swept out of China and across the planet in 2020, bringing grief and vast human suffering and disarray. It also shut down the world economy, disrupted commerce both local and global, destroyed jobs and businesses and impoverished many, plunged the world economy into the deepest recession since the Great Depression, added enormously to public debt, accentuated the tensions among countries, and created vast turmoil in global energy markets. This book seeks to illuminate and explain this new map. How the shale revolution has changed America’s position in the world. How and why new cold wars are developing between the United States on one hand, and Russia and China on the other, and energy’s role in them. How swiftly—and potentially perilously—the overall relationship between the United States and China is changing from “engagement” to “strategic rivalry” and what begins to look like an emerging cold war. How unsteady are the foundations of a Middle East that still supplies a third of the world’s total petroleum and a significant amount of natural gas. How the familiar ecosystem of oil and autos, which has held for more than a century, is now being challenged by a new mobility revolution. How climate concerns are reshaping the map of energy, and how the much-discussed “energy transition” from fossil fuels to renewables may actually play out. And how has the coronavirus changed the energy markets and the future roles of the Big Three—the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia— which now dominate world oil. — “A��’� N�� M��” �� revolution that is transforming America’s place in the world, upending world energy markets, and resetting global geopolitics. Together, shale oil and shale gas have proven to be the biggest energy innovations so far in the twenty-first century. Wind and solar are both innovations of the 1970s and 1980s, though they came into their own only over the last decade. The United States has surged ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world’s number one producer of both oil and gas, and is now one of the world’s major exporters of both. Though targeted for bans by some politicians, the shale revolution has fueled America’s economic growth, enhancing its trade position, generating investment and job creation, and lowering utility bills for millions of consumers. The supply chains supporting shale reach all across the United States, into virtually every state, creating jobs even in New York state, which prohibits shale development within its borders, owing to environmental opposition. Starting with the energy crises of the 1970s, Americans became accustomed to thinking the country was vulnerable because of U.S. dependence on imported sources. But the geopolitical consequences for the United States, now that it is almost self-sufficient, are apparent in new dimensions of influence, increased energy security,