The New Global Puzzle

254 Pages·2006·9.8 MB·English

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North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, the United States, China, India and Directed by Nicole Gnesotto and Giovanni Grevi
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Latin America. r
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Many critical junctures can be envisaged over the decades to come, from o
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Middle East. The development of the European Union into a
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the best options for driving, as opposed to enduring, change. 0
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This Report argues that the biggest challenge confronting the EU will be to ?
reconcile the emerging multipolar international system with a sustainable,
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www.iss.europa.eu
ISBN 92-9198-096-X €12
COVER.qxp 04/10/2006 15:43 Page 1
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contents.qxp 03/10/2006 12:04 Page 1
The New Global Puzzle
What World for the EU in 2025?
Directed by Nicole Gnesotto and Giovanni Grevi
Institute for Security Studies
European Union
Paris
contents.qxp 03/10/2006 12:04 Page 2
Institute for Security Studies
European Union
43 avenue du Président Wilson
75775 Paris cedex 16
tel.: [phone]
fax: [phone]
e-mail: [email protected]
www.iss.europa.eu
Director: Nicole Gnesotto
© EU Institute for Security Studies 2006. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be
reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic,
mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior permission of the EU
Institute for Security Studies.
ISBN 92-9198-096-X
Published by the EU Institute for Security Studies and printed in Condé-sur-Noireau
(France) by Corlet Imprimeur. Graphic design by Claire Mabille (Paris). Cover design
by Eurofuture.
contents.qxp 03/10/2006 12:04 Page 3
Contents
The Team 5
Introduction 7
Part I: The Trends
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Demography 15
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Economy 31
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Energy 53
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Environment 75
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Science and Technology 91
Part II: The Regions
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Eurasia and Russia 103
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The Middle East and North Africa 117
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Sub-Saharan Africa 131
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The United States 141
contents.qxp 03/10/2006 12:04 Page 4
Contents...
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China 155
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India 165
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Latin America 177
The EU in Context
The world in 2025: a snapshot 189
Three defining questions for the future 195
The European Union in context 203
Annexes
• Bibliography 215
(cid:127) Abbreviations 249
team+intro.qxp 03/10/2006 12:13 Page 5
The New Global
Puzzle
The Team
This Report is the result of a collaborative effort involving, under the leader-
ship of Director Nicole Gnesotto, the research team of the Institute and a
group of Visiting Fellows and Research Assistants whose added value to the
work of the Institute cannot be stressed enough.
Burkard Schmitt, Assistant Director at the Institute, conducted the first
stage of the Long-Term Vision project, between the end of 2005 and March
2006, with the involvement of Giovanni Grevi and Gustav Lindstrom from
among the Research Fellows. His input and leadership were decisive in
defining the scope of the exercise, drafting the first version of the Report to
the EDA, as well as managing the team. He subsequently left the Institute for
a position in the European Commission, but his name will remain associ-
ated with this publication.
Giovanni Grevi, Research Fellow at the Institute, took charge of the second
stage of the exercise: without his full-time commitment and dedication, this
project would never have been completed. He was responsible for thor-
oughly reviewing and expanding the first version of the Report, while man-
aging a team of Research Assistants, and drafting a wide range of new sec-
tions. He shared the final editing of the book with the Director .
Most of the Research Fellows of the Institute were also directly involved in
this project. Their distinctive contribution provided much added value by
bringing in specific regional expertise. In particular, they highlighted some
of the defining questions affecting the future internal and external develop-
ments of key countries and regions. In this context, special mention should
be made of their work, including :
Dov Lynchon Russia and Eurasia;
Walter Poschon the Middle East and the Mediterranean;
Pierre-Antoine Braudon Sub-Saharan Africa;
Marcin Zaborowski on the United States;
Martin Ortegaon Latin America;
and Gustav Lindstromon Science and Technology.
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team+intro.qxp 03/10/2006 12:13 Page 6
The New Global Puzzle
s,
s, A team of Research Assistants worked throughout the spring and summer
5,
of 2006 collecting and reviewing relevant sources, checking, completing,
e, and analysing all the facts and figures that form the basis of the Report and
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n providing their own insight and advice on a number of issues.
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e Stéphane Deloryhas been involved as Research Assistant since the very
d beginning of the project and his key contribution deserves a special men-
aet
tion. Vincent Vicard, who joined the team in spring, was responsible for the
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economic dimension of the study. Christian Burckhardt,Johan Edqvist,
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Sophie de Laboulaye, Bastien Nivet, Patrizia Pompili, Andras Roth,
n,
il Nathalie Stanusand Daniel Steinvorthalso participated in the project.
S Last but not least, the Institute’s English-language editor, Gearóid Cronin,
c did an excellent job in polishing up the final draft of the Report.
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team+intro.qxp 03/10/2006 12:13 Page 7
Introduction The New Global
Puzzle
Nicole Gnesotto
The background to the project
At the end of 2005, the European Defence Agency (EDA) invited the Euro-
pean Union Institute for Security Studies to participate in the development
of an initial Long-Term Vision (LTV) study for European capability and
capacity needs in the field of ESDP. The task of the EUISS was to prepare, on
the basis of existing relevant studies, a report on the global context in which
the European Security and Defence Policy will operate in 2025. Our mission
was not to foretell the future but to assess the most likely developments in
several key areas, on the basis of existing open sources. Other EU bodies were
involved in this project, addressing the military, industrial and technologi-
cal dimensions of the Long-Term Vision, under the leadership of the EDA.
The Institute completed its work and delivered a ‘Global Context Study’
to the EDA in March 2006. Since then, the EDA has been working on the
elaboration of a comprehensive Long-Term Vision for future ESDP needs.
The Agency will present the final output of the project to Member States
under its sole responsibility.
For our part, we felt that the EUISS contribution to the EDA-led project
provided a good basis on which to deepen and expand the Institute’s reflec-
tion on the actors and factors shaping the global context of European inte-
gration. The resulting report, The New Global Puzzle – What World for the EU in
2025?, in no way represents the official position of the European Union on
any specific subject. Nor does it engage any Member State to endorse its
findings and conclusions. As is the case for all the other publications of the
Institute, an independent think-tank at the service of CFSP, the contents of
this publication are the sole responsibility of the Institute.
The structure of the Report
The first part of this Report analyses major long-term trends in five key
areas, namely demography, the economy, energy, the environment and sci-
ence and technology. Since most of these trends differ considerably between
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The New Global Puzzle
the various parts of the world, the general analysis is complemented, where
appropriate, by a more detailed examination by region. On the basis of this
work, in the second part of the Report the Institute’s team presents seven
regional outlooks. These combine the main facts and figures highlighted in
the first part of the Report with an evaluation of the key political factors
influencing the future evolution of major regions and countries. Separate
sections belonging to the first and the second parts of the Report have been
drafted with a view to being stand-alone. It should be noted that this
approach inevitably entails a degree of repetition between the thematic and
regional sections. The last part of the Report includes a broader perspective
on the state of the international system by 2025, highlights some key politi-
cal questions and focuses on the EU itself.
The purpose of the Report
This Report does not aim at predicting what the world (and the EU) will look
like twenty years from now – an impossible task. Rather, the Institute has
undertaken a wide-ranging exercise whose aim is to identify the long-term
trends, factors and actors shaping the global environment of European
integration — The New Global Puzzle. The purpose of this project consists in
providing the European public and decision-makers with a better under-
standing of the variables influencing the evolution of the international system
in which the EU will have to act.
Too often European integration is regarded as an insular process,
advancing or stalling depending on endogenous, intra-European variables
only. Absorbed in endless debates on the reform of their political, economic
and social structures, there is a risk that the EU and its Member States may
lose sight of the momentous developments taking place beyond their bor-
ders, yet affecting their own future. This Report advances a strong plea for
the debate on the integration of Europe to be set both ‘in context’ and ‘in
perspective’.
As such, this Report does not focus on the EU itself, nor on the evolution
and destination of the process of continental integration. The future of the
Union is uncertain: how many Member States will have joined the EU by
2025? What level of cooperation and integration will be achieved and in
which areas? The answers to these questions will be crucial for Europe’s
capacity to cope with the political, economic, demographic, energy and
security challenges that lie ahead. However, focusing on global develop-
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